Emptying the fields: Mass deportations, consequences in Kern County
Dec 23, 2024
BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) -- The transition is well underway for president-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House.
From his explosive cabinet appointments that sparked questions -- and in some cases, ridicule -- to weighing in on how to keep the government funded, Trump is staying busy.
But continuing to make headlines is his grand promise of the largest deportation in American history.
Experts warn the loss of undocumented immigrants could destroy the agriculture industry, especially here in Kern.
Here's 17's Jenny Huh with the deep dive in her special report, "Emptying the fields: Mass deportations, consequences in Kern." For Kern County -- one of the top producers of grapes, citrus and tree nuts -- this phrase is nothing new: we're the breadbasket of the state.
But without those behind-the-scenes -- the farm workers -- our agriculture industry will likely take a hard financial hit.
In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Trump touched on his plans for mass deportations.
When asked if he plans on deporting all immigrants who entered the country illegally, Trump answered, "Well, I think you have to do it, and it’s a hard — it’s a very tough thing to do. But you have to have rules, regulations, laws. They came in illegally."
But the president elect emphasized, "We're starting with the criminals, and we've got to do it. And then we're starting with others and we're going to see how it goes."
NBC News: "Who are the others?"
Donald Trump: "Others are other people outside of criminals."
It's unclear exactly what policies will be enacted come 2025, but proposals have been loud and clear.
And Trump's top choice as border czar -- former ICE acting director Tom Homan -- is echoing the plans.
In an interview with CBS News, Homan stated, "Mass deportations should not be threatening to the immigrant community, it should be threatening to the illegal immigrant community."
Trump was asked in the aforementioned NBC News if such would be the case.
He gave his green light, answering, "Well, I don't want to be breaking up families, so the only way you don't break up the family is you keep them together and you have to send them all back."
Putting politics aside, local experts say the economic effects of losing immigrant -- even just undocumented -- workers are undeniable and huge.
"We'd see higher prices. We'd actually see food inflation and other inflation… you would actually see wage decreases in a lot of the sectors because of the higher costs, said Dr. Richard Gearhart, an associate professor of economics at Cal State University, Bakersfield.
"That is Rust Belt level, Appalachia level economic devastation. That is something that we would see if oil production shut down immediately," Dr. Gearhart continued. "Immigrants are the equivalent of oil."
Gearhart -- who focuses on labor -- said of Kern's population of 900,000, about 180,000 are foreign born. That's about 20% of the county population.
And he said of them, nearly 70,000 are undocumented, most from Mexico and Central America.
According to the California Immigrant Data Portal, nearly three-fourths of Kern's undocumented population live with a citizen or legal resident.
Many undocumented individuals work in the fields.
"They play a vital role to the success of Kern County ag, said Alex Dominguez, 1st vice president of the Kern County Farm Bureau. "Agriculture really is the life blood of Kern."
Kern Agricultural Commissioner Glenn Fankhauser told 17 News, "As of 2023, we're the number one agricultural producing county in California, which essentially makes us number one ag producing county in the country."
Alex Dominguez with the Kern Farm Bureau, addressed the hypothetical of a mass deportation.
"If one day overnight they all disappeared, it'd be a problem," he said.
Dr. Gearhart agreed: "[The loss would be] wholly detrimental… $4 to $10 billion lost a year, in a Kern County economy that's $55 billion."
The professor continued, "[Farmworkers] do tend to follow the crop production and move up and down the entire Central Valley. So, this negative economic impact isn't going to only be limited to Kern County's economy."
Further breaking down the numbers?
Gearhart, who's also co-publisher and managing editor of the Kern Economic Journal, stated about $8 billion per year can be lost in ag alone.
"About a 7% decline in Kern County GDP," he said. "We send tree nuts; we send fruits and we send vegetables across the world. And best estimates are we'll see a 10-20% decrease in our export values."
Ag Commissioner Fankhauser weighed in.
"The farmers need that labor," he said. "And it would be difficult for a farmer to have a labor shortage during a time when they need it to harvest because the crop may essentially just go unharvested and rot in the vine or on the tree, and that would be unfortunate for everybody. That's a waste."
Fankhauser also noted while it's hard to pinpoint how many farmworkers are in Kern, his department knows how many farms operate locally.
"We issue about a thousand permits a year," Fankhauser began. "A large farm entity could have several permits… This year we have 672 farm labor contractor companies that are registered in Kern County."
He further explained, "It is a good number, and it is a gauge of how much farm work we have in Kern County."
17 News attempted to contact several of those labor contractors.
They all declined to or did not respond to requests for comment.
"We have the need in Kern County essentially year-round for a work force… It's not just during harvest you need farmworkers," Fankhauser said. "You need farmworkers during the growing season to apply pesticides, to do pruning or various other activities -- to clean up the growing ground so that you can produce the best and safest food that you can."
Fankhauser also highlighted the Annual Crop Report for 2023.
Kern saw a 12% increase in crop value, reaching a total gross value of $8.6 billion.
"The highest that we've ever had and the highest that's ever been in the state," he detailed.
"[We need] readily available, skilled and reliable agricultural workers," Dominguez said. "And so that's what we as the Farm Bureau go out and advocate for when it comes to immigration policy and other related topics."
He added, "We're hopeful that president-elect Trump will sit down with stakeholders in the ag community so that way we can do what Farm Bureau does best, and that is tell the story of Kern County agriculture."
Experts also warn the effects of mass deportation will extend beyond the fields.
"You are going to see food trucks closing down, you'll see Mexican restaurants closing down," said Dr. Gearhart. "[When you get into] housekeeping, landscaping, gardening services, you're starting to move into the tens of billions of dollars."
Border czar Tom Homan has recently noted the incoming administration will arrest, detain and remove millions of illegal immigrants.
And Homan has said in sanctuary cities and states -- like California -- collateral arrests will be common.
Sanctuary areas are places where ICE cannot transfer illegal immigrants from local and state police jails to federal custody.
Collateral arrests mean individuals, regardless of whether they were the initial target, are detained during ICE sweeps.