Three things on my mind as I recover from the metric ton of Christmas cookies consumed over the last week... MVPriorities Josh Allen probably still has a healthy lead in the MVP race, but he might need one more good game to close it out. The Bills talked plenty this week about how much it would mean if Allen wins. Dion Dawkins said he thinks the O-Line should get a trip to Disney on Allen's dime. Dawkins laughed at his own idea and followed with, "I'm joking... but not really." The fact that Dawkins can throw out a vacation to the world's most popular theme park for a group of nearly a dozen of the world's largest dining expense liabilities and have it feel... reasonable... underscores how big a deal an Allen MVP would be for the organization. It's an acknowledgement of Allen's greatness that's been craved for a year or two. The lack of which is likely a part of why Brandon Beane was so adamant firing back at the "overrated" label of Allen back in training camp. Dawkins also pointed out that the offensive line can't awards. This would be an award for them, too. After saying all that, I don't think the MVP will be much a part of the game plan Sunday. The priorities begin with winning the game and clinching the 2-seed. After that, it's staying healthy. I really think if the Bills could figure a way to pad Allen stats and help secure the MVP, they would do it. I also think there's very little chance Sean McDermott puts Allen in any unnecessary danger to win an individual award and Allen isn't the type of player to demand it. Don't expect anything wildly out of the ordinary Sunday. Jet Fueled Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas have been an excellent corner tandem for the Bills this year. Benford, especially, has taken a huge jump into the elite group of CB's this season. Elite receivers this year have all still found plenty of success against the Bills. Puka Nacua had 162 yards and two touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown went for 193 and a score. Nico Collins had 78 yards and a touchdown in one quarter. Even Tyreek Hill beat his yardage over/under for the first time ever in a regular season game against the Bills (yep, that still stings). Garrett Wilson can be included in that group, with eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in the first game between these two teams. This time, Wilson will be joined outside by Davante Adams who has topped 100 yards in two of the last three games and has at least 66 yards and a touchdown in each of his last four games. The rain in the forecast might douse any sort of passing fire for either side and there's a chance the Jets are close enough to the finish line of a horrible season to simply go through the motions a bit. Wilson/Adams vs. Benford/Douglas will still be the top best-on-best matchup in this game. It also presents the Bills secondary with a solid test heading to the playoffs. It's the type of test they haven't passed much this season. Retreat From Darkness The Jets have blown six fourth quarter leads this season. That's the most in the league this season and the most in Jets franchise history. Setting a Jet franchise record for futility is no small accomplishment. How did they pull it off? Committing the third most penalties in the league helps. They've also cycled through four different kickers. Greg Zuerlein is back in the saddle this week. You might remember him from missing two kicks in Buffalo's three point win against the Jets in October. Despite have a defense that's 4th in rush yards allowed per carry, 5th in passing yards allowed and 1st in passing touchdowns allowed, the Jets are still giving up points at the 4th highest rate (per possession) in the league. This is a team that's been quite successful at finding ways to lose. The Bills best plan is to just stay out of the way. Betting Things Got a nice win last week using Bills history against rookie quarterbacks as a guide. Drake Maye threw an interception in a his 7th consecutive game plus the Bills continued a trend of not allowing more than 21 points to rookie quarterbacks who don't operate the Dolphins offense. New England stopped at exactly 21. I'm closing in on square for the season with a record of 7-8 and a total that's 0.2 units in the red. Considering the above Jets lack of success at the end of games, I debated the Bills laying points in the second half or fourth quarter. I also thought about a Jets second half total points under. Turns out, the Jets are remarkably inconsistent after halftime. They've been shutout in four of the last nine in the second half. In the other five games, New York is averaging nearly 19 points in the second half and winning the final two quarters by over five points per game. I decided the Jets in the second half were not to be trusted (accurate on a variety of levels). Instead, I'll take a swing at season long trends. Only two teams have less than the Jets five interceptions this year. Only two regular starting QBs have less than Allen's five INTs this year. FanDuel has Allen to avoid an interception at -128. That's a nice number for something that seems fairly likely and that's the play to get back to .500 for the season. The Pick The Bills spent a good amount of time after the game against New England and in the week since talking about how tough division games can be. No matter the record. It's possible they didn't quite think that before last week's tighter than expected contest with the Patriots. Either way, the Bills certainly believe it now. It should make them better prepared for the type of challenge they got from New England last week. Injury situations do favor the Bills this week. Safety is still a mess with both starters and Cam Lewis questionable for this week, but Buffalo is otherwise healthy save for Curtis Samuel. The Jets have nine players questionable. Star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams did not play last week. Top corner Sauce Gardner is among players who are legitimately questionable. Aaron Rodgers is nursing a knee injury. With the 1-seed no longer on the table and the odds for a 2-seed quite high, I do think the Bills will lean more towards protecting injured players and parts of the playbook to save both for the postseason. There was a noticeable lack of creativity that hampered the offense in the first half against New England. It wasn't the only issue for sure, but it doesn't help when a team is not deploying the full arsenal. Don't be surprised if Buffalo goes a bit conservative again and this game is somewhat close again. I think the Bills will come out better focused this week. There's a much more clear direction for the season now. Win this week and secure the 2-seed. Use next week as a de facto bye week. Be prepared for a home game in round one the week after that. I think the definite path settles the Bills down a bit. Couple that with a rainy day that should have a 4-11 team dreaming about how warm and dry the bus is and I think the Bills put together a more comfortable win. Give me Buffalo 27-13.