First Warning: Cold first, then rain or mix chances
Jan 03, 2025
Editor's Note: The video above shows the latest from the KXAN First Warning Weather team.
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Cold air is on track to arrive this weekend bringing well-below average temperatures all of next week and the potential for some wintry precipitation.
Colder than normal temperatures arrive next Tuesday (January 7)
Sub-freezing nights, but above freezing days
A cold front arriving late morning (north) and into the afternoon on Sunday (Jan. 5) should usher in the coldest stretch of weather since last winter.
In the lead-up to this cold blast, temperatures will slowly climb into the 70s this weekend.
Behind the front, we're expecting highs to drop only into the 40s for next week.
High temperatures for the next week
The colder air arrives as early as late Sunday morning in the northern Hill Country with temperatures dropping to below freezing by Monday morning everywhere in Central Texas.
We'll drop below freezing again each night and morning next week.
Low temperatures for the next week in Austin
If there's good news with our current temperature prediction it's that we'll only be below freezing during the late night and early morning hours with temperatures climbing above freezing by mid-late morning through early evening. This would limit the window for wintry precipitation (see below).
Wintry precipitation?
Wintry precipitation remains possible next week, mainly Wednesday-Friday.
The trend today has been a slight delay in the arrival of this precipitation with precipitation chances lowered slightly on Wednesday, but higher on Thursday. Some lingering wintry precipitation appears possible on Friday, but we should be starting to dry out then.
There still are vast differences among the computer models we look at, but a few more of them have trended more toward a wintry mix versus just plain rain or staying dry.
Precipitation coverage for the next week
Right now our team is forecasting a 30% chance of rain/wintry precipitation next Wednesday and a 50% chance of rain/wintry precipitation next Thursday with a 20% chance of rain/wintry precipitation next Friday.
These model outputs will continue to wiggle over the coming days. Once our higher resolution short-term models come into view of potential precipitation, our confidence will likely increase. That won't happen until later this weekend.
Plenty of uncertainty
We're now just two days away from the arrival of the much colder air and our highest confidence continues to revolve around the cold being long lasting and well below normal.
Our potential for wintry precipitation won't arrive until Wednesday at the earliest, so we still have several days to iron out the difficult wintry precipitation forecast.
Next week's cold and wintry mix potential
Subtle changes in storm tracks could make a big difference in precipitation type and whether we're to get precipitation at all.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we hammer down the details that make the difference in these situations.