Jan 09, 2025
There's a lot to talk about concerning the cold, the wind, and the snow chances over the next 3 days. I'll start off with today's cold and wind. Then I'll talk in-depth about the potential for snow. Last night a wind shift dropped south through the region. Now this feature is to our south. There is a strong area of high pressure just to our west. There is an area of low pressure, that just formed, near Texas. Regional Weather Map We'll have lots of sunshine today. However, the wind will be gusting up to 30mph at times. Wind Gusts Forecast It will gust even higher between Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore at times. High temps will only be in the mid 30s. Wind chills will be in the teens this morning and 20s in the afternoon. Temps VS Wind Chill So bundle up big-time as you head out today. Tomorrow is pretty simple during the daytime. We'll have increasing clouds. High temps will be in the mid-upper 30s. Forecast Temps Tomorrow Winds will be less. So that will help a bit in how it feels. Here's the thing about tomorrow... If the clouds are thicker in the afternoon, then that will keep the temps down closer to the mid 30s. Future Trak Friday Afternoon If the clouds are fairly thin, then temps may be able to get into the upper 30s. That will affect the evening temperatures when the precipitation arrives. As of this time I'm going with a high of 38, but that could change. Regardless, the fast-moving area of low pressure will be getting closer to the area Friday evening. There will be a lot of moisture moving in ahead of it. There may be a very small window of a wintry mix before the precip turns into all snow showers. Future Trak Friday Evening The exception will be over the Outer Banks where it will probably start off as a wintry mix, and then it will change over to a rain/mix. Elsewhere through the night scattered snow showers will continue as the low slides east through the region. Future Trak Saturday Before Dawn Our Future Trak model even shows some briefly heavy snow showers for a bit. The rain/snow line will probably move up to the Albemarle Sound, but it could move as far north as the state line (according to Future Trak). Then Future Trak has a few snow showers ending by about 7am. Future Trak Saturday Morning 7AM After that point we should have gradual clearing. Now not every model agrees on this exact scenario. The GFS model does have the scattered snow showers Friday evening into Saturday morning. GFS Early Saturday morning However, it does have the rain/snow line getting a little farther north into southeast Virginia. GFS Late Saturday Morning Then it even has a little rain (briefly) in the afternoon. GFS Saturday Afternoon If that were to happen, then there would be some melting from the rain and the rising temps. Course that wouldn't happen until later in the day. The European model is in-between Future Trak and the GFS in regards to the rain/snow line, but it does keep the precip going longer. European Model Saturday Morning However, the NAM model this morning has come in with a big area and a long stretch of a wintry mix. It has some snow showers, but it has most of the accumulating snow north of Hampton Roads. This model has become the outlier as the Euro has shifted to colder again. Here are the latest snowfall forecasts. Snow Forecast 4 Models Here is the latest National Weather Service forecast: NWS Snow Forecast Putting all of this together I am going with the higher snow totals for now. I'm calling for a decent swath of 2-3 inches with 4 inches possible. Snow Forecast Map Unfortunately, there may also be a little ice mixing-in over parts of the region. Even Future Trak has a small region of ice pellets or brief freezing rain. Ice Forecast There may be some pretty dry air at the surface. So it's possible the initial snow falls as virga. I don't see that lasting very long though. The bottom line is that I think we have a decent shot at some accumulating snow over the Hampton Roads metro. It would be nice to have it on a weekend morning as well. Keep in mind that this is a very fast moving system. It's possible that it will move even faster, and then it may not be able to acquire as much moisture. Even then I think we would still have some lighter snow amounts. There's also a chance that it slows down a little. Then the totals could rise to about 4-5 inches. We'll see. Check back for updates. While things seem like they are coming together, we can't rule out a curve ball forecast coming in. We'll have updates throughout the day. Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
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