First Warning: Subfreezing lows a wintry mix chance
Jan 02, 2025
Editor's Note: The video above shows the latest from the KXAN First Warning Weather team.
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Cold air is on track to arrive late this weekend bringing well-below average temperatures most of next week.
Colder than normal temperatures arrive next Tuesday (January 7)
Turning much colder for longer
A cold front arriving during the afternoon on Sunday (Jan. 5) should usher in the coldest stretch of weather since last winter.
In the lead-up to this cold blast, temperatures will slowly climb from the 60s for the rest of this week into the 70s this weekend.
Behind the front, we're expecting highs to drop only into the 40s for most of next week.
High temperatures for the next week
The colder air is arriving earlier and temperatures have trended a little bit lower for next week.
Low temperatures should drop below freezing as early as Monday morning for most of us and again Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.
Low temperatures for the next week in Austin
It looks as though Austin's Camp Mabry will get its first freeze since last February. Camp Mabry hasn't seen a freeze in the last few months despite most neighboring areas dropping to or below 32º.
Austin typically sees its first freeze around Dec. 1.
If there's good news with our current temperature prediction it's that we'll only be below freezing during the late night and early morning hours with temperatures climbing above freezing by mid-late morning through early evening. This would limit the window for wintry precipitation (see below).
Wintry precipitation?
Some of our long-term computer models continue to suggest at least the chance for some wintry precipitation to come along with the cold.
These are two of the deterministic versions of computer models we look at; the American Model (GFS) and the European Model (ECMWF). Remember...these will likely change *a lot* over the coming days.
American Model (GFS) for Wednesday
European Model (ECMWF) for Thursday
For reference, blue indicates the potential for snow. The pink color is a wintry mix of snow, sleet, rain or freezing rain. Green means plain rain.
As you can see, the American Model (GFS) has wintry weather overhead on Wednesday while the European Model (ECMWF) keeps us dry on Wednesday, but instead brings in precipitation on Thursday, but keeps it mainly as cold rain.
Right now our team is forecasting a 20% chance of rain/wintry precipitation next Wednesday and a 30% chance of rain/wintry precipitation next Thursday.
These model outputs will continue to wiggle over the coming days. Once our higher resolution short-term models come into view of potential precipitation, our confidence will likely increase. That won't happen until later this weekend.
Plenty of uncertainty
With still several days away from the arrival of the coldest temperatures and potential for wintry precipitation, it's still too early to talk about specific impacts from any wintry mix, but we're feeling confident in the arrival of the cold and sub-freezing nighttime lows.
Our lowest confidence continues to revolve around the potential for wintry precipitation. Wednesday and Thursday appears our highest likelihood for a mix of wintry weather with the early mornings and late nights being our most likely times based on surface temperatures being coldest.
Cold is on track for next week, but wintry precipitation is possible
Subtle changes in storm tracks could make a big difference in precipitation type and whether we're to get precipitation at all.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we hammer down the details that make the difference in these situations.