We're in a lather rinse repeat scenario again today as some areas are starting with some fog, while others have some light rain or heavy drizzle falling. All areas though are running about 30° above average to start the day which is rather remarkable for this time of the year. Our low this morning has been 49°...the record warm low for today is 48° set in 2003. It's possible we can be there towards 11:59 PM tonight to tie the record but if we fall to 47° or lower before 12AM...it won't be a record. It will be in the top 3 of warmest lows for today's date though. The mild weather will continue into Monday before an incursion of more seasonable air moves into the region for a few days next week. There is another chance of rain with that transition and potentially some snowflakes mixing in, especially towards northern MO (there may be some sticking snow up there). Overall though the chillier weather isn't really that remarkable in terms of strength. It's just going to take us a bit below average for a couple of days with a potential warm-up next weekend. We are still waiting on snow of consequence. It may be quite the wait. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Forecast: Today: Cloudy, with increasing areas of light rain developing. Highs pretty steady in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tonight: There may be some clearing at some point, which if that happens may generate more fog. Lows dropping into the 30s Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with highs in the lower 50s Sunday: Nicer, although there may be some morning fog around. Highs in the low to mid 50s ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Discussion: Sunshine has been in very limited supply this week, that was expected and it's not any better this morning. Radar does have some rain on it as well. The morning surface map shows lots of red/magenta circles indicating lower clouds and reduced ceilings, most of which is being caused by fog. The red circles show Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) while the magenta circles indicate Low Instrument Flight Rules (LIFR) The difference...the cloud bases and/or visibilities. IFR means ceilings (cloud bases) between 500-1000 feet up and/or 1-3 miles visibility, while LIFR means ceilings below 500 feet and/or under 1 mile visibility. Each station is also showing the 8AM visibility as well in the smaller numbers on the left side of the observation, typically in fractions. So there is a lot of fog in the region as a whole BUT there is no snow out there on that map at all. That's been the way of things this month. Many are wondering where's the December snows? So far this month…just a trace. This may end up being the 9th December this century with either a under 1/2" during the month. Rather remarkable Of the 8 previous Decembers with the low totals…6 were below average for the season overall. Lowest: 20-11-12 with 3.9" (all time low)…most 2018-19 with 29.1" overall (7.6" that November). Here we wait. There is a chance on Monday night or Tuesday morning for some flakes, it might be tough for it to stick but it will be connected to the incursion of colder air, a return back to average or a bit below starting Tuesday. There may be enough moisture behind the front and with another decent surface low passing south of the area, south of I-44 precip will be wrapping southwards into the region and with the atmosphere being colder towards and after midnight on Tuesday morning the chance of at least some snow will increase. Perhaps better towards northern MO, it can't be ruled out closer to I-70 at this point. It's not a very synced up atmosphere though as the timing has to work out perfectly with the departing precip early Tuesday morning but a chance is a chance I guess in a winter that the chances haven't exactly been coming fast and furious. The country as a whole hasn't exactly had a lot of snow this snow season so far either. So it's not just us. The lake effect areas have bee clobbered but in general most other areas haven't at least compared to average. Those are some really low totals in NE/IA/IL as well as the Dakotas. Our better snows come from waves coming out of the southwest or sometimes coming out of the Rockies. On occasion we can get swaths of snow from waves coming from the northwest but that is a lot more challenging. The overall pattern into almost mid January looks like we're going to have to rely on waves from the NW and not the SW...and that isn't a promising scenario for big snows locally. It's also a pattern that will favor ups and downs in rapid succession without anything locking in so odds would favor minor snow totals into the 6th of the month at this point. The GFS ensemble chances of at least 1" of snow aren't so great. So it goes snow lovers. Snow haters though are very happy with this blog I think. The feature photo comes from Matthew Reinschmidt. The horse doesn't look too impressed. Joe