Jan 09, 2025
Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images Time is on the Spurs’ side Preseason expectations (ESPN, FanDuel Sportsbook) had the San Antonio Spurs winning between 31 and 35 games, but they are on pace for 40. The jump stems from the addition of key veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes, plus the massive improvement of Victor Wembanyama. It’s not outside of the realm of possibility that the Spurs could get a playoff berth, which would be their first since 2019. Even if the Spurs get there or fall short, it may be unwise to speed up the team’s timeline for a championship. They are already improving drastically as they hold an 18-19 record through 45 percent of the season. On Jan. 9, 2024, the Spurs’ record was 5-30. Don’t forget that the average age of the team is 24.7 years old. It would be unrealistic for anybody to expect them shortly to win a title like the young 1977 Portland Trail Blazers did. Or, it would be just as unreasonable to expect them to do what the young Thunder did in 2012, getting to the Finals with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden when they were between 22 and 23 years old. No matter how nice comments from Paul and Wembanyama are about the Spurs wanting to shed the “young guys” label, it doesn’t change reality. They are still in the early stages of building Rome. Trading for a star like De’Aaron Fox could be tempting when observing how well the Donovan Mitchell trade has gone for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They parted with a lot for him, but it worked out because they had two All-star caliber players (Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland) and another on the verge of stardom (Evan Mobley). Still, Cleveland didn’t become a powerhouse until year three of the experiment. If the Spurs make a huge trade now, they would still be exciting, but they are far away from a championship because it would likely be Wemby and the co-star with background players who aren’t ready. Keep in mind, getting a big fish on Fox’s level requires giving up some premium chips, like Stephon Castle, Jeremy Sochan and unprotected first-rounders to start. And if you are trading multiple FRPs in a deal, you should be in contention soon because windows are not that long for most. Asset management is critical. If a team wastes first-round picks and good players on a bad fit, they could end up like the Los Angeles Lakers, reaching for scraps to put around LeBron James plus Anthony Davis and with a continuous rotation of coaches. Aiming for the Western Conference Finals in two years is something nice for the Spurs to reach for, but it won’t make this build a failure if they don’t get there or mean they are behind schedule. They need a few things to start challenging for the conference: Stephon Castle needs to climb a few levels as a player; the team needs another quality big man who can switch onto smaller players; Jeremy Sochan needs to become a 3-point threat; and they need a real sidekick next to Wembanyama. Perhaps Castle turns into the second option one day, but he has a long way to go because he is not yet a good finisher in the paint or an adequate shooter. Even if it’s not him, there is time to identify and develop that player or trade for him as a last resort. It’s important to remember that development isn’t always linear. Players, even coaches, can have down seasons and sometimes those end up becoming just as critical for the lessons learned. It will take a while, but patience is essential. Remember these cautionary tales: If only the Phoenix Suns had some instead of wasting the infrastructure built over years of pain for an older Durant and Bradley Beal, who did nothing for their contending chances. If only Mikhail Prokhorov didn’t waste the Nets’ draft pick that turned into Damian Lillard for past-his-prime Gerald Wallace, or who knows how different Brooklyn would be if he showed restraint instead of taking the corpses of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry from Boston. That’s how teams without a winning history or barely any act. The West has a juggernaut in the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their collection of draft picks will rearm the top three for a long time. Even after they broke through with a playoff appearance in the 2020 bubble, with Paul on the team, don’t forget, they still followed up with years of 22, 24 and 40 wins before being the first seed last season with 57. Then, Dallas exposed them, but signing Isaiah Hartenstein and later trading for Alex Caruso gave the team the edge it needed. Those were big moves, but they weren’t the home runs the headlines fiend for. If the Spurs play their hand correctly, the future could be just as bright for them by always having ammo around Wembanyama. Borrowing a term from Pat Riley, they are on the “innocent climb”, which is a team many don’t expect much from but at the same time is very dangerous. Winning in the NBA is hard because it’s a grown-ups’ league. The best teams got to where they are after continuous efforts that ended in disappointment. That ride is still pivotal for the Spurs’ development. It will be hardest for the fans who spend their time watching and money on merchandise because, as Smokey Robinson sang, “a taste of honey is worse than none at all.”
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