San Diego County supervisors will meet Jan. 14 to decide how to fill the seat Nora Vargas is unexpectedly vacating this week — but in the meantime, several South County elected officials have already declared their candidacy, should a special election be called. Chula Vista Councilmember Carolina Chavez this past week became the third local Democratic elected official to throw her hat in the ring, following San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno and Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre. Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, a Republican, has also confirmed he is running. Before Vargas abruptly announced late last month that she would resign rather than serve her second term, she and her two newly re-elected colleagues were set to be sworn in Monday. Instead, it will be her last day in office. The following morning, the diminished board will elect new officers, including a chair, vice-chair and chair pro tem. But they won’t decide next steps to fill the District 1 vacancy until the following Tuesday, Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer’s office confirmed. The remaining four supervisors can appoint a replacement, call a special election or both to serve out the four-year term that begins next week and runs until January 2029. Supervisors aren’t unfamiliar with the process. They had to make a similar decision when Nathan Fletcher resigned from the board less than two years ago, after he was accused of sexual misconduct. If they opt for a special election, UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser doesn’t expect a huge partisan impact on the board; the district has more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans. But until a new supervisor is chosen, the board will once again be composed of two Democrats and two Republicans, an even partisan split — and the more than 600,000 residents of District 1 will be left without a voice on key issues as Donald Trump again takes office as president. “As we’ve seen over and over again in San Diego, having a vacancy and the game of political dominoes that this often creates can unsettle the county,” Kousser said. “That can really mean that decisive votes are missing at a time when they’re needed most.” While that could give Republicans Joel Anderson and Jim Desmond more leverage with Democrats Lawson-Remer and Monica Montgomery Steppe to reach policy compromises, it could also lead to gridlock. In the months the District Four seat was vacant in 2023, supervisors deadlocked on issues including gun regulations and abortion protections. This time around, the vacancy will also come as the county faces a $138.5 million budget deficit for the next fiscal year, according to county budget officials, who reported a slowdown in sales tax revenue at the board’s meeting last month. That deficit is expected to grow to $321.8 million by fiscal year 2029-30. Although the county’s $8.53 billion budget adopted last year avoided some of the cuts that both the county’s biggest city and biggest school district had recently faced, supervisors will likely have to make tough financial decisions during budget season beginning in May. The lack of a fifth vote could have an impact. “In some ways, this could create pressure to have bipartisan deals,” Kousser said. Just last month, Vargas proposed a resolution that was narrowly passed 3-1 by the board to bar county agencies from cooperating with federal authorities on immigration enforcement. The controversial policy, which has gotten national attention just weeks before President-elect Trump — who has promised an immigration crackdown and threatened to cut funding to cities with such “sanctuary” policies — is set to start a second term, is indicative of the kinds of decisions that could stall with an even partisan split. Vargas’ departure is an even greater concern as her district — which spans most of South County to include the cities of Chula Vista, Imperial Beach and National City, several south San Diego neighborhoods and five unincorporated communities — is likely to face the largest immigration challenges under Trump, Kousser explained. “Not having that personal link to your local government at a time when many people in this community may feel out of step with the national government could be a real representational loss,” he said. Vargas has not explained why she is stepping down, citing only “personal safety and security reasons” in announcing the decision. She has previously been vocal about public disruption and harassment supervisors have faced during board meetings, where she has been subject to racist slurs from public commenters. A 2023 survey by the University of San Diego found that two-thirds of local elected officials said they had been harassed or threatened, and that among women, nearly half had considered leaving public service as a direct result. Although men and women are equally likely to report having been threatened or harassed, women were more frequently targeted, with three times as many women saying they were threatened or harassed at least weekly, said Rachel Locke, a co-author of the study. Women of color are generally at greater risk, she added. “A big risk of this kind of behavior becoming normalized is we start to accept it,” Locke said. “And then we risk really flipping into a place of fear-based governance.” The elected officials who have expressed interest in Vargas’ seat acknowledged that such threats have become common but that too much was at stake for them not to pursue the office. Moreno was first elected in 2018 to the San Diego City Council representing San Diego’s District 8, which spans the South Bay communities of Nestor, Otay Mesa West and San Ysidro. She also serves on the board of the San Diego Metropolitan Transit System. The Democrat and District 1 native says she knows the tremendous needs of the communities. “Residents need a fresh new leader to take on the many challenges facing the region,” she said. At the city, Moreno says she has fought for southern communities to be afforded the services and infrastructure, like parks and libraries, that more affluent communities have enjoyed for generations. She says that at the county, she would prioritize affordable housing, homelessness, public transportation and environmental issues. For Aguirre, who was elected Imperial Beach mayor in 2022 after one term on the City Council and who serves on the state Coastal Commission, those issues are also top of mind — as is public safety. But the one issue directly tormenting South County, she added, is the decadeslong Tijuana River sewage crisis. She has repeatedly criticized Vargas for what she considers an insufficient response to that crisis. Aguirre said she would take what has been her top priority issue to higher office, where she believes she could help restructure the county’s approach to addressing public health, environmental and economic impacts. “We’ve been punching above our level for quite some time — the city tackling this state and federal issue,” said Aguirre of her work in Imperial Beach. “But we could have seen that same energy of leadership and advocacy from our supervisor. And that’s what I intend to bring on this particular issue.” Chula Vista, whose population makes up nearly half of District 1, will have two sitting city officials campaigning for the supervisorial post — both McCann and Chavez have said they, too, are running. McCann had served on the council for more than a decade before voters elected him mayor in 2022, following a contentious race against Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar. Chavez began her first term in office in 2022. She serves on the SANDAG board; McCann is on the board of MTS and the League of California Cities. McCann said he’s worked to make Chula Vista safer with opportunities for growth by hiring more police, banning homeless encampments and approving projects like the Gaylord Pacific Resort hotel and a new library complex. He wants to replicate that for District 1, adding that he would push for a countywide encampment ban and for reversing the sanctuary policy approved last month. Chavez said running for supervisor would allow her to address economic security, public safety, housing and health care “on a broader scale” and that she would prioritize making District 1 more economically prosperous. “I will champion job creation, support small businesses and expand workforce development programs to foster innovation and build career pathways,” she said.