Three things on my mind (the only three unrelated to all the Christmas shopping I have left) about Buffalo's first meeting with the Patriots this year... Hello, Mr. Ed! Ed Oliver was incredible last week. His best game of the year by far. Oliver was credited with 10 quarterback pressures per Next Gen Stats. That's the most in the league this season by a defensive tackle. It wasn't just the numbers. At one point, Oliver trucked center Frank Ragnow. He ran over one of the best snappers in the league like Ragnow was a tackling dummy. The question now is whether that game was a one-off or the beginning of a re-elevation for Oliver to the Avenger-like level of play we saw in long stretches last season. It's arguably the most important item to watch over the final three contests (term used loosely) of the season. Oliver's more pedestrian play over the first 13 games has been one of the top issues for this Bills defense. With Greg Rousseau developing into a much more consistent threat on the edge, Oliver putting together more games like he did against the Lions will make the Bills pass rush very much a problem. Sum Of No Fear The 3-11 Patriots don't do much of anything well, as you might expect, but they have been a headache this year when they run the ball effectively. New England has won three games and lost five by one score. In all eight of those games, they ran it for at least 100 yards. In fact, last week against Arizona was the first game all year where they rushed for 100 yards and lost by more than six points. Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are a pretty talented 1-2 punch at running back. The Patriots 4.6 yards per rush rank in the NFL's top ten and is the exact same average the Bills highly praised run game carries. This should be the priority for the Bills on Sunday even if it is not exactly a red alert level concern. Some Experience Required If the Bills shut down the New England run game, they should be fine because Sean McDermott owns rookie quarterbacks. He's won 8 of the last 10 against first year signal callers. The two losses were the 9-6 Jacksonville game against Trevor Lawrence and the Monday night wind disaster against Mac Jones and New England. The stats are as impressive as you might imagine. In those last 10 games, the Bills have forced 16 interceptions and allowed a total of four touchdown passes. Opponents are scoring a bit less than 12 points per game and Buffalo has stopped four of every five third down attempts. Drake Maye has been fairly ok as rookie QBs on a terrible roster go. His completion percentage ranks in the top ten and his success rate on dropbacks is near league average. His 359 yards rushing rank sixth best among quarterbacks this year and Maye has only played 10 games. He has more yards rushing per game than Josh Allen. Even with the Bills defense nursing a variety of injuries, this is unlikely to be the rookie quarterback that breaks out against McDermott. Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in receptions this year and Demario Douglas is the top wideout. There should not be anywhere near the threat the Bills have seen from the two offenses that combined for 79 points the last two weeks. More likely, Sunday afternoon for the Patriots rookie will be one long Maye-day. Betting Things The Bills run defense was impenetrable for the first time all season and it cost me a unit when Jahmyr Gibbs did not even sniff his rushing over. That makes me 6-8 for the year and 1.4 units in the red. We will, of course, chase the above mentioned Bills success against rookie quarterbacks this week. The easy play is at least one Maye interception, something he's done in each of his last six games (but five of those have been ONLY one interception). The odds aren't too juicy with the best number for Maye to throw at least one interception at -160, but there is a bit more juice to be squeezed. The first game for the McDermott Bills against a rookie quarterback was a 27-23 loss to Sam Darnold and the Jets. Over the last ten, the only team to exceed 21 points with a rookie at the helm was the Dolphins (Tua and Skylar Thompson in the playoff game). Those teams had Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike McDaniel. This Patriots team very much does not. Over at MGM, we can parlay one Maye interception and the Patriots to score less than 22 at odds of +120. That's going to be the play. The Pick There are some Bills fans worried about their team looking past this New England game. Buffalo certainly seemed emotionally charged and fired up for last week in Detroit. A few of the players volunteered in the locker room afterward that having a response after the Rams loss was a priority last week. It's unlikely the Bills keep that level of energy for a much lesser test in the Patriots. That doesn't mean the come down will be drastic. The Bills got a lesson two weeks ago in LA what happens when they don't show up ready to compete. There's no way that's been forgotten. In addition, the next two matchups against the Jets and in New England are about the same level of fluffy soft as this Sunday's home game with the Patriots. There really isn't any eye candy that would sway Buffalo's attention from this week. I'd be floored if the Bills lost this game. Predictions this week are just about getting the score right. One stat that should be important to SOME: the Bills have not covered the spread in eight of their last nine when being favored by ten points or more, per Pro Football Reference. Buffalo is a 14-point favorite this week. This is the first time all season Buffalo has been a double digit favorite. That means all those other teams that did not cover did not have Allen as the clear cut MVP favorite. Those other teams did have an offense playing with this much confidence. So, I'm going to pick the blowout. Give me the Bills 34-10.