Jan 05, 2025
Donald Trump didn’t win Perris. It’s the way he lost it that helped him win the Inland Empire in 2024. By winning more votes in blue cities like Perris than he did in 2020 and flipping 13 cities won by Joe Biden, Trump became the first Republican in 20 years to win Riverside and San Bernardino counties, a Southern California News Group analysis of election results shows. Certified election results from both counties show Trump won 13 Inland cities he lost four years ago — Banning, Chino, Chino Hills, Corona, Eastvale, Grand Terrace, Hemet, Highland, Jurupa Valley, La Verne, Lake Elsinore, Rancho Cucamonga and San Jacinto. Trump repeated his 2020 wins in Beaumont, Big Bear Lake, Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Menifee, Norco, Temecula and Wildomar. He also won the unincorporated parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Vice President Kamala Harris won Claremont, Colton, Fontana, Loma Linda, Montclair, Moreno Valley, Ontario, Perris, Pomona, Redlands, Rialto, Riverside, San Bernardino and Upland. Jurupa Valley saw the biggest shift to Trump among the cities that flipped to him. Biden won it 58% to 40% in 2020, but Trump beat Harris in Jurupa Valley 49% to 47% four years later. It wasn’t a case of Trump winning back red cities. With the exception of La Verne, the Inland cities that flipped to Trump have pluralities of registered Democratic voters. The tightest Inland contest unfolded in Upland, where Harris beat Trump by just 187 votes — 47.93% to 47.41%. Trump crushed it in Canyon Lake, winning the southwest Riverside County gated community by 55 percentage points, while Harris’ best Inland performance came in Claremont, where she beat Trump 65% to 29%. Even where Trump lost, he did better in 2024. Take Perris, where he got 39% of the vote, an 11-point improvement from four years ago. Trump also did better in Colton, Fontana, Ontario and San Bernardino. After holding an October rally just outside Coachella in the eastern Riverside County desert, Trump won 35% of that city’s vote after getting just 20% in 2020. Nationally, Trump improved his standing with Latino voters, a trend that could explain his Inland success. Latinos account for at least 65% of the population in the Inland cities where Trump improved by at least 8% on his 2020 margin. Mike Madrid, a GOP political consultant and expert on Latino voting trends, has said that Republican messaging on the cost of living and affordability struck a chord with working-class Latinos motivated by pocketbook issues. Harris performed best among college-educated voters, but that trend didn’t help her locally. Trump won 10 of the 15 Inland cities with the highest percentage of residents with at least a bachelor’s degree. That said, “the cities that went more Democratic in 2024 seem to include more highly educated communities and those that are more touristy,” Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said via email. She also noted a rise in Trump support among “many of the relatively affluent suburbs in western Riverside and San Bernardino County.” “Several of these communities were more Republican before the Trump candidacies,” Godwin said. “Some of (the) 2024 voting behavior may be a matter of reverting back to voting Republican for president, but you will also see pockets where there are year-round Trump banners and bumper stickers.” The wealthier a city, the likelier it voted for Trump. He won 13 of the 17 Inland cities with an average median household income of at least $100,000. Related Articles Politics | Why are US flags being flown at half-staff on Inauguration Day? Politics | Judge sets Trump’s sentencing in hush money case for Jan. 10, but signals no jail time Politics | ‘At this point, I have no hope’: Injured officers, Democrats still waiting for Jan. 6 plaque Politics | Biden’s final actions as president leave some transgender people feeling unsupported Politics | Court throws out Biden FCC’s net neutrality rule Compared to other presidential elections, fewer Californians — 71% of all registered voters — voted in November. Voter turnout in Riverside and San Bernardino counties was 70% and 64%, respectively. The four Inland Empire cities that shifted the most to Trump — Fontana, Perris, Rialto and San Bernardino — saw at least a 38% drop in turnout compared to 2020. By contrast, in Temecula, where Trump did 2% worse in 2024 — he still won the city — turnout fell 19%. “The highest shifts to Trump appear to be correlated to the highest drop-off in turnout,” Godwin said. BIDEN TO TRUMP In the 2024 election, Donald Trump won 13 Inland Empire cities that he lost in 2020. They are: Banning Chino Chino Hills Corona Eastvale Grand Terrace Hemet Highland Jurupa Valley La Verne Lake Elsinore Rancho Cucamonga San Jacinto NARROWER LOSSES Donald Trump also improved on his 2020 margins in Inland Empire cities that he lost. These cities won by Vice President Kamala Harris swung at least 8% toward Trump in 2024. Perris (11.45% swing) Rialto (11.03% swing) Fontana (9.63% swing) San Bernardino (9.58% swing) Montclair (9.01% swing) Colton (8.79% swing) Ontario (8.79% swing) Pomona (8.56% swing) Moreno Valley (8.21% swing) Staff writer Beau Yarbrough contributed to this report.
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