Gonzales Poll: Moore holds solid approval rating, faces opposition to potential tax hikes to deal with state budget deficit
Jan 07, 2025
About three-fifths of Maryland voters approve of Gov. Wes Moore, though his support narrows in a potential 2026 matchup against former Gov. Larry Hogan, according to a new poll by Gonzales Research & Media Services.Statewide, 61% of voters approve of Moore’s job as governor, while 28% disapprove and 11% offered no opinion. Those figures shift based on party affiliation, with an approval rating of 79% among Democrats (12% disapprove), 33% among Republicans (52% disapprove), and 53% among Independents (38% disapprove).Despite Moore’s majority approval, only 29% said they strongly approve of his governorship while 32% somewhat approve.“Sixty-one percent approval is a job rating any governor would accept, but a 1.1-to-1 softratio (32% “somewhat” approve/29% “strongly” approve) is not a desirable split,” the poll says.That approval rating could be thrown off kilter as the Moore administration is likely to have to make unpopular decisions to address the state’s budget deficit.Maryland faces nearly a $3 billion deficit in the coming year, with the potential for that deficit to rise to nearly $6 billion over the next five years, according to state budget analysts.Voters were asked about the possibility of increases to property tax, sales tax, and income tax to deal with the deficit – all of which were widely opposed.On the possibility of increasing the state property tax, 77% of voters statewide oppose such an idea while only 18% support it.Opposition was strongest among Republicans (90% oppose), but a majority of Democrats (70%) and Independents (79%) also do not support a property tax hike.Voters were also opposed to a sales tax increase, with 73% opposition and 23% support statewide. Republicans, again, were the most opposed to this idea (86%), followed by Independents (81%) and Democrats (62%).An increase on income taxes garnered 76% opposition and 17% support. Among Democrats, 66% oppose an income tax hike. Meanwhile, 83% of Independents and 92% of Republicans oppose it.The poll also asked respondents about whom they would back in a potential matchup between Moore and Hogan. Although Hogan has already served two terms as governor, Maryland’s constitution only puts a limit on consecutive terms, meaning Hogan could theoretically run again.“[A] person who has served two consecutive popular elective terms of office as Governor shall be ineligible to succeed himself as Governor for the term immediately following the second of said two consecutive popular elective terms,” the state constitution reads.If Moore and Hogan were the Democrat and Republican parties’ nominees for governor in 2026, 52% of voters said they would support Moore, 38% said they would vote for Hogan, and 10% were undecided.Hogan last ran for U.S. Senate in 2024 against then-Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. The former governor ultimately lost – earning 42.84% of the vote to Alsobrooks’ 54.64% – but the race was closer than many expected in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans about 2-to-1.The Gonzales poll surveyed 811 registered Maryland voters likely to vote in the next election. Respondents were reached by phone from Dec. 27 to Jan. 4. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.