Three things on the tip of my tongue as the playoffs return to Orchard Park... Bronco Kryptonite Denver hasn't beaten a ton of great teams, but this is a squad with some legitimately dangerous traits. Funny thing is, Buffalo seems to have an answer for many of them. The Broncos lead the NFL with 63 sacks. The Bills offensive line has allowed only 14, the least in the league. Denver might have the number one lockdown corner in Pat Surtain II. The Bills don't rely on a number one receiver because, as I'm guessing you've heard by now, this is an offense where Everybody Eats. Surtain's impact will be mitigated because Josh Allen is plenty fine just throwing away from him all afternoon. Denver's best offensive weapon is wideout Courtland Sutton. The Bills have a borderline All-Pro at one corner in Christian Benford on one side and Rasul Douglas won't be bothered by any challenge on the other side. As talented as Sutton is, the Bills should have the personnel to handle him. Styles make fights and this one might simply be a nightmare for the way the Broncos want to operate. Attack With Backs While we're on the subject of Denver matchup issues, the Broncos rank in the bottom quarter of the NFL in receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. The Bills proved against the Lions they can happily throw up 40 points with a passing game centered around James Cook, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. Denver's defense is just as tough stopping the run as they are getting after the quarterback. Their defensive line is ridiculous and comes at offenses in waves. Four different players have at least seven sacks. Combine that with the secondary anchored by Surtain and there aren't many options for offenses. Linebacker becomes the only reasonable target remaining and it's apparently worked fine for everyone else. Denver starters Justin Strnad and Cody Barton are ranked 42nd and 37th among LBs in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. The Bills don't have an elite pass catching back, but they have three that have all proven plenty explosive. Johnson even leads the Bills with his 15.8 yards per catch average (if you don't count Tyrell Shavers 69 yards per catch via his one catch). Expect Joe Brady to spend a lot of time drinking out of this well on Sunday. Third And Trouble The Bills enter the postseason allowing third down conversions on nearly 44% of opponent attempts. That's the fourth worst rate in the league. Buffalo has been surprisingly reliant on QB pressure to succeed against the pass. The Bills are fourth in the league in Expected Points Added when they get pressure. When they don't, that number plummets to 30th. The Broncos offensive line has the NFL's best pass block win rate. Teams only get pressure on QB Bo Nix one out of every four throws. That's a lot of potential pass attempts to leave Buffalo's third worst secondary without QB pressure hanging, even facing a rookie QB and not much at receiver. It doesn't help that Nix is plenty willing and effective using his legs. Only Jayden Daniels topped Nix's 50 scrambles this year (and the Daniels number of 75 was the most in two decades). Third down pass situations might be the Bills trying to get around the NFL's strongest brick wall to try and hit one of the league's most movable targets. McDermott said this week one of the keys to helping the third down defense is to force more third and long's. Actually, third and short might be preferable. Buffalo is second best in the percentage of third and short runs stopped for no gain or less. The numbers say Buffalo might actually stand a better chance against third and two than third and eight. Betting Things I did end up taking a swing on the Reggie Gilliam anytime touchdown bet last week. It was too fun to pass up. Alas, no dice. My record drops to 8-9 for the season and I'm back in the red by 0.5 units. This week's wager feels very logical. The Broncos play the fourth most man coverage in the NFL and the general inability of Bills receivers to get separation is only going to push that rate higher. Denver also has the fourth highest blitz rate in the league. If Denver is going to play DBs focused on their receiver instead of the quarterback and five (or more) rushers going all out after Allen, who is left for his inevitable scrambles? The answer is nobody! Remember, this is a QB that has rushed for at least 50 yards in seven of his ten playoff starts. Allen has also rushed for 50 yards in four of his last six games this year and in four of the Bills five games this season against playoff teams. Denver's hulked up D seems like a perfect assignment for the Bills hulked up QB. FanDuel has the best line on Allen to rush for 50 yards at +126 and that's going to be the play. The Pick Denver has already made their season a winner. Their Super Bowl was last week qualifying for the playoffs. Even if they get trucked by 50 Sunday, Sean Payton's rebuild is ahead of schedule with an answer at quarterback and a defense that will cost AFC West offensive coordinators some off days this summer. The Broncos will come to Orchard Park with nothing to lose. That can make them dangerous if the Bills allow the game to remain competitive into the second half. On the other hand, I think the Broncos might be willing to push back from the table if Buffalo proves who is boss quickly. Denver might be satisfied enough with ten wins and the playoff experience to skip fighting uphill against an AFC top dog in the snow and cold of mid-January in Western New York. If the Bills can't get pressure on Nix, there's a good chance they can confuse him. For the third time in four weeks, we can trot out the McDermott vs. rookie QB stat. It currently stands at 11-4 overall, including playoffs. The four losses might be more telling than the 11 wins: The first game against a rookie QB in Allen's rookie season (Sam Darnold) The Monday night wind game against Mac Jones The 9-6 loss to Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville Last week Since that first contest with a rookie QB in 2018, the Bills only lose if there's a catastrophe of weather or offense or if they don't try. Assuming none of those happen Sunday feels pretty safe (but check the forecast because... you know... Buffalo). Home field and experience mean more in the playoffs. There are seven Bills who have been a part of the team for all ten playoff games since Allen was drafted. This is the first playoff game for Denver in nine years. Allen has done quite well in these first round home games against overmatched or inexperienced QBs. He's averaging 350 combined yards and 3.75 total touchdowns over the four games. Three of those games were turnover free. Denver is going to be, maybe by far, the toughest defense Allen will face in the wild card round, but I expect he finds a way to get this done. Denver could easily be a headache, but the Bills are eons better at quarterback. And that's no offense to Nix. As long as Allen plays at the MVP level he's been locked into all season, Buffalo's season won't end here. Give me the Bills 26-17.