Three things of about a thousand I could discuss when it comes to what might be an absolute classic Sunday in Orchard Park... Priority One Soo... uhh... the Bills have to be better against Derrick Henry this time. There's lots of reason to be optimistic. The return of Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano and Taron Johnson for the rematch is right at the top of the list. It's not just that the Bills were missing three starters for week four in Baltimore, they were missing an entire level of the defense. They were also missing three of the top five most talented players on the defense. Throw in the head injury to Taylor Rapp that knocked him out for more than a half and Buffalo should be playing with nearly a brand new deck for game two against the Ravens. Just because the Bills will have more help this time doesn't mean the results will automatically be different. "We gotta do our job," Bernard said. "It doesn't matter who was out there. It doesn't matter who wasn't out there. We have a job to do and we have to execute." The good news is the Bills have been doing their job stopping the run at a much better level as of late. Over the first 12 games of the season, Buffalo was allowing 4.9 yards per rush. That number is down to 3.7 yards over the last six games. Milano's return coincides with that change a bit, but it would be unfair to layer all the credit there. The defensive line has been better. Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones have been better creating headaches at the point of attack. Defensive backs have done a better job of contributing to the run stops. Buffalo proved against the Lions they can contain an elite running game. Baltimore is the elite of elite run games, but it feels like a repeat of the mauling Buffalo took in week four would be a stunner. Is Bigger Badder? The bigger concern for the Bills might actually be their run game. Buffalo rolled over the number two run defense last week for 210 yards. This week, they face the number one group in Baltimore. And we might find out if size really does matter. The Ravens starting interior defensive linemen go 305, 338, 315. That's 30 pounds heavier per man than the Broncos starters in a similar defensive scheme. Only the Titans are bigger on the D-Line among teams using a 3-4 base scheme. Those same Titans were the only defense to allow Buffalo less than the 81 rush yards they managed in Baltimore four months ago. Just trying to run might make a difference for the Bills. Back in week four, only five of the first 21 plays were running back carries. James Cook ran for 22 yards on four touches. All four were successful plays. Penalties and sacks and game situation mandated some of staying away from the backs, but the Bills plan was clearly to come out firing. By play 22, the Ravens had a 21-3 lead and the Bills spent the rest of the night chasing. Josh Allen always has the potential to carry the offense for long stretches, but the development of the run option is a big reason why 30-point games have become near automatic. Joe Brady must find a way to get some production on the ground this week. Season Of Kicker Discontent Both Tyler Bass and Justin Tucker have missed ten kicks this year. Bass has been wide on five field goals and five extra points. Tucker's misses are two PATs and eight FGs, including five from 50-plus. Curiously, Bass is perfect on kicks from over 50 yards (4-for-4) for the first time in his career. The Bills have gotten away with the Bass inconsistency. Buffalo is 7-1 in games where Bass has a miss (discounting the New England season finale). They even won a pair of one-score games (Detroit and at the Jets) where every Bass miss was conveniently negated by matching miss on the other side. Baltimore, on the other hand, has been punished severely for Tucker's problems. The Ravens are 2-5 in games where Tucker has missed a kick. Those five losses were by a total of 22 points and, in those games, Tucker missed kicks worth a total of... you guessed it... 22 points. Tucker is likely the number one reason Sunday's game is in Orchard Park and not Baltimore. In a tight contest that could easily come down to one swing of the leg, neither team is going to feel all that confident if it's their guy who needs to make. Betting Things Allen was on track to hit 50 yards rushing last week, but a couple of lightning bolt touchdowns sucked all the uncertainty out of the game and backed the Bills off the need to run him. He still went over his rushing line, but fell four yards short of my play. I dropped to 8-10 for the season and I'm now in the red 1.5 units. Even as the Ravens secondary has improved over the last few weeks, they are still allowing big plays. This defense is strong up the middle with a large, imposing defensive line, Roquan Smith at linebacker and Kyle Hamilton at safety. The edges are where teams are finding success. Baltimore opponents have hit at least one 30-yard completion over each of the last four games. Corners Nate Wiggins and Brandon Stephens are the vulnerable spots. The Bills have not needed to make use of a receiver that can just win on the edges, but they do have one. At least theoretically. Amari Cooper is another player Buffalo will have in this meeting with the Ravens that did not play back in week four. While Cooper has been lightly used for the Bills, he has flashed in higher leverage games--55 yards against the Chiefs and 95 against the Rams. His best contribution in Buffalo is as a release valve. An option for Allen to take a shot with down the field when things are breaking down. I can easily see this game as a spot where those skills would come in handy. Keon Coleman is another possibility for this type of play and he's gotten 19 deep targets this year, but those targets have only added up to 96 yards. Cooper is the more efficient, more trustworthy option. His receiving yards line in most places is 22.5. My play is going to be a big bigger (Yes, I know. I'm a slow learner). FanDuel is offering odds of +102 if Cooper can reach just 25 yards. It might only take one of those deeper throws to hit. Brady's use of Cooper has been curious. His route tree has been somewhat limited, but Cooper has not impressed at the level that was expected when the Bills traded for him. It's not impossible Buffalo has been saving Cooper for the right game. This week might be it. The Pick The way the Bills offensive line has played lately and Allen's playoff record make it feel like a near lock both play at a high level Sunday. No doubt the Ravens defensive line offers a challenge of a different girth. Maybe they're just too big for the Bills. I was impressed enough by how the offensive line performed last week against another very good group up front in the Broncos to think otherwise. Allen's playoff numbers aren't ridiculously good, outside the 2021 playoff run, but he has been consistently dependable at this time of year. He's avoided turnovers in five of his last seven playoff games. His average game is 300 yards combined and three total touchdowns. Allen is gonna get his. The same can't yet be said for Jackson. Baltimore's QB has had a superb year. He's improved in a number of passing metrics that used to trouble him. His season has been plenty worthy of the MVP award he now seems likely to win (even if I think Allen was just a bit more deserving). However, Jackson is yet to play at an elite level in a big time playoff game. To be fair, this is a three game sample size. Those three games have featured six turnovers against just two touchdowns. Jackson's completion percentage has never topped even 60 percent. One of those is the 17-3 loss in Buffalo four years ago where Jackson didn't play the fourth quarter, but his Ravens totaled just 25 points in those three games. Jackson has actually been one of the most consistent QBs this season with less bad games than any other QB, including Allen. If playoff Lamar shows up in Orchard Park however, the Bills might win without needing much nail biting. The key for the Bills is to make him uncomfortable. Baltimore showed what happens when their run game is cooking. They got on top of a pretty good Steelers defense last week with a 13-play touchdown drive that was all runs. They buried Pittsburgh with a 44 yard Henry house call. As long as Baltimore can live in their powerful, varied run game world, they are near impossible to beat. Buffalo's best shot to win is by turning Jackson into a passer either by slowing Henry and the ground game or by scoring enough points to make the Ravens chase. He might still beat Buffalo anyway. He's been that good this year. In this game, Jackson is the quarterback on the road. He's the quarterback playing in a level of cold that's more unfamiliar. He's the quarterback who likely will be missing a top weapon. Zay Flowers leads the Ravens in receptions and receiving yards, but is doubtful to play with a knee injury. Buffalo is as healthy as they've been for a divisional round game in three years. Only Ray Davis is questionable trying to clear concussion protocol. The Bills are loose and confident. Dion Dawkins did a press conference this week wearing snow goggles he's hoping will be a hit at the team store. I've heard some national reporters picking the Ravens based on the sheer force of Jackson and the physically imposing run game. They could easily be right. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken is really good at keeping the eyes of defenders moving. The Bills had heads spinning most of the night back in September trying to keep this offense straight. I think Buffalo's run defense has improved enough to keep Henry from destroying this game. I think the Bills have enough confidence and enough ability up front to get their own running backs moving. I think Cooper might be the X-factor that's not getting enough oxygen in the lead up to Sunday. I think the Bills win and I think they do it a bit on the comfortable side. One big caveat: I thought the exact same thing heading into week four. In fact, my prediction this week is nearly identical to the 34-21 win I expected for the first meeting in September. BillsMafia won't mind as long as I'm right this time. Give me the Bills 31-21.