Jan 17, 2025
Here’s a first since we began regularly polling Chicagoans more than two years ago: Housing is now the chief worry for at least one large segment of the population, ahead of public safety and taxes, the concerns perennially at the top of everyone’s list. That segment? The nearly 1 million households in Cook County who are renters. Two out of three tenants today are concerned about housing affordability and availability, according to our latest research. And for good reason: Two-thirds say they’re spending at least 30% of their household income on rent, with 25% saying housing eats up more than half their paychecks. Almost half of them, moreover, say their situation is worse than it was a year ago. The squeeze is tightest for younger adults. Among those younger than 35 — ages when many become first-time homebuyers — 40% say they’ve been priced out of their current neighborhoods, and 1 in 5 say they’ve considered moving to a cheaper place. About 1 in 7 also say they’re behind on payments or dealing with something else making their lives unstable. Our findings suggest that Mayor Brandon Johnson and members of the City Council are right to focus on increasing Chicago’s stock of affordable housing. The city is planning to spend $150 million, for example, to subsidize the conversion of four vacant office towers in the Loop into apartments, including units rented at affordable rates.  Just over half of Chicago residents — renters and homeowners alike — support the conversions. A plurality of 41% also endorse the expansion of a pilot program that permits property owners to build accessory dwelling units or granny flats behind single-family homes as a way to add affordable housing throughout the city. These efforts come with political risk for Johnson, however. That centerpiece downtown plan would create only 319 apartments at below market-rate rents and has a construction timeline that stretches into 2027. Delivering that little that late could make the mayor’s promises look hollow as he seeks reelection in what’s expected to be a challenging race. Many local homeowners say they’re stretched to the breaking point, too. High taxes remain homeowners’ chief complaint, with public safety next. Unlike renters, many homeowners just got walloped with property tax bills and reassessments that went up by double digits. And most owner-occupants can take comfort in having locked in mortgage payments years ago, shielding them from annual rent hikes that tenants are hit with. Still, a third of homeowners in the city and close-in suburbs say they are spending at least 30% of their income on housing, with 1 in 10 saying these expenses consume more than half their income. A third say their housing costs are more burdensome today than they were last year, and a quarter say they couldn’t afford to buy a home in their neighborhood today. Local residents aren’t alone, of course, in struggling to keep a roof over their heads. Across the country, income growth has lagged behind the rise of home costs throughout this century, which explains why three-quarters of renters and owners said in a recent national survey that housing is becoming less affordable where they live, whether that’s urban, suburban or rural.  And actually, metro Chicago is still one of the most affordable big-city markets in the U.S. At the upper extreme, the average home price is more than 12 times the average household income in Los Angeles; it’s eight times or higher in New York, Miami, San Francisco and Boston. That ratio in Chicago is four, ranking it the 16th-lowest-cost big city in the nation. Demand — or lack of it — is why. Cook County and Chicago have been losing population for years, which reduces the competition among renters and buyers and, by extension, the leverage of landlords and sellers to raise prices. That’s little solace, however, to local residents with lower-wage jobs, especially in gentrified neighborhoods. Affordable housing is generally defined as costing less than 30% of one’s income. In Chicago, where the average rent is $2,331 a month by one estimate, that puts the required minimum salary at $69,900 a year. Of those in our survey saying that they’re paying more than that share, 85% are concerned about their personal financial situation. Given the city’s own financial situation, Johnson can’t afford to do much, if anything, to directly help these tenants and mortgagees. But that doesn’t mean he’s helpless. The mayor could encourage developers to build more affordable housing, as he’s doing with the Loop office conversions to apartments.  As the Tribune Editorial Board recently advised, the city could also take a page from California and permit more residential housing in commercial areas. In Los Angeles, that zoning change has enabled a private developer to begin work on an 800-unit apartment complex, including 184 affordable rentals, atop a neighborhood Costco store. Odds are good that builders would build as they can make money. It’d be in their interest. It’d be in Johnson’s interest, too. Will Johnson is the Chicago-based CEO of The Harris Poll, one of the world’s leading public-opinion research firms. Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email [email protected].
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