Jan 16, 2025
A little over 100 days before the Kentucky Derby, buildup to the May 3 classic intensifies this week for horses and horseplayers. The Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds racetrack in New Orleans on Saturday begins a round of Derby steppingstones with stepped-up importance, presenting 1 1/16-mile tests and 42 qualifying points to top-five finishers. The first official Derby future wagering of the year, Friday through Sunday, allows bettors to lock in tantalizing odds on any of 39 individual 3-year-olds. There’s also an “all others” option that’s listed at 5-2 on the morning line. It’s a good time to debut this column’s ranking of 20 horses who, at a very early stage, look like Derby contenders worth following. 1. East Avenue (15-1 on the future-wager morning line): The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite was eliminated at the break at Del Mar but is training for a restart in Louisiana. 2. Barnes (10-1): Bob Baffert’s brilliant San Vicente Stakes winner, a $3.2 million auction buy, is the new leader of the California class. 3. Citizen Bull (20-1): This Baffert trainee won the Juvenile and is all but sure to be named 2-year-old champion for 2024 later this month. 4. Rodriguez (20-1): Another Baffert colt. His maiden romp at Santa Anita earned the highest Beyer speed figure (101) by a 3-year-old in 2025. 5. Gaming (30-1): Baffert’s Del Mar Futurity winner. The six-time Derby-winning trainer is loaded in his return from a three-year ban from Churchill Downs. 6. Journalism (20-1): Michael McCarthy’s Los Alamitos Futurity winner has been getting better as the races get longer. 7. Bullard (20-1): McCarthy again. Third to Barnes and Romanesque when the San Vicente pace didn’t suit his closing style. 8. Jonathan’s Way (40-1): He ran well at Churchill Downs before and after a disappointing try at the Breeders’ Cup. 9. Built (30-1): Must start from post 13 but is a 3-1 morning-line favorite to win his second stakes in the Grade III Lecomte. 10. Ferocious (30-1): A $1.3 million auction purchase, he has had more excuses than wins against division leaders. 11. Chancer McPatrick (20-1): Trainer Chad Brown’s double Grade I winner would rank higher if his 3-year-old debut weren’t delayed by ankle surgery. 12. Magnitude (80-1): Running in the Lecomte. Trainer Steve Asmussen likes his workouts better than his races so far. 13. First Resort (30-1): Well-traveled colt upset Jonathan’s Way at Churchill. Trained by Eoin Harty, who also has Remsen Stakes winner Poster. 14. Keep It Easy (40-1): All sprints so far, but he showed trainer Dale Romans something with a bounce-back stakes victory at Churchill. 15. Patch Adams (20-1): First of three Brad Cox-trained horses on this list. Exploded for a 10-length maiden win at Churchill. 16. Sovereignty (25-1): Was the 19-1 third choice in the previous round of future betting – behind 13-1 Barnes and 15-1 East Avenue – after a strong win at Churchill. 17. Getaway Car (50-1): Baffert. Seconds to Citizen Bull and Journalism keep this Del Mar stakes winner in the hunt. 18. Disco Time (50-1): Two for two for Cox. The Lecomte will be his first stakes-level challenge. 19. Admiral Dennis (NA): Cox. Not offered in this week’s future betting. Was favored over Built and Magnitude in the Gun Runner and needs a cleaner trip in the Lecomte. 20. Poster (40-1): A winner of the 1⅛-mile Remsen always merits a second glance. Related Articles Sports | Horse racing notes: Santa Anita resumes racing; Cal Cup is Saturday Sports | Santa Anita horse racing consensus picks for Thursday, January 16, 2025 Sports | Santa Anita, amid new fire concerns, calls off weekend racing Sports | Santa Anita plans to run races Saturday as Eaton fire smoke clears Sports | Displaced Golden Gate jockey seeks ‘showcase’ in Cal Cup at Santa Anita Those rankings will change in the next 100 days and new contenders will emerge. Major prep races will include the April 5 Santa Anita Derby. A prospect or two might come from Japan and Dubai. We’ll see how many of these 20 make it into the Kentucky Derby’s 20-horse field, and if the winner is on the list. Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.
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