HONOLULU (KHON2) - We should continue to see stable and dry conditions through Tuesday. The one exception is around mid day Monday into Monday evening, when a band of cumulus clouds is expected to move in from the north and could produce a few light sprinkles over windward and mauka areas. This band of cumulus clouds is seen on satellite and is currently located near 25N. Starting Tuesday, trade winds will weaken due to a developing area of low pressure northwest of the state. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern of an upper level trough moving through the state Wednesday and eventually becoming a cut off low centered north of the state Thursday through rest of the week. The general pattern is for a front to move west to east across the state Wednesday into Thursday with gusty southwest winds and showers and possibly thunderstorms ahead of the front. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength of the front with the ECMWF showing stronger solution with more instability, which will increase the threat for thunderstorms and flash flooding. With the ensemble members showing a solution closer to the ECMWF, the forecast has been nudged toward the ECMWF solution. Starting Friday, weather conditions should generally improve across the state as the upper level low lifts further north and away from the state. Winds will likely be light or remain out of the westerly direction with some scattered showers still possible. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Southeast Waters.