One of the forgotten moments of Barack Obama’s presidency came early, on Feb. 12, 2009. It was the 200th anniversary of the birth of Abraham Lincoln, the greatest of all American leaders, and the powerful symbolism of it coinciding with the arrival of the first Black president was impossible to miss. Speaking at the Capitol, Obama represented the embodiment of Lincoln’s dream of an America that was truly free, united and enduring. “What Lincoln never forgot,” Obama said, “not even in the midst of civil war, was that despite all that divides us — North and South, Black and white — we were, at heart, one nation and one people, sharing a bond as Americans that could bend but would not break.” We’ve spent the past nine years trying to prove Obama wrong. The president who succeeded him, who will also succeed Joe Biden, is much more focused on our divisions and how to exploit them. From Donald Trump’s second term, we may find out whether there are limits to how far that national bond can be bent. As it happens, the nation is approaching an even more monumental milestone — 2026 brings the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, which marked the birth of the United States of America. The men gathered in Philadelphia in the summer of 1776 were willing to brave great dangers to establish a nation based on the consent of the governed and the sacred rights of every person. They had no way of knowing that their great experiment in democracy would last for a quarter of a millennium. Presiding over the commemorations surrounding July 4, 2026, will be a leader who has vowed to be a dictator, but only on his first day. Obama was ideally suited to invoke the wisdom of the Great Emancipator. What Founding Father could Trump convincingly invoke? It would be gratifying to begin 2025 with a feeling of optimism, as we turn the page from a bitter presidential election. But I used to keep a sign in my office that said, “I am not here to cheer you up.” This is not a moment to succumb to despair, but it’s also not one to engage in false hope. The coming year is likely to impose a severe test of our fundamental national character. During his first term, after all, Trump showed little regard for the constitutional obligations of his office, much less the norms of behavior established by predecessors going back to George Washington. No president has ever done so much to foment a corrosive distrust of our democratic institutions. Despite winning in 2016, he claimed to be the victim of massive ballot fraud. But that was just the prelude to 2020, when he spent months warning that Democrats were rigging the election — and then refused to accept his defeat. His campaign of denial culminated in the assault on the U.S. Capitol by supporters hell-bent on preventing Congress from certifying Biden’s victory. With the exception of the Civil War, nothing in our history compares with that attack on the Constitution. So the question whose answer will become clearer this year is not whether the great American experiment in democracy will last for another 2 ½ centuries, but whether it will survive the next four years. Do most Americans care? Judging from their decision to return Trump to the White House, they don’t put a high priority on preserving what the framers created. This complacency is the product of Trump’s relentless assault on governing traditions, recognized limits on presidential power and factual reality. A lot of people simply believe his lies and accept his conduct, while others don’t know what to think. Others are simply numb to his behavior. He has made the outrageous commonplace. Even many people who oppose him are exhausted by the incessant battle, to the extent that they are tuning out, if not giving up. All this is the intended consequence of the MAGA strategy so vividly described by Trump ally Steve Bannon: endlessly flooding the zone with fecal matter. If there is reason for hope, it lies in the near certainty that Trump will overplay his hand. He claims “an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” even though he won the popular vote by an unusually narrow margin. He will be further emboldened by the Republican Party’s control of both houses of Congress. Former President Donald Trump listens during a National Association of Black Journalists annual convention event at Hilton Chicago on July 31, 2024. (Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune) There are two ways in which Trump could go very wrong. The first is in the usual ways presidents mess things up: by pursuing maladaptive policies on normal issues, such as the economy, federal programs and foreign policy. The second is by escalating his campaign against democratic norms, legitimate dissent and the rule of law. Either could provoke a powerful backlash in public sentiment. Start with the first category, which includes his vow to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada unless they shut down the flow of illegal drugs and migrants. During the campaign, he called for 60% tariffs on imports from China. Add to that his promise of mass deportations of foreigners in the U.S. illegally, whose numbers amount to some 11 million. These two policies alone, University of California at Berkeley economist Brad DeLong said, would “in all likelihood generate a combination of inflation and depression America has never before seen.” Corporate CEOs anguish over the prospect of heavy import taxes that will ravage their operations. “Some companies and Republicans are holding out hope that Trump’s promises to impose stiff tariffs won’t translate into action,” The Wall Street Journal reports. Trump outpolled Democratic rival Kamala Harris among Americans whose household income is less than $50,000 a year, but many of them may be unpleasantly surprised by what he does. The Washington Post recently reported on attitudes among Trump fans in New Castle, Pennsylvania, one of the poorest communities in the state — which Trump carried. Some of his supporters depend on government assistance and are blithely certain that he won’t cut their benefits. Others fret that he may. But given the promise by Trump mega-adviser Elon Musk to slash federal spending by at least $2 trillion a year and the GOP’s desire to take an ax to the budget, programs such as food stamps, housing vouchers and Medicaid are all at risk. Business owners large and small favored Trump, even though the economy grew at a healthy clip under Biden, while profits soared. They may experience buyer’s remorse once the incoming administration starts removing immigrants by the planeload. An invasion of factories and warehouses by gun-toting agents of Immigration and Customs Enforcement is not something businesspeople would welcome. But workplace raids are coming back, according to Trump’s “border czar,” Tom Homan. “We know that employers are going to be upset,” Homan admitted. So will many employees who are citizens, whose own jobs may be at risk if their companies lose skilled co-workers. A lot of people who helped elect Trump didn’t take account of a law that he can’t repeal — the law of unintended consequences. He may trip himself up in the same way as many other presidents have, by fumbling the conventional demands of the job. Some of those involve foreign policy. Trump’s allies portrayed him as an anti-war candidate, who would keep the U.S. out of foreign wars. But in recent weeks, he’s waxed belligerent, threatening to seize the Panama Canal and insisting on the “absolute necessity” of acquiring Greenland. It’s not hard to imagine him going to war with Iran. But Trump also poses a danger that is peculiar to him: to basic liberties and the rule of law. He wants to use the Justice Department to punish his perceived enemies, and he intends to do everything he can to muffle critics, never mind that pesky First Amendment. Trump has sued the Des Moines Register on the ludicrous claim that it committed “brazen election interference” by publishing a poll indicating that Harris was ahead of him in Iowa. He urged that ABC be stripped of its broadcasting rights for allegedly rigging his debate with Harris, and he sued CBS over its editing of an interview with her. In his first administration, Trump was constrained by sober, responsible aides and advisers — many of whom came to regard him as thoroughly unfit for the office. In his second, however, he will be served by energetic accomplices who share his malicious impulses. One of them is Kash Patel, his choice to head the FBI, who has said, “We’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections. Whether it’s criminally or civilly, we’ll figure that out.” That statement, a naked threat based on a brazen lie, epitomizes the Trump method. If you doubt that Trump represents a unique peril to democracy, think back to the ghastly images of Jan. 6, when insurrectionists battered police officers and bayed for the lynching of Vice President Mike Pence. Trump has pledged to pardon most of those who committed crimes that day. Another reason to expect the worst: the Supreme Court decision last summer granting presidents broad immunity for any crimes they may commit in office. In his first term, Trump had to contend with the possibility of being removed by impeachment or prosecuted after leaving the White House. This time, he can indulge his whims without either worry. And he can order his aides to ignore the law, promising pardons to all. We can hope that his destructive habits will induce resistance from Congress, the courts and the public and that our institutions can weather the storm. But nothing should be taken for granted. The coming year may be better or worse than the objective indicators suggest. But it will not be inconsequential. Steve Chapman was a member of the Tribune Editorial Board from 1981 to 2021. His columns, exclusive to the Tribune, now appear the first week of every month. He can be reached at [email protected]. Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email [email protected].