Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images Our preview, statistical breakdown, and prediction for Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders in the Division Round of the NFL playoffs. The Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders face off for a spot in the NFC Championship game on Saturday night. If Vegas odds are any indication, the public seems to think the Lions are clear favorites in this matchup. At the time of writing this, Detroit is 9.5-point favorites, the biggest line of the week. However, bettors have been feasting on the Lions this year, so that may not be the most accurate reflection of this matchup. So let’s jump into the nitty gritty of Lions vs. Commanders with our statistical breakdown, preview, and prediction. It’s time for Divisional Round On Paper! Note: DVOA rankings do not include postseason performances Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA) vs. Commanders pass defense (20th) The Lions’ pass offense has been their most consistent unit all season. Jared Goff has really only had a couple of rough games, and most were concentrated right at the start of the year while the offense knocked off some rust. Since then, Goff has been playing at a level that has kept him just outside the MVP conversation. He ranks: Second in passing yards (4,629) Fourth in passing touchdowns (37) Second in yards per attempt (8.6) Second in passer rating (111.8) Sixth in QBR (68.5) Third in dropback EPA (0.267) First in dropback success rate (53.6%) So while DVOA may have the Lions at sixth in passing defense, I have them firmly in the top five, probably in the top three. Part of what makes them dangerous is the myriad of weapons they have. Four different players (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs) have caught at least 50 passes this season. Detroit is just one of five teams who accomplished that this season (Buccaneers, Bengals, Falcons, Dolphins). If there is a weakness to Detroit’s passing game, it’s oddly their pass protection. It’s not a huge liability, but considering the offensive line’s reputation, it is a bit surprising to see their pedestrian ranking in several categories. They’re 15th in pressure rate (33.5%), 17th in PFF’s pass blocking grade (68.6), and 12th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. Left guard Graham Glasgow has been the biggest liability, allowing a team-high 36 pressures, while left tackle Taylor Decker has allowed eight sacks. If there’s a side to attack, it’s Detroit’s left. However, keep an eye on right guard as well—Kevin Zeitler has yet to practice this week, which could mean rookie Christian Mahogany gets his second career start. Washington’s defense started out atrociously, but has been a more average unit as of late. Yardage totals look like this could be a better unit than they actually are, and that’s because teams are running all over them, despite often trailing in these games. The Commanders have faced the second-fewest pass attempts in the NFL, which is pretty shocking for a 12-5 team. You’d think teams would be throwing more to play catch up, but most of Washington’s win have been close enough for teams to stay true to their run game. Anyway, in their first year under defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn, they’ve been a relatively below-average unit. They rank: 16th in yards per attempt (7.0) 19th in passer rating (93.9) 22nd dropback EPA (0.099) 13th in dropback success rate (45.7%) But as you may expect, when it comes to the first year in a new defensive scheme, they’ve gotten better as the season has progressed. Here are those same statistics in the back half of the season (Week 10 and beyond): 6.2 yards per attempt 5th in passer rating (84.5) 18th dropback EPA (0.116) 4th in dropback success rate (42.8%) 18th in DVOA We’re talking bottom half of the league to top 10 in some categories. That said, the Commanders struggle to put pressure on quarterback and cover. They rank 17th in pressure percentage and 16th in PFF pass rush grade despite the fact that they blitz more often than all but five teams (32.9% rate). In terms of coverage, they rank 29th in PFF grade, and their best cornerback may be rookie Mike Sainristil—although getting Marshon Lattimore back from injury could be big for them. Still, Washington manages to keep it all together thanks to sound defense and good coaching. Player to watch: Frankie Luvu. Washington’s do-it-all linebacker can be a threat both in coverage (seven passes defended, one INT) and pass rush (8.0 sacks, 36 pressures). Advantage: Lions +2.5. Very few teams have figured out a way to slow the Lions’ passing attack, and I don’t think the Commanders have the horses to do so. The only thing that concerns me in this matchup is Washington’s duo of linebackers (Luvu and Bobby Wagner). Goff sometimes struggles against good linebacking corps, and that is undoubtedly the strength of this defense. Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Commanders run defense (26th) The Lions have rushed for at least 120 rushing yards in 13 of 17 games this season. They’ve hit at least 4.6 yards per carry in 10 of their games. And while they were in a bit of a rut over the past month or so, they’ve still managed to control the game with their rushing game, even if that is not reflected by their yards per carry average. When you look at efficiency through DVOA and EPA, it becomes clear just how successful the Lions are on the ground. They’re second in DVOA for the season and sixth just counting the back half. They’re fifth in EPA and fourth in success rate for the season—ranking 10th and seventh in those metrics since the halfway point in the season. They’re easily a top-10 unit in football, and a good case can be made for them being top-five. While the offensive line has been mediocre as a pass blocking unit, their dominance in run blocking cannot be denied. They’re third in PFF grade, 10th in yards before contact per carry, and first in adjusted line yards. They’re also dominant in short yardage situations (ninth in power success rate) and rarely get stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage (seventh-lowest “stuffed” rate). And to help out that specific area of the running game, the Lions are getting bruising back David Montgomery back this week, too. Much has been said this week about the Commanders’ poor run defense, some of it true, some of it exaggerated. Most have pointed to their 137.5 rushing yards allowed per game and 4.8 yards per carry allowed—both 30th in the NFL. But as you can see from the chart above, they’ve improved pretty drastically over the last two months. They still aren’t a good run defense—they’ve allowed an average of 147.0 rushing yards and 4.67 a carry over the last four games—but they stopped the hemorrhaging. For the season, the Commanders rank 27th in rush EPA and 24th in success rate. But if we look at their performance since Week 12, they’re 13th in both rush EPA and success rate. So, yes, the this is a mismatch in favor of the Lions, but I think the tilt has been largely exaggerated this week. Player to watch: Both guards. Detroit’s weak spots on the line could be both guards. Glasgow has struggled all year, but he’s been better at run blocking than when in pass protection. And while Mahogany has looked good in limited appearances this year, he’s still a rookie with almost no experience. That said, Washington’s defensive tackles have not played well this year. Jonathan Allen (38.8 PFF run grade, 125th out of 14) and Daron Payne (49.6, 86th) are both former first-round picks and former Pro Bowlers, but both look like their best days might be behind them. Advantage: Lions +2. Having Montgomery back should give Detroit the versatility to run whatever they want, whoever they want, and whenever they want. But don’t discount the Commanders’ recent improvement, and the injury to one of Detroit’s best run blockers, Kevin Zeitler (87.2 PFF grade, second in NFL). Commanders pass offense (9th) vs. Lions pass defense (4th) It’s been a magical rookie season for Jayden Daniels and he only seems to be getting better. After a three-game midseason lull, Daniels has had a passer rating of at least 99.0 in six straight games. While this isn’t the type of offense that airs it out for 300 yards a game (they rank 17th in passing yards per game), their efficiency is among the best in the NFL. Washington ranks: Seventh in passer rating (102.5) 12th in yards per attempt (7.5) Fourth in dropback EPA (0.211) 11th in success rate (49.6%) What’s odd about that most recent “successful” six-game stretch is that Daniels’ yards per attempt has actually plummeted over that time. He’s averaged 7.5 Y/A all season, but over the last six games, that’s down to 5.9, suggesting some of the efficiency is actually significantly down. It’s only bolstered by higher touchdown numbers, as Daniels has thrown 15 touchdowns over the last six games, compared to just 12 touchdowns in the previous 12 games. In terms of overall success rate, he’s still hovering right around 50%—his season-long average, which is good enough to squeeze in to the bottom of the top-10. The success of the Commanders’ offensive line is dependent on which metrics you trust. They rank 22nd in PFF pass blocking grade and are tied for the seventh-most sacks allowed (50). But ESPN ranks them ninth in pass block win rate, and they’ve allowed the ninth-lowest pressure rate, per NFL Pro. I think it’s probably safe to say that Daniels may be a bit responsible for the low pressure rate but high sack rate, but there are vulnerabilities in the offensive line, particularly at left tackle. Third-round rookie Brandon Coleman has allowed nine sacks this year, per PFF—more than all but three offensive tackles in football. In terms of receivers, the bulk of Washington’s production comes from two targets: Terry McLaurin (1,096 yards, 13 TDs) and Zach Ertz (654 yards, 7 TDs). What the hell am I supposed to do with this? Injuries clearly caught up to the Lions in their first matchup against the Bears on Thanksgiving, and then everything is perfectly fine again when Alex Anzalone comes back? That’s certainly not a statistically sound conclusion based on a single game, but their performance against the Vikings was certainly outstanding—even if the Rams did the exact same thing to them last week. I’m not going to go heavy into the data here because it’s hard to know what to trust right now—and you can see pretty much everything you need to in that chart. The pass defense was fantastic for the first 2.5 months of the season, it completely fell apart for five weeks, and now it may or may not be back. Anzalone is certainly a difference-maker—especially when you consider he was being replaced by LB6, not LB2 or LB3. But can he really stabilize everything? Before we get into the advantage, I do want to share one statistic that has shaken me to my core... in a good way: Since week 11:Lions pressure rate when rushing 4 or fewer: 39.3% (1st)Lions overall pressure rate: 38.9% (2nd)per @NextGenStats https://t.co/PHxH2BdrX2— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 16, 2025 I don’t know how that’s possibly true, but Aaron Glenn is a wizard if Next Gen Stats is accurate. Player to watch: Ertz. The veteran tight end has become a security blanket for Daniels, particularly in the red zone. Ertz has six touchdowns in his last eight games. He’s also produced 38 first downs for the Commanders, which is Ertz’s highest production since 2019! Advantage: Draw. I don’t know. I have no idea. While I don’t think it’s likely Daniels throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns against this defense, I can’t completely rule it out, either. Could Aaron Glenn develop a pressure plan that confuses Daniels? Yeah, certainly. Why not? There’s just too much uncertainty and weird, inconsistent data here for me to come up with a conclusion. Here’s an example of inconsistent data: According to NFL Pro, Jayden Daniels ranks fourth in EPA/play and seventh in passer rating against the blitz But according to FTN Fantasy, Daniels ranks 20th and 11th in those exact same metrics This is why they play the game on the field and not in the spreadsheets. If I had to give a hunch, I think the Commanders may be able to move the ball a little bit through the air, but I don’t expect a lot of explosive plays. Commanders run offense (7th) vs. Lions run defense (10th) There’s not much uncertainty here. The Commanders have one of the best rushing attacks in football. Sure, their numbers are juiced up by Daniels’ league-leading amount of scrambles, but that’s all in play this week. Daniels leads the team with 891 rushing yards, but Brian Robinson (799, 4.3 YPC) is not far behind him. Combine it all and the Commanders rank fourth in rush EPA, third in success rate, and fourth in yards per carry. Damn the DVOA ranking, this is a top-five rushing attack. The offensive line is another mixed bag, depending on metrics. They’re 27th in PFF run blocking grade, but second in ESPN run block win rate. So... go figure. The one thing to consider—and it pains me to say this—is that they run a ton of designed quarterback runs on the same level that Josh Allen and the Bills do. Daniels has 62 designed runs this season, which is actually significantly more than Allen (50). Only Lamar Jackson (79) and Hurts (87) have more. Detroit has particularly struggled with those (think back to Allen, Anthony Richardson). I wouldn’t pay much attention to that final cell. Detroit gave up one 58-yard run, and held the Vikings to just 62 yards on 18 carries the rest of the day (3.4 YPC). Detroit has definitely been more susceptible to poor defensive games against the run than they were last year, but it’s more good than bad. For the season, they rank seventh in rush EPA, fourth in success rate, and 22nd in yards per carry allowed. To be fair, though, Detroit’s EPA and success rate drop to 13th and sixth if just looking at the back half of the season. Player to watch: Lions’ EDGE players. With containment being key this week, pressure will be on the Lions’ edge defenders to keep Daniels caged in. PFF hasn’t been particularly kind to the team’s healthy edge defenders: Za’Darius Smith has a 57.1 PFF run defense grade, Al-Quadin Muhammad is at 48.7, Josh Paschal: 62.5. Advantage: Commanders + 2. Washington has rushed for over 200 yards six times this season. They’re extremely dangerous, and could very well replicate what the Bills did a few weeks back. Anzalone’s return should help settle that down a bit, but Detroit remains very beat up and vulnerable on their defensive line, and Washington’s use of misdirection could really challenge their discipline. Last game’s prediction: Needless to say, I was completely caught off guard by the Lions’ defensive performance, so my 38-35 Lions prediction looks silly, despite being “correct” both overall and against the spread (Lions -2.5). I’m not sure how ready I am to buy in on the Lions’ defensive issues being fixed, but this week will be just as much of a test against a top-10 offense. In the comment section, cln_pwr2 FINALLY got the win with their weekly 30-10 prediction (final score was 31-9). Here’s your prize: Can we just take a moment to appreciate that during the month of January, the Red Wings are 6-1 [Editor’s note: And just beat the defending Stanley Cup Champions in their own barn on national TV!], the Pistons are 7-2, and the Lions are the Divisional Round. And that’s all coming off an incredible run from the Tigers. This game’s prediction: The Lions come out with just a +2.5 advantage, but with my uncertainty about the Lions’ pass defense, that could easily be made up by another strong game from Daniels. He’s coming off one of his best career games, so I wouldn’t discount it. But when it comes down to it, the Lions offense has been better, more consistent, and more explosive than Washington all year, and Detroit’s defense—while not at their best right now—has been good far more often than the Commanders. The current trajectory of these teams has me believing it’ll be closer than the spread, but the Lions should still come out on top. Lions 34, Commanders 27.