Three things on my mind as the Bills get ready for preseason week number four... To Play Or Not To Play The Bills want to rest starters this week, but they can't rest everyone. There are only 53 roster spots, plus two that can be called up from the practice squad. Sitting the 22 starters leaves 33 bodies leftover to man those same 22 starting positions. Plus all the special teams. Three of those 33 are the kicking specialists. Another is the extra quarterback. Options start to run low real quick. The biggest issues appear to be on the defensive line and among the pass catchers. If Von Miller and Greg Rousseau don't play, Buffalo only has A.J. Epenesa, Dawuane Smoot and rookie Javon Solomon left for a spot that regular rotates four players. That's likely why Casey Toohill was a practice squad callup for the Bills Saturday. I'd imagine the Bills would prefer to rest Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Cooper did not make the trip due to a family matter, so he is definitely not playing. That only leaves Quintin Morris at tight end with Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel at receiver. That's if Samuel is on the field after spending all week limited in practice. Reggie Gilliam can help out at tight end some, but that's still a thin group. Hollins is definitely not a player the Bills would want to overextend. McDermott might have a bit of an out at these two spots if he does something that usually runs against the culture he's built in Buffalo: make individual goals a priority. As with any NFL team this time of year, there are a number of players who may want to chase playing time and production bonuses in week 18. Hollins, for example, needs two more catches for 50-grand and 72 yards receiving for another 75 thousand dollars. Knox has a playing time incentive worth $250K that will require he play approximately 25 plays on Sunday. Miller can cash another $1.5 million if he records one more sack. Epenesa can add a million himself if he finds two sacks. Giving those players an opportunity to pay off bonuses would be a fairly helpful compromise between resting starters and overextending backups. While individual goals aren't the focus in Buffalo, providing players a reasonable opportunity to reach incentives can be as good a team builder as anything your favorite human resources coordinator might cook up. It's a win-win-win. That doesn't mean those individual goals supersede keeping players healthy for a long playoff run. Managing personnel will be the most important part of Sunday for the Bills. Bring On Keon Coleman should get a healthy amount of playing time Sunday and he might need a quality game to show he deserves postseason opportunities. The Bills top draft pick has been fine. this year and shown plenty of promise. There's ample time and reason to believe Coleman can develop into an elite receiver. After a rough game last week, Coleman might still have to prove he can be trusted for this playoff, this January. The soaring through the air TD late saved an afternoon that included a pair of drops (both not easy catches, but need to be made on the professional level), a loss on a 1-on-1 jump ball in the end zone and a brutal third down rep where Josh Allen threw a back shoulder/comeback route and Coleman ended up flat on his belly. If there's a "gotta have it" down this postseason, I don't think Coleman is one of the top five pass catchers the Bills would prefer on the field. This week is his last opportunity to demonstrate otherwise. No Free Pass The Bills will be playing a ton of backups on defense this week, but that doesn't mean that defense won't be a problem. This is still the same Sean McDermott defense that's won nine of its last 11 against rookie quarterbacks. The same defense that shut down Drake Maye over the final three quarters two weeks ago. It's also a defense where the backups have a considerable amount of experience operating it. Kaiir Elam, Cam Lewis, Ja'Marcus Ingram and even Cole Bishop now are far from brand new to playing the McDermott system. The backups on the defensive line include veterans like Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson. Both players who have seasons of experience in the Bills defense. I think this D is going to have some teeth no matter who is on the field Sunday. Betting Things Allen put together another interception free game against the Jets to push me back into the black this season. I'm now 8-8 picking Bills game props and ahead half a unit. As of Saturday afternoon, there weren't many props available with Bills at Patriots. The bet I'd like to make is an anytime TD with Gilliam. Buffalo has tied the NFL record for the most unique players with a touchdown reception in a season with 13. There was definite interest in breaking that record in the locker room this week and, with no real stakes in the game, this seems like a super fun priority for Sunday. The caveat is Buffalo could easily break the record throwing a tackle eligible to an offensive lineman. The coaching staff is probably drooling over the possibility of proving that "Everybody Eats" can extend to even non-traditional "eaters". Unfortunately, wagering on a non-skill player to score is usually not available. Gilliam is the only skill guy without a TD catch who will play Sunday. Unless you want to count a Philly Special type trick play throwing back to Mitch Trubisky or Mike White to break the record. I'll try to update if I end up locating any odds that would allow such a bet. Considering how uncertain playing time is across the board for the Bills, there's nothing wrong with sitting this game out with the sportsbooks. The Pick It wasn't all that long ago the Bills had a 10-game preseason win streak going. This is an organization that takes pride in getting backups ready to play and the backups rave about the attention they get. The Patriots are a 3-13 team for a reason. This is not a squad heavily laden with talent. The Bills second teamers should match up quite nicely, in general, with the New England starters. Those Patriots starters and their coaches will be playing to win, but the organization would probably prefer to lose and hold on to the number one overall pick in next year's draft. There's also going to be a number of players for New England looking forward to their offseason and hoping to not get injured before it arrives. Players in the NFL aren't too different than you and me when it comes to vacation. They look forward to it just as much and it begins the moment the season ends. That is, unless you get injured. In that case, vacation season becomes rehab season. There's still a number of players that are fighting for jobs and will use Sunday as the last chance to generate the type of film that will keep employed by an NFL. For the rest, the number one goal Sunday is leave the field healthy enough to take the trip the next week that's already been booked. I think the variety of motivations will blur the focus for the Patriots this week and I think the Buffalo has enough personnel to take advantage. Even though they don't need to win, I'm still going with the Bills 20-17.