Joe's Blog: Rumors of a snowstorm (12/31)
Dec 31, 2024
It started yesterday... big bad graphics from some sources on the internet, on social media, and elsewhere. Big maps with big snow accumulations over the weekend.
All because of a storm some 4,000 miles away, if not more, moving through the northern Pacific Ocean that potentially could impact us at some point over the weekend.
I got on my little soapbox last night and tried to urge those who were seeing these crazy graphics to perhaps question their sources, whether known or unknown.
See the latest forecast, maps and radar for Kansas City
The apps that many have on their phones were also going nuts as well, and certainly not helping things out.
The issue isn't whether or not there will be a storm of sorts this weekend; there likely will be, but so many specifics are unknown, including timing and precipitation types, which in the end could affect the snow totals in the region as a whole.
For a system that is four-to-five days away, and considering where it is, we just need to let this breathe a bit... and yet also alert you that a wintry system is likely coming this weekend that could impact roads, especially later Saturday into Sunday.
Forecast
Today: Cloudy, blustery and colder with steady temperatures mostly in the mid-upper 30s. Winds gusting to 30 MPH at times
Tonight: The clouds may not break up. If they do we drop into the 20s, if not we stay closer to 30° or so. Winds will be lighter
Tomorrow: Sunny and pleasant with highs closer to 42°. Some clouds later in the day
Thursday: There may be some snow showers or a patch or two of a wintry mix move through. Variable clouds as well, highs still well into the 30s. There maybe some dustings in areas that get snow to last a bit longer, especially towards northern Missouri.
Discussion
So, there are some guarantees in the blog. One of the main ones is the bitterly cold weather that will be moving in toward the weekend and beyond for most of next week as repeated surges of Arctic air are on the, way sending temperatures way down and potentially sub-zero for lows,
This is a given.
What's not set in stone is whether there will be accumulating snows, which I think there will be... whether there will be some ice (freezing rain or sleet).... there may be that too, and whether there will be accumulating snows (as mentioned I think there will be but how much for any area is a huge variable).
Will this be a big snowstorm? It could be, yes. Will this be a snow that covers the ground with lighter amounts? It could be, yes.
What we don't know, and why I'm on my soapbox, is just how much and who perhaps would get more snow than another place. Could it be Kansas City northwards, or Kansas City southwards, or the I-70 corridor? These are things that will be worked out into the end of the week.
That system in question is wayyyy out in the Pacific Ocean. The actual system is a small disturbance about to get slingshotted by a bigger storm to its east. The system in question is the X and the slingshotter is the !
The two will interact with each other and what comes out of the "!" will eventually be the main wave to track as it moves through the eastern Pacific heading into Friday and comes ashore on the coast of WA/OR Friday night.
Our model data is VERY locked in on this.
From there, the system will then drop into the 4 Corners area. This is a favorable path for a winter storm locally, and it will do this into Saturday evening. Our models are VERY locked in on this as well.
From here though we start to see differences in timing and placement of the storm in question, and that is the rub, because from Saturday night into Sunday it may impact us locally with "something."
Some data shows a potential sleet/graupel/light freezing rain set-up IF anything develops later Saturday because of an above-freezing layer of air several thousand feet up and a lack of decent snowflake formation in the clouds above us. The EURO has been a bit more persistent in this
The GFS overwhelms the region with colder air, so likely whatever were to fall would be snow, but its last couple of runs have trended a bit more south because the cold air pushes things further south to some extent. The Canadian model has this as more of a Kansas City hit of snow.
Again, various outputs with various outcomes.
Again, from this far out, it's interesting to track, but a deeper dive will have to wait another day or two, I think.
What I will share with you is that the ensembles, which are multiple runs of the same model, which then we can average out (while also all over the place individually), are showing chances of at least 1" of snow running close to 50%
So, what I want to show you are comparisons between the EURO ensembles (some 50 individual computer runs averaged together) and the GFS ensembles (some 30 computer runs averaged together), which show the chances of at least 1" and 3 " snow totals.
First, the EURO/GFS ensembles of 1"+ snows. Use the slider bar to see the subtle differences. There is a bit of a time shift as well since the GFS runs are slightly slower with impacts compared to the EURO runs. Slide right for the EURO ensembles and left for the GFS ensembles
You can see there is pretty decent agreement on the risks
Now same data for the 3"+ risks
30-50% chances depending on the ensemble picked.
So again, accumulating snow is very much on the table. From there though, it gets muddled, and hence the slow play for specifics from this far out.
Also, as mentioned, the EURO's solution has an above-freezing layer of air (that may or may not exist) a few thousand feet above us for the first 12 hours of the event, while the overnight GFS gets that layer of above-freezing air up towards the US 50 corridor with areas north of there in full snow-supporting mode.
These little details are cautionary notes to continue to slow play the high-end potential from this.
We're set up for a winter storm. But we've had dozens of set-ups over the decades that don't work out for whatever reason, and that too is always in the back of my mind for this scenario. How the cold air dumping into the Plains may play a vital role in how this plays out.
Again, let's give this room to breathe for a few days and remember, the cold is a guarantee.
Before we even get there, there is a minor system that bears watching to some degree for Thursday late morning to afternoon that could have some snow with it.
I don't think it will be overly impactful for Kansas City because of the light snow risks, but we'll watch it and see how it holds together as it comes towards us and into some drier air above us, but some dustings are possible with that little fast-moving wave it appears.
The feature photo today is from Bill Patterson out towards Melvern Lake
There WILL be a blog tomorrow, even with the holiday and the fact that I'm technically off.
Joe