Temperatures are on the rise in the Salem area, with summer heat waves growing more frequent, prolonged and intense in recent years. Data from the National Weather Service shows Salem had a record seven days above 100 degrees last year. Since 2021, Salem has also averaged 34 days at or above 90 degrees per year, more than ever before. Salem also broke 11 daily heat records last year, four of which were in July, according to Larry O’Neill, Oregon’s state climatologist. One local impact of climate change is more severe drought which climate researchers believe will continue to increase, heightening the risk of wildfire in the mid-Willamette Valley. O’Neill is one of 65 experts who recently authored the 314-page Seventh Oregon Climate Assessment, released Jan. 8. Among the report’s findings was that Oregonians will see much less snow in the coming decades as it’s replaced by more rainfall.  “By the end of the century, we’re expecting the snowpack will be about half of what it is now,” O’Neill told Salem Reporter. That would leave one of Oregon’s key natural reservoirs depleted and far less water available to use. Heat The report comes after Salem experienced a record-breaking stretch of 100-degree days last July – the city’s hottest on record – followed by unseasonably warm weather.  Historically, Salem has averaged around 17 days per year with temperatures at or above 90 degrees. That number has since doubled to 34 days per year from 2021 through 2024, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Information. Over the last decade, heat waves in the Willamette Valley have started earlier and lasted longer than before, especially in the past three years, O’Neill said.  The summer 2021 heat dome was particularly deadly, resulting in 109 heat-related deaths. The high temperatures also triggered hospitalizations, some due to underlying health conditions brought on by the heat. Since the 2021 event, many more people have installed air conditioning in their homes and cooling centers have become more commonplace. “People are becoming more cognizant about checking in with neighbors who might be vulnerable, that might live alone or be elderly,” O’Neill said. “The heat waves we’ve had since then, they haven’t been quite as deadly, but there’s still a lot of more adverse impacts that we expect in the future.” Drought, rain and snow In the Salem area and throughout the Willamette Valley, droughts in 2020 and 2021 were among the worst in state history, according to O’Neill. That’s partly because they lasted multiple years as climate change led to higher temperatures and drier conditions, he said. Historically, most droughts in Oregon historically have lasted a single year. Salem saw largely normal rainfall during 2024 except in January, when there were about 4 more inches of rain than normal, according to the National Weather Service’s annual climate report for the area. During 18 of the years from 1999 to 2023, statewide precipitation was below average, according to the report. “The average temperature was warmer than normal in 21 of those years,” the report said. “Drought risk during summer is likely to increase statewide.” O’Neill said future droughts will likely be driven by excessive spring and summer temperatures, and the amount of annual rainfall is not expected to change much throughout the rest of the century.  The Salem area could see slightly more heavy rain during the winter, raising the risk of rivers flooding. It could also see slightly less rain during the summer, when a little goes a long way. “That’s not by itself very impactful,” O’Neill said, because Oregon gets little rain during the summer. But moisture in soil and trees will dry out much earlier in the year, making droughts more frequent and increasing the risk of wildfires. As rain replaces existing snowfall at high elevations, warmer temperatures will more quickly melt whatever snow does fall. “It sticks there until the spring and summer melt season, and then it kind of trickles off slowly when we need the water the most,” he said.  In the changing climate, more rain will also run off almost instantaneously and wash away in the winter instead of being stored in snow buildup, a natural reservoir of water. “This will have major implications for our water supply and for hydropower generation in the Northwest, and it will definitely influence summertime drought conditions,” according to O’Neill. That will mean less water available for domestic water use and irrigation.  Salem gets its water from the North Santiam River. It’s collected and filtered at the Geren Island Water Treatment Facility in Stayton. As the growing season begins earlier in the year, O’Neill said farmers may need to change what crops they grow and how much water they use. The report said drought conditions also increase mental health issues such as anxiety, depression and suicide.  When farmers and ranchers are forced to leave their fields unsown or their crops die, “it takes away a source of pride and your livelihood away from people,” O’Neill said. “A lot of people, that’s a very strong part of their identity.” “Promotion of accessible mental health care and support services for impacted populations, particularly in rural and agricultural communities, contributes to effective drought preparedness and mitigation,” the report said. Heat waves and smoke exposure are also impacting vineyards in Oregon, especially early in the growing season. “Nevertheless, the increase in temperatures in Oregon over the past 125 years benefited wine grape production,” the report said. “There may be a threshold of climate change beyond which growers are unable to adapt, but so far research is keeping pace with the effects of climate change on vineyards in Oregon.” The loss of snowpack will also be a challenge for fish and other species which rely on it for cold running water during summers and for diluting toxins that end up in rivers. Wildfire risk Researchers expect wildfires to occur more frequently in Oregon and “burn hotter,” O’Neill said. Wildfire smoke in recent years has resulted in more days with poor air quality for Oregonians. “Salem hasn’t been hit quite as bad,” he said. “The Labor Day 2020 fires were a little bit of an anomaly, but we do expect that those sort of conditions will occur more often as wildfires become more frequent and more intense.” He said recent studies have shown that wildfires in Oregon are growing and spreading faster than they once did as landscapes have become drier.  Fires last year on the eastern side of the state killed a large number of farm animals because people couldn’t remove them from fields quickly enough. The Santiam Canyon fires are another example of flames spreading rapidly, overwhelming the surrounding community and firefighters. “It’s really hard to fight that, and so you just end up doing nothing but evacuation and getting people out of the way,” O’Neill said.  He said that’s led to increased spending of state and federal money on equipment such as large air tankers and a lot more helicopter water buckets than were needed before in Oregon, he said. “Fire departments all across the state have had to learn how to fight these fires that are moving faster, they’re more intense and hotter.” Contact reporter Ardeshir Tabrizian: [email protected] or 503-929-3053. A MOMENT MORE, PLEASE– If you found this story useful, consider subscribing to Salem Reporter if you don’t already. Work such as this, done by local professionals, depends on community support from subscribers. Please take a moment and sign up now – easy and secure: SUBSCRIBE. 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