Friday’s Speaker vote is shaping up to be a nailbiter as Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), the current House leader, is scrambling to keep the gavel for the next two years in the face of conservative critics furious with his leadership style.  The biennial vote has historically been a mundane affair — a rubber-stamp formalization of the Speakership post by members of the majority party who’ve already nominated their candidate and merely have to ratify that choice on the House floor to launch each new Congress. Johnson secured that nomination last month by unanimous consent of the GOP conference. But the process has changed with the rise of the populist right, whose members have demanded more power in crafting legislation — and more ideological purity from Republican leaders in pursuit of those policy aims.  Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) clashed dramatically with his right flank two years ago, when he struggled for a long and torturous four days to secure the support of his conservative detractors — an extraordinary process that required 15 rounds of votes. (Nine months later, some of those same critics would boot McCarthy from power). Johnson is facing a smaller group of internal doubters, and only one — Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) — is vowing explicitly to oppose Johnson during Friday’s floor vote. Yet roughly a dozen other conservatives, most of them representing the far-right House Freedom Caucus, are grumbling over Johnson’s approach to leadership — particularly his willingness to partner with Democrats to adopt must-pass legislation like funding the government — and they had yet to commit their support in the final day before Friday’s vote. Lending Johnson an enormous boost, President-elect Trump this week formally endorsed his Speakership bid, characterizing the Louisiana Republican as “a good, hard working, religious man.” Yet a number of conservatives have recently demonstrated a willingness to defy Trump’s advice on floor votes, adding another layer of uncertainty to the process governing Johnson’s fate.  Here are five things to watch as the events unfold during Friday’s vote.  The math is tough Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is seen during a press conference after a closed-door House Republican Conference meeting on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. Republicans have one of the slimmest House majorities in the history of Congress, filling 220 seats to the Democrats 215. And that advantage has been cut further by the resignation last month of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who won’t be replaced until Florida conducts a special election on April 1.  The math poses an enormous challenge for Johnson, who can afford to lose only one GOP detractor and still keep the gavel, assuming all members are in attendance and vote for a candidate. If Massie holds true to his vow to oppose Johnson on Friday, then the Speaker must hold the line and secure the support of every other Republican. Those rules reign as long as all members participate in the Speaker’s vote — and vote for a person. The math would change if there are absences, or if some members opt to vote “present.” Both scenarios could help Johnson by lowering the threshold required to win a majority of the chamber — a dynamic that helped McCarthy secure the gavel two years ago. Democrats don’t intend to make it easy. While the minority party had helped Johnson survive a Republican challenge to his Speakership last year, Democratic leaders have said in no uncertain terms that they would provide no similar assist in this week’s vote.   Instead, they’re likely to vote unanimously for their preferred Speaker, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), as they did two years ago. And all 215 Democrats are expected to be in the chamber for Friday’s vote. The detractors Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) asks questions during a House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet hearing titled, "Radio, Music, and Copyrights: 100 Years of Inequity for Recording Artists" at the Capitol on June 26, 2024. Massie is the only GOP lawmaker who has announced firm opposition to Johnson thus far, vowing on a number of occasions to vote for a candidate other than the Louisiana Republican come Friday. He signaled that remained his position even after Trump endorsed Johnson for the top job, writing on X that the Louisiana Republican “partner[ed] with the democrats to send money to Ukraine, authorize spying on Americans, and blow the budget.” Massie initially endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the presidential primary, making him no close ally of Trump. The Kentucky Republican laid out his case against Johnson in a lengthy social media post on Tuesday, warning that Republicans will lose the House in 2026 if the incumbent Speaker remains at the helm. “He was only electable the first time because he hadn’t held any type of leadership position, nor had he ever fought for anything, so no one disliked him and everyone was tired of voting. He won by being the least objectionable candidate, and he no longer possesses that title,” Massie wrote. Massie, who is known for his independent streak on Capitol Hill, is no stranger to being a lone opponent on Capitol Hill: The congressman was the only GOP lawmaker to oppose then-Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) bid to remain Speaker in 2017. The demands Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) arrives for a series of votes in the House Chamber at the Capitol on June 5, 2024. While Massie is, thus far, the only Republican formally saying they will oppose Johnson, a host of other Republicans have not yet said where they stand on the Speaker’s bid — leaving his chances in limbo just hours before voting begins. At the top of that list is Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), who is known for her unpredictability on Capitol Hill. The congresswoman turned heads last month when she said she would not sit on House committees or take part in House GOP conferences because she would prefer to focus on assisting “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) efforts. Earlier this week, the Indiana Republican laid out a series of commitments “our next SPEAKER must COMMIT PUBLICLY” to, which focus on spending issues. On Friday, Spartz said she would decide who to vote on Johnson’s bid on Friday — the day of the election. Behind Spartz, a handful of hardline conservatives — many of whom in the House Freedom Caucus — have withheld support from Johnson, making his path to the gavel even more difficult. The list includes Republican Reps. Chip Roy (Texas), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Scott Perry (Pa.), and Andy Harris (Md.), among others. Those undecided GOP lawmakers are largely seeking promises on spending cuts and assurances that rank-and-file members will be included in negotiations for big pieces of legislation moving forward, sources told The Hill. Additionally, Harris, the chairman of the Freedom Caucus, has aired frustrations with how funding for the rebuilding of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore was handled in December’s spending bill, three sources told The Hill. Harris wanted the bill to prevent renaming of the bridge — something that activists had called for because Key owned slaves — and wanted a project labor agreement to not be required, but allowed. Similarities — and differences — from McCarthy’s test Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) addresses reporters following a closed-door House Republican Conference meeting on Wednesday, September 27, 2023. McCarthy, in order to secure the gavel two years ago, was forced to make very specific concessions to very specific demands brought to the table by conservative Republicans hoping to change the culture of Washington and shrink the federal government.  Those demands were forecast by months of conversations leading up to the Speaker vote in January of 2023, and the parlaying resulted in a series of House rules changes that led, ironically, to McCarthy’s ouster later in the year. The forces driving the opposition to Johnson appear to be very different. While individual members have aired gripes with Johnson’s leadership style, the calls for specific reforms have been tougher to pin down — a distinction that’s made it tougher for Johnson to accommodate his critics en masse. McCarthy’s opponents were also easier to identify. Gaetz, a leading antagonist, not only snarled McCarthy’s path to the Speakership during the initial vote, he also led the charge in removing him nine months later. Many saw Gaetz’s opposition to McCarthy’s Speaker bid rooted in personal animosity. “It feels very different than the McCarthy race,” a senior House Republican told The Hill. “McCarthy was more personal, if you look at Matt Gaetz and the deals that were cut. Mike Johnson’s got a lot of good qualities, he’s got a lot of things that he can improve on… Mike is an honest broker. He’s not a political animal like McCarthy was.” The opposition to Johnson, by contrast, has morphed with the passage of time. Last May, it was Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) who forced a floor vote on Johnson’s ouster, while Freedom Caucus figures like Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) voted to keep him in power. This time around, after Johnson received Trump’s backing, Greene is supporting the Speaker, while Harris is now on the fence.  Potential ramifications President-elect Trump speaks at AmericaFest, Dec. 22, 2024, in Phoenix. Friday’s vote could prove to be anti-climactic: Johnson might very well secure the votes he needs on the first round and seize the gavel for another two years. But even a tiny trickle of conservative resistance would prevent his Speakership victory — and carries the potential to throw Washington into a state of chaos for the indefinite future.  That’s because a protracted effort to win over Johnson’s critics — or to locate an alternative candidate capable of winning enough votes to replace him — would run quickly into the process of certifying Trump’s presidential victory, which is slated for Jan. 6. That ritual requires the meeting of a joint session of Congress, which would be impossible to convene without a Speaker in place, not least because the members of the new Congress can’t be seated before the Speaker is appointed to swear them in.  A longer fight could also run up against Trump’s inauguration, which is scheduled for Jan. 20. And a marathon battle to seat a Speaker would quickly complicate Trump’s designs to move an ambitious legislative agenda that touches on virtually every facet of how the federal government operates — a blitz of reforms the new president, with help from GOP majorities in Congress — is hoping to jumpstart in his first 100 days.