Matt Krohn-Imagn Images In this week’s Honolulu Blueprint, we re-examine the Lions Week 7’s keys to victory and explore where to make adjustments when they face the Vikings in Week 18. The Detroit Lions (14-2) will square off with the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) in Week 18, with the NFC North, No. 1 seed in the NFC, home-field advantage in the Playoffs, and a first-round bye on the line. With so much to play for, it’s no surprise the NFL flexed this game to “Sunday Night Football,” which will be the final regular season game of the 2024/25 season. The Lions won the previous matchup, so for this installment in our keys to victory series, we will revisit our Honolulu Blueprint from Week 7, explore what was successful, what wasn’t, and any alterations that need to be made for Week 18. Vikings’ offensive and defensive schemes Since the Lions and Vikings have already faced off this season, we have already broken down Minnesota’s offensive and defensive schemes in a separate piece: Lions Week 7 Preview: Breaking down Vikings’ offensive and defensive schemes. So, be sure to check it out for more context related to this week’s keys to victory. Key 1: Continue to establish the run early Did it work? Yes, though it took a bit longer than expected. The goal of this “key” was to slow down the Vikings’ hot starts in games—they had been gaining three score leads coming into Week 7—which, in turn, would allow the Lions to stick with their rushing attack and control the pace of the game. Through the first quarter, the Lions only had 13 rushing yards and were down 10 points, but in the second quarter, the Lions rushed for 84 yards (75 from Jahmyr Gibbs) and scored 21 unanswered points. What’s changed? David Montgomery is on IR. While the Lions will be without Montgomery in this game, fortunately, Gibbs has stepped up in his absence. Adjustments? Keep Gibbs rolling. One of the biggest keys to victory in this game will be the Lions' ability to establish the run and it’ll start with the offensive line. On the season, they’ve allowed Lions’ backs to gain an average of 1.75 yards before they’re contacted by the defense (sixth best in the NFL). For Gibbs in particular, he’s averaged 2.5 yards gained before he has been contacted (best in the NFL). On the opposite side of the ball, the Vikings allow offenses to gain just 0.94 yards per rush (third-best in the NFL), making this a true power-versus-power situation. There is reason for optimism for Detroit though. While the Vikings allow an average of 88.1 rushing yards against (second-best), they did allow 104 to the Packers last week, as well as, 144 yards to Detroit in their meeting—with Gibbs accounting for 116 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, along with four receptions for 44 receiving yards. Furthermore, Gibbs is coming off two similar outings, where he has averaged 113 rushing yards and a touchdown, as well as four receptions for 45.5 receiving yards. Key 2: Goff, offensive line need preparation and patience Did it work? Yes and No. This “key” was centered around the offensive line giving Jared Goff enough time to assess the Vikings’ defense, and in turn, make the right decisions with the ball. Goff was sacked four times in Week 7, and while only one sack was credited to the offensive line (Taylor Decker), they did allow 16 pressures, per PFF. Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell had good games, but Decker, Graham Glasgow, and Kayode Awosika (replacing Kevin Zeitler) all underperformed. While the offensive line could improve their overall success, it’s hard to argue with the results they helped produce. Goff finished the game 22 of 25 passing for 280 yards and two touchdowns, with a quarterback rating of 140.0, illustrating his decisiveness with the football. What’s changed? Zeitler is healthy and starting at right guard. Adjustments? Improve on success. With the Lions' offensive line at full strength, we’ve seen this offense operate at high levels in recent weeks. Goff was highly efficient the last time these two teams met and there’s strong evidence to believe he can replicate his success based on his recent performances. Goff has had a passer rating over 100 in his previous five games, including 132.4 against the 49ers last week and 137.0 the week prior against the Bears—both road games. “The guy was a number one pick for a reason,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of Goff. “He’s been super talented throwing the football and here he is entering year nine and he’s got all of these banked reps from L.A. and now Detroit and they all add up. “The defense is moving slower, he knows where his eyes need to go, he knows what he’s trying to do. We’re really aggressive at times with what we put on his plate, and he doesn’t bat an eye, really, he embraces it. He came in this morning, he’s like, ‘Hey, load me up. I’m ready to go.’ So, that’s what we try to do and it’s a credit to him that he really wants to be able to control all (of it). He’s playing so well post-snap, and you guys are seeing that, (but) there’s not a lot of appreciation for what he does before the snap with the cadence, the motions, the shifts, the premiere plays that we try to get into at times. That’s what really, I think makes our offense special.” Key 3: Dial-up interior pressure with Alim McNeill Did it work? Nope. While the Lions managed four sacks in this game, three came from the linebacker level (Jack Campbell, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Trevor Nowaske) and the other from defensive end, Josh Paschal. Alim McNeill and DJ Reader did manage to record five of the Lions' 15 pressures, but McNeill was kept off the box score sheet, while Reader recorded just two tackles and a quarterback hit. What’s changed? McNeill is on IR. Adjustments? Keep blitzing. The Vikings and Lions blitz more than the majority of teams in the NFL. On the season, the Vikings' blitz rate is 39.9% of the time (most in the NFL), and they blitzed on 55.2% of passing plays the last time they played Detroit. The Lions are right up there with them. While their season blitz average is 36%, it’s worth recognizing that they’ve averaged 42.9% since losing Aidan Hutchinson in Week 6. The Lions' extra blitzing has resulted in more pressures, per Next Gen Stats the Lions have 220 on the season (fifth most), but the results have still been lackluster, with just 35 sacks on the season (24th). Regardless, the added pressure is a better option than simply letting Sam Darnold sit back and find the open man—like the Packers did last week. Key 4: Win the turnover battle Did it work? Technically a draw, but in reality, the Vikings came out winners here. Brian Branch forced an interception and Montgomery fumbled, resulting in an even swap in turnovers. While equal on paper, Montgomery’s fumble was returned for a touchdown, giving the Vikings the lead with six minutes remaining in the game. What’s changed? In raw numbers, both teams have cooled off a bit. Both teams have forced fewer turnovers since their last meeting, though they have maintained their status compared to the rest of the NFL. Overall, the Vikings are sixth in the NFL with a +0.6 turnover margin, while the Lions are still fourth with a +0.7 turnover margin. Adjustments? Carry over momentum from previous games. In their last three games, the Vikings have a turnover margin of +0.7 (10th), while the Lions are at +1.0 (seventh). Over that timeframe, Amon-Ra St. Brown fumbled once against the Bills, while the defense recovered two fumbles against the Bears and Kerby Joseph secured two interceptions against the 49ers. Goff has zero interceptions during this period of time and has actually only thrown just one interception in the past seven games. For the Vikings, Sam Darnold has thrown two interceptions in the previous three games, while Minnesota’s special teams recovered a fumble against the Bears, their defense secured two interceptions against the Seahawks, and recovered a fumble against the Packers. NEW: Quick hit adjustments Keep scoring at the average. The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in their last four games (slightly above their season average of 26.4), while the Lions have scored at least 34 points over that same time period (slightly over their average of 33.3). The magic number is 30. While scoring 34 points should be the target goal, it’s worth noting that the Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their previous three games (all wins) against Brian Flores’ defense in Minnesota. During Flores’ time as the Vikings defensive coordinator, he has only allowed teams to score 30 points six times, with the Lions accounting for three of those occurrences. Gibbs needs explosives. The Vikings are middle of the road in allowing runs of 10+ yards, while the Lions are a top-seven team with 63 on the season. Gibbs produces a run of 10+ yards on 16.3% of his runs (best in the NFL), so hitting or exceeding that average would do wonders. Man up on 3rd downs. The Vikings operate a heavy zone coverage scheme (they’re in zone 77% of the time, fourth-most) but in third and fourth down situations, they shift to man coverage 48.9% of the time. Against man coverage on third and fourth downs, Goff has a passer rating of 138.8, the best in the NFL.