HONOLULU (KHON2) - An upper-level trough will dive down and sweep across the central Pacific and help drive the stalled front through at least the western portion of the island chain by the middle of next week. Late this weekend into early next week, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the western half of the state ahead of the front. This may be enough to overcome the land and sea breeze pattern for Kauai and Oahu and focus clouds and showers over leeward areas, especially with any prefrontal convergence bands. The latest global model runs continue to bring the front to Kauai Tuesday evening, then slowly move it through the middle of the island chain by Wednesday evening before it stalls again and dissipates. This frontal passage looks to bring some beneficial rain to the islands, along with breezy north-northeasterly winds for the western half of the state. Convergence along the dissipating front, an abundance of upstream moisture, and a new plume of moisture associated with a low-level disturbance moving towards the eastern end of the state will keep rain chances in the picture through the latter part of the week. Rainfall will mainly be focused over windward and mauka areas for this period as high pressure builds behind the front and trades return. Long-term model guidance is hinting at the aforementioned upper trough becoming a closed low over the eastern end of the state next weekend, which could enhance the remaining shower activity and bring a slight chance of thunderstorms. Confidence is low regarding timing and location of any thunder, so have left it out of the forecast for now. Finally, a hot spot over Halemaumau Crater on the Big Island continues to be seen on infrared satellite imagery despite decreased eruption activity. As winds weaken and shift out of the southeast, then south and southwest this weekend through early next week, SO2 emissions and vog are expected to to increase across some of the smaller islands. High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala, Big Island South. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,