A new county report has flagged 18 local homelessness programs that depend, at least in part, on money at risk of disappearing. But that problem is rooted in a bigger mess. Service organizations have long had to rely on funding from a range of sources, from federal grants to one-off donations, making their work dependent on a patchwork of benefactors with differing rules and deadlines. This can complicate everything from long-term planning to keeping reliable staff. “We start every year and every budget cycle from scratch on homelessness funding,” said Alex Visotzky, a California policy fellow at the National Alliance to End Homelessness. “This is a crisis that’s been decades in the making, and we’re gonna need ongoing commitment to get out.” Together, expiring and at-risk funds account for a significant chunk, about $94 million, of what has been budgeted on those dozen-plus initiatives. Local leaders are calling for a more stable source of money — the head of the Regional Task Force on Homelessness has said making that change is key to continuing the county’s recent progress on reducing the crisis, while San Diego’s independent budget analyst has warned of an over-dependence on outside grants — and residents have signaled support for one option. It’s just tied up in court. In 2020, a large majority of voters in the city of San Diego approved a tax hike on hotels, known as Measure C, which could eventually bring in millions of dollars for homeless services. Yet critics have both questioned whether the money would be spent effectively and argued that a two-thirds vote was required, leaving the measure stalled. Even if the proposal continues to prevail before judges, the tax likely wouldn’t begin for at least a year. In the meantime, elected leaders are staring down budget deficits at the local and state levels, and President-elect Donald Trump could overhaul which programs receive federal dollars. Marc Dones, policy director for UC San Francisco’s Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative, recommended that service organizations explore using more entitlement funding — government aid that generally comes with deeper (and longer-term) budgets. One example is CalAIM, an expansion of California’s health care system for low-income residents that can now help get people housing. Yes, the paperwork is complicated, Dones said. But CalAIM could make a sizable dent in how many people sleep outside. “We have to use it.” San Diego County’s recent “Enterprise-wide Homelessness Assessment,” the report that highlighted the funding gaps, similarly concluded that CalAIM needs to be part of the solution. The 18 programs facing possible cuts include initiatives that put up homeless residents in hotels (through the Regional Homeless Assistance Program), provide space to safely sleep in cars (Magnolia Safe Parking Program), clear encampments (Harmony Cleanup and Abatement) and help older adults on the brink of homelessness stay housed (Pilot Shallow Rental Subsidy Program). Leaders must advocate “for more flexible funding options at the State and Federal level to cover more essential support services,” the report said, “including mental health care, substance use treatment, emergency shelter, and rapid rehousing efforts.” One pot of money that’s running low is the American Rescue Plan Act, the federal aid package passed in the wake of the pandemic. That funding must be spent by the end of 2026. Another source that could dry up is California’s Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention Grant Program, or HHAP. The state Legislature considered cutting those grants from the last budget and lawmakers only brought them back after a pressure campaign from a number of mayors, including Todd Gloria. Yet the program’s future is far from guaranteed. County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer believes several workarounds are possible. For one, she’s optimistic that HHAP won’t completely disappear, even if it’s reduced. Two, she thinks the demand for hotel vouchers especially will drop as the county invests in more shelter options, including the dozens of tiny cabins scheduled to be built in Lemon Grove. That still leaves up in the air initiatives like rental aid for adults who are at least 55 years old. More than 380 participants are currently getting $500 a month for rent. But the county previously invited researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to study whether that effort is actually preventing homelessness, and positive results could simplify fundraising, Lawson-Remer said. “It’s so much easier to get funding for programs that work.” It’s not clear whether the rest of the board agrees with her conclusions. Joel Anderson declined comment while representatives for Monica Montgomery Steppe and Jim Desmond didn’t respond to requests for comment. Furthermore, revised spending plans may have to wait until at least this spring, when South County voters choose a new representative following Nora Vargas’ surprise decision to not serve another term. The other programs relying on unstable funding are the Housing and Disability Advocacy Program, the Local Rental Subsidy Program, Community Harm Reduction Team, Housing Our Youth, Housing Navigation and Case Management Services, Bringing Families Home, Landlord Incentive Program, Community Care Coordination Straight to Home, Flexible Housing Pool, Innovative Housing and Services for LGBTQ+, Specialized Funding for Imminent Needs, Home Safe, LGBTQ+ Enhanced Affirming Services and No Place Like Home.