HONOLULU (KHON2) - Latest model guidance continues to show an upper level trough deepening west of the state through tonight that will help push a frontal boundary northwest of Kauai. Expect southwest winds over the western half of the state to gradually strengthen becoming breezy late tonight into Tuesday as the front moves south. High resolution model guidance keeps light to moderate showers focused along southerly exposed coasts and slopes through Tuesday. The front is expected to move over Kauai Tuesday night before weakening an shifting over Oahu Wednesday. Increased upper level instability from the deepening trough and low level moisture riding in ahead of the front will increase chances of precipitation first over Kauai then move over Oahu. Wednesday night into the weekend, amplified jet dynamics could further deepen the upper level trough over the state and pinch off on upper level low by the weekend, increasing instability over the state. Lingering low- level moisture from the dissipating front will be replenished as another area of enhanced moisture is advected in from the southeast. This along with the returning trades as a surface high builds north of the state behind the front and tracks northeast will keep enhanced precipitation in the forecast but shift the focus along windward and mauka areas. The anomalous cold upper level temperatures could also increase chances for thunderstorms and possibly ice over the summits of the Big Island Friday and Saturday but have left them out of the forecast at this time. However, model guidance is trending up with each model run so is worth watching. High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for north and west facing shores Niihau Kauai Oahu Molokai north facing shores of Maui and west facing shores of the Big Island. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.