Dec 21, 2024
As you’ve probably heard by now, a win for the Giants before the season ends would be bad for business. The Giants (2-12) currently hold the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but they will likely end up with a better strength of schedule than the Raiders (2-12) and five teams who are sitting at 3-11. That means if the Giants manage to beat the Falcons (7-7) on Sunday in Atlanta — or the Colts or Eagles in the final two weeks — they could drop to as low as seventh in the draft order after tiebreakers. That would be far from ideal, especially to pick behind teams that also need quarterbacks like the Raiders, Titans and Browns. But you know what would also be a bad look? Losing to a Falcons team that switched quarterbacks this week, with rookie Michael Penix Jr. set to make his first start with only five NFL regular-season pass attempts under his belt. “We’re going to have to do a good job making sure we defend the deep part of the field because I think he’s going to take his chances throwing it, launching it,” Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen said. “But he’s got a really strong arm, good accuracy and I would say, specifically, on the deep ball.” Penix was one of the quarterbacks whom the Giants passed on last April in order to run it back one more time with Daniel Jones. And if the former Indiana/Washington star lights it up on Sunday, that could prove to be one of the final nails in general manager Joe Schoen’s coffin. The New York Post reported early in the week that Schoen’s and head coach Brian Daboll’s fates are not necessarily tied together. Daboll had no comment beyond his typical mantra ‘control what I can control,’ clearly avoiding the Joe Judge playbook on how to get yourself fired by not pouring any more gasoline on a centennial season that the Giants would like to forget. It’s obvious, though, that if only one member of the tandem sticks around, it will be Schoen. Saddling any new GM with a coach he didn’t pick never makes sense, but you can make the argument that retaining Schoen would shrink the Giants’ pool of head coach candidates, too. Working for a GM who would be essentially be on the hot seat going into the fourth year of a five-year contract wouldn’t be as attractive as other openings. And that didn’t exactly work out for the Giants under previous GM Dave Gettleman. Still, it’s possible that co-owners John Mara and Steve Tisch go that route if they decide that someone must pay for this season without blowing up the entire front office. It’s becoming harder and harder to justify that Schoen actually deserves to stick around. Even if you want to argue that the Giants’ primary problem is coaching, the roster construction has also been poor. Schoen selected 18 players in the 2022 and 2023 drafts, and none of them have developed into Pro Bowl talents. Two of the three first-rounders — offensive tackle Evan Neal and cornerback Deonte Banks — look like complete busts. Schoen also has the terrible Jones contract on his resume, while safety Xavier McKinney — a player Schoen made little attempt to retain — has emerged as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate with the Packers. And there could be more bad optics on the way in these last few games, including former Giant Saquon Barkley potentially chasing the NFL rushing record in Week 18. An unforeseen scenario emerged this week when the Falcons benched Kirk Cousins and moved on to their No. 8 overall pick. It was no secret that Schoen wanted a quarterback in the last draft, but once he was unable to draft up for one of the top three, his team decided to pass on other prospects like Penix, J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix to instead double down on Jones with a wide receiver. Yes, Malik Nabers has looked the part of a future NFL star once he gets a competent quarterback. It’s hard to strike out on a player universally deemed to be an elite receiver coming out of college. But again, the Giants desperately need a franchise quarterback. And if there’s any inkling that Penix could be that guy for the Falcons on Sunday? That will be another bad look for Schoen with his job on the line. Giants Gameday The Game: Giants (2-12) at Falcons (7-7), Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga., Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) The Line: Atlanta by 8.5 History: The Falcons lead the all-time series, 14-12, and have won three in a row. The Giants haven’t won since 2014, and they haven’t won in Atlanta since 2007. Key Matchups: Giants LT Jermaine Eluemunor/LG Jake Kubas vs. Falcons ILB Kaden Elliss: The left side of the Giants’ offensive line has been compromised by injury and constant reshuffling. That might be bad news when blocking a Falcons front with players like Elliss, who leads the team with 14 QB hits and four sacks. Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Falcons CB AJ Terrell: As usual, the Giants’ best chance at big plays and scoring points in this game runs through Nabers, who has four of the team’s nine receiving touchdowns. Terrell, the Falcons’ first-round pick in 2020, has two interceptions and five passes defended this year. Giants pass defense vs. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: Tight ends are often a rookie quarterback’s best friend, and the former first-round pick ranks 10th in the NFL in receiving yards (536) with 10 targets in the last two games. The Giants have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards (562) to tight ends this season. Giants OLB Brian Burns vs. Falcons LT Jake Matthews: Matthews, a 2014 first-round pick, has started 176 games for Atlanta and anchors a solid offensive line. Burns is questionable but “going in the right direction,” Brian Daboll said on Friday. The Giants need him to be a force in this game, especially with Kayvon Thibodeaux having a mediocre third season as the team’s other primary pass-rusher. Injury Report: Giants: OUT: ILB Bobby Okereke (back), LB Patrick Johnson (knee), G Aaron Stinnie (concussion); DOUBTFUL: CB Greg Stroman Jr. (shoulder/shin); QUESTIONABLE: OLB Brian Burns (ankle/neck), CB Deonte Banks (rib), RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (ankle), ILB Dyontae Johnson (ankle), G Austin Schlottman (fibula). Falcons: OUT: WR Casey Washington (concussion); QUESTIONABLE: WR KhaDarel Hodge (ribs), OLB Lorenzo Carter (groin). Giant Facts: Falcons backup linebacker Lorenzo Carter and cornerback Antonio Hamilton Sr. are former Giants players. … The Giants’ third-down conversion rate (34.69%) ranks 27th. … The Giants have allowed 44 pass plays of 20+ yards, tied for the ninth most. The Prediction: Falcons 20, Giants 13
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