Jan 10, 2025
Illinois’ and Chicago’s sanctuary status, which protects immigrants who lack documentation, is the primary reason the state’s population increased by nearly 68,000 this year. The exodus of residents from the state and city is a result of policies that have yielded a toxic combination of high crime, the absence of quality school choices, and nation-leading taxes and wasteful spending. Outmigration is one of the best ways to measure the effectiveness of state and local government programs, and by that measure, Illinois resoundingly has received a failing grade. Illinois is one of only three states to see its population shrink from 2010 to 2020, and our state’s population losses accelerated between 2022 and 2023. Wirepoints reported that since 2000, Illinois has seen 1.6 million people migrate out of the state, according to Internal Revenue Service data. While Illinois has driven out residents from every age and income group, the most damaging exodus has been among larger money earners. Illinois consistently ranks near the top in the loss of households earning $200,000 or more. Illinois has also ranked among top states in the loss of businesses, following only New York and California. The state’s outmigration crisis is predictable, given state and local policies that undermine the most important elements of improving outcomes for Black residents: public safety and quality education. While U.S. News & World Report ranks Illinois 15th among the states for crime and correction, we have the some of the highest rates of robbery among all states, and we are second in the Midwest for homicide rate. Meanwhile Chicago has seen an increase in violent crime since the pandemic, and the city consistently leads the nation’s cities in total number of homicides.  On schools, Illinois spends more per pupil than surrounding states. Yet test scores are abysmal as teacher unions block changes needed to improve schools that affect their members. Illinois killed a tax credit program that supported school choice, and the state legislature and governor have supported teacher union efforts to deny families even public charter school alternatives to failing neighborhood schools. Little wonder that Illinois lost 225,000 students between 2010 and 2021. Meanwhile, government expenditures in Illinois fail to deliver effective public services proportionate to the tax burden they impose, leaving communities that depend on those services ever further behind. This toxic combination harms families and businesses alike, fueling the exodus of those who have the means. That Indiana and Wisconsin rank behind Florida as the states Illinois residents migrate to is telling. Unfortunately, the primary goal of state and city public spending appears to be to expand government. Illinois has the highest number of governmental units in the nation. Illinois over the last decade has been near the bottom in state job growth; what job growth there has been is largely in government employment. Wirepoints found that from February 2023 to February 2024, Illinois’ state and local governments added 28,000 new jobs while the private sector lost 11,700 jobs. Kiplinger’s most recent financial report ranks Illinois one of the least tax-friendly state for middle-class families. State leaders’ preoccupation with investing in bigger government and not people is reflected in Illinois ranking first in combined state and local taxes, fines and fees but dead last in equity. A 2024 study of racial inequality by WalletHub ranked Illinois last in equity using eight basic economic measures of prosperity, including poverty rate, homelessness, labor force participation, homeownership, median annual household income and unemployment rate. Related Articles Commentary | Paul Vallas: Chicago’s City Council can address the financial crisis to come if it begins now Commentary | Forrest Claypool: Six-figure pensions are throttling Chicago’s ability to provide critical services Commentary | George Cardenas: Chicago must create a relief mechanism for property taxpayers It’s no surprise that Black residents, particularly in Chicago, are voting with their feet. From 2000 to 2020, more than 200,000 Black people have left Chicago. This has devastated predominantly Black communities, stripping them of their middle class. The Sun-Times reported in 2023 that the number of Black children age 17 and younger has fallen 49% compared with 14% for adults. Gov. JB Pritzker can thank President Joe Biden and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for Illinois’ population gain last year. The state’s sanctuary status will require more resource-sharing with current residents. In the meantime, there seems to be little effort to address the underlying causes of Illinois’ outmigration — crime, poor schools and the ever-increasing cost of working and operating a business or simply living in Illinois, especially in its largest city. Paul Vallas is an adviser for the Illinois Policy Institute. He ran for Chicago mayor in 2023 and 2019 and was previously budget director for the city and CEO of Chicago Public Schools. Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email [email protected].
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