Jan 20, 2025
PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) - We have had a cold month so far. There have been many days lately with high temps only in the 30s. So far we have only had about 3 days with a high temperature of 50 degrees or more. It wasn't too bad over the weekend. We had highs in the 50s Saturday and 40s yesterday. However, a strong cold front has passed through since then. Now that front is dropping to our south. Live Interactive Radar Regional Weather Map High pressure is building in from the west. We will be colder today. High temps will only be in the mid 30s in our region. Wind chills will be in the 20s. Temps VS Wind Chills This will impact any local outdoor events for MLK day. It will be rough up in D.C. for any outdoor events connected to Inauguration Day. Local MLK Jr. Day events Inauguration Day Forecast They moved the actual ceremony inside, but there will probably be a lot of folks outside celebrating. At least we'll all be dry today with fair skies. Around here winds will gust up to 20mph out of the northwest. They should taper off this afternoon. By tonight some super cold air will arrive into the region. We'll have mostly clear skies and lighter winds. Plus, the air will be super dry. Dew points are dropping from the teens to the single digits. Click here to subscribe to WAVY's Severe Weather email alerts. Dew Points This setup will allow outdoor temps to drop down to the teens over most of the area. There may even be a couple of single digit readings in a couple of inland spots. Tonight's Forecast There won't be much wind, but there will be enough to create a few wind chills in the single digits to near zero degrees. We'll be dry through the day tomorrow. We will probably have a thin to medium veil of clouds. However, high temps will only be in the upper 20s. Forecast Temps Tomorrow During the day tomorrow an area of low pressure will be far down to our southwest. It will be gaining some strength as it moves east/northeast. The low is forecast to pass to our south and move offshore tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. It should strengthen even more as that happens. It will (try) to push some moisture up into our region. However, it's tough to say how far north that moisture will get. This is important as the snow will also have a tough time pushing northward into that super dry airmass. Having said that...Future Trak's morning run today had the snow pushing as far north as the Peninsula, Mobjack Bay, and the lower Eastern Shore late tomorrow night. Future Trak Tuesday Night It then has the snow pushing back south again into Wednesday morning. Future Trak Wednesday Morning It finally wraps things up as a few flurries Wednesday morning. As you can tell the higher chance for snow will be closer to the low to the southeast, and that's where the higher amounts are forecast (on our model). Future Trak Snow Forecast However, the models are all handling the dry air and moisture differently. The GFS model has hardly any snow pushing up this way, but it does have some snow over the Outer Banks. GFS Model Late Tuesday Night The GFS and Euro models have the lightest amounts (as of this writing). The hi-res NAM really doesn't have much. Here are 4 of the models. Snow Forecast I will say that they have been bouncing around quite a bit. The strength and speed of the low are also getting handled differently. The National Weather Service model has also bounced around too. For the last couple of days it had been consistently showing accumulations of over an inch. (As far as I remember). This morning it updated and came down with much lower amounts. NWS Snow Forecast Tue Night - Wed AM So putting all the forecasts together here is what I have for the snowfall forecast. Snowfall Forecast All the models have at least something for coastal North Carolina. There are a couple of models that suggest over 3" could even still fall over that area. I've got 1-3" from the Outer Banks up into Southern Virginia Beach. However, I only have about a half an inch up to an inch for the metro up to Mobjack Bay and the lower Eastern Shore. I don't have a lot of confidence in the numbers, but I am confident in the trend (higher amounts to the southeast). The one thing that is easy is that there is no mix or melt this time. Anything that falls will stick. However, I think the snow type will be a very dry/fine snow which doesn't tend to add up to much. We'll see. We still have some time. We'll hopefully have a more confident forecast by later today as the models get a better handle on the dry air and in the position/speed of the low. Regardless, of the snow chance... We will drop to the teens again Wednesday morning, and we will only top off in the mid-upper 20s Wednesday afternoon. Forecast Temps Wednesday We'll be dry on Thursday as temps warm a little. Highs are aiming for the upper 30s. That will be the first time that we'll get above the freezing mark after this afternoon. So it is definitely time to slow-drip the faucets. Even if you haven't lately. Be sure to bring in the pets. Check on your neighbors. Also make sure you have the proper gear for going outside. If kids don't have a scarf, then they can use a small towel. Gloves will be needed to avoid frostbite. If you get frostbite, then run your hands under warm or cool water. Do not use hot water!!! There is another shot at a possible mix or a little snow Thursday night, but I want to get through the next 24 hours before I really start getting into that batch of precip. Either way the afternoon temps look warmer later this week into the weekend. Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
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