The Honolulu Blueprint: 10 keys to a Lions Week 16 victory over the Bears
Dec 20, 2024
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
In this week’s Honolulu Blueprint, we re-examine the Lions Week 13’s keys to victory and explore where to make adjustments when they face the Bears in Week 16. The Detroit Lions (12-2) are back on the road in Week 16, traveling with the division to take on their rival, the Chicago Bears (4-10). Detroit won the first battle between these two teams in Week 13, and like the Lions, we’ll revisit our previous game plan to see what worked.
So, let’s take a look at Week 13’s Honolulu Blueprint, explore what was successful, what wasn’t, and any alterations that need to be made for Week 16.
Bears offensive and defensive schemes
Since the Lions played the Bears three weeks ago, Chicago fired head coach Matt Eberflus and promoted Thomas Brown to interim head coach. In the span of 17 days, Brown went from the Bears passing game coordinator to interim offensive coordinator to head coach—quite a journey. Additionally, Chris Beatty was promoted from wide receivers coach to interim offensive coordinator.
Despite the shuffling of the coaching staff, the Bears have kept pretty close to the same approach to their offensive and defensive schemes. Brown was the OC when we last broke down the Bears offense, and he’s kept his adjustments in place, while Eric Washington was the defensive coordinator and remains in that role. Therefore, there’s not much new to learn, but if you missed it previously, here is our complementary article: Lions Week 13 Preview: Breaking down Bears’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Jump on them early
Did it work?
Yes. The Lions took a 16-0 lead into the half and while they only managed to score on the second possession of the third quarter, the work they did early helped them put up enough points to win.
What’s changed?
The Bears have gotten worse in this area. In fact, the Bears have scored zero first-half points against the 49ers and Vikings in their two games since last facing Detroit.
Adjustments?
This should continue to be a priority because, while the Bears attempted a second-half comeback in Detroit, in the previous two games, the Bears have folded once they got behind. They only scored 13 points against the 49ers and just 12 vs. the Vikings.
Key 2: Run “right” into the Wide-9
Did it work?
Yes. The Lions ran the ball 33 times for 194 yards in Week 13, with 20 of those attempts and 148 of their total rushing yards coming via the “right” side of the formation.
What’s changed?
The Lions will be without David Montgomery as he recovers from an MCL injury. In the previous matchup against the Bears, Montgomery ran the ball 21 times.
Adjustments?
With Montgomery sidelined, Craig Reynolds will step into the Lions’ power-back role, but the majority of snaps will land at the feet of Jahmyr Gibbs. In Week 13, Gibbs ran nine times for 97 yards (9.7 yards per carry) and was a problem for them all day, which should favor the Lions in this weekend's game.
Key 3: Be physical at the LOS
Did it work?
Yes. As evidenced by their 194 rushing yards and only one sack taken by Jared Goff (on 35 passing attempts) the Lions' offensive line was strong.
What’s changed?
Against the Packers, the Lions’ rushing yards were down to 111 rushing yards, but still only allowed Goff to be sacked once. Against the Bills, it was much worse, as the Lions were pushed around most of the game and hardly generated much on the ground, only gaining a total of 48 rushing yards.
The Lions offensive line allowed just nine pressures the last time they played the Bears, but they allowed 12 against the Packers, and an embarrassing 26 against the Bills.
Additionally, starting left guard Graham Glasgow (knee) and center Frank Ragnow (back) are both dealing with injuries.
Adjustments?
The Lions’ offensive line, specifically the interior, needs to get back in their groove and fast. Focusing on the running game will certainly help that, as will facing off against a Bears defense that could be without their best defensive tackle in rookie Gervon Dexter.
Key 4: Take what’s available
Did it work?
Yes. Of the Lions 221 yards passing, 139 of them came after the catch. The Lions took advantage of the Bears’ single-high coverage and bend-don’t-break style of defense and got the ball into their skill players hand quickly, letting the go to work.
What’s changed?
Nothing. The Bears still run the same defensive scheme, so this should be a strategy again.
Adjustments?
Run this back, because the Lions yards after the catch (YAC) game has been rolling. After generating 139 against the Bears, they accumulated 149 vs. the Packers and 249 YAC against the Bills.
Key 5: Attack single-high coverage with deep shots
Did it work?
Not really. The Lions ended up with six explosive plays in the passing game (receptions of 16+ yards) but they were mostly generated by YAC. In total, they attempted four passes of 20+ yards, completing just one.
Here’s a look at Goff’s distribution chart from week 13, courtesy of Next Gen Stats:
What’s changed?
Nothing. The Bears still run the same defensive scheme, so this should be a strategy again.
Adjustments?
The Lions' success in the YAC game has limited their need for the deep ball, but I’d be in favor of taking a deep shot to Jameson Williams early in the game and keeping that threat in the Bears' minds.
Key 6: Ball security
Did it work?
No. With a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Bears, Gibbs fumbled inside the Bears' 5-yard line, taking points off the board and giving Chicago some confidence.
What’s changed?
The Lions have turned the ball over one time in each of the two games since playing the Bears. While Chicago did not turn the ball over vs. Detroit two weeks ago, they have both lost and forced one turnover in the games since.
Adjustments?
The Lions need to clean up their mistakes here. The turnover differential is not monumental—they’re still the eighth-best in turnover margin in the NFL—but they’ve turned the ball over at critical times in recent games, which makes things more challenging than they need to be.
Key 7: QB Contain
Did it work?
Yes and no. They did limit Caleb Williams to just four rushing attempts but he gained 39 yards. A 9.8 yards per rush is not ideal, but when they held all other Bears’ rushers to 39 yards on 11 attempts (3.5 YPA) that’s a stat line they can live with.
What’s changed?
In the two games since Week 13, the Lions held Packers’ Jordan Love to four rushes for 23 yards (5.8 YPA) but let Buffalo’s Josh Allen cook, with 11 rushes for 68 yards (6.2 YPA), including two touchdowns.
Adjustments?
With the Lions pass rush not performing of late, they really need to double down on setting the edge and creating contain. Detroit had a big issue with this last week against the Bills, so a refocused effort is in order.
Key 8: Know the RB on the field
Did it work?
Yes. D’Andre Swift was the only running back to attempt a rush in Week 13 and they held him to 3.5 yards per attempt. Some of that was by design, but this strategy was also likely impacted by Roschon Johnson getting injured on his second snap of the game.
What’s changed?
Johnson missed the previous two games recovering from injury, but he has been practicing in full this week and could return to the lineup.
Adjustments?
The Lions continue to and should prioritize stopping the run.
“We cannot let these guys run the ball down our throat. We have to shut down the run game,” Campbell said of Chicago’s offense.
With Johnson potentially back in the fold, it’s worth keeping an eye on him between the tackles, while Swift always looks to bounce it outside. The Lions linebackers need to be ready for those variances between Chicago’s backs.
Key 9: Prep for D.J. Moore’s short game YAC
Did it work?
No. Moore was heavily targeted in Week 13, as Williams looked his way a whopping 16 times, six more than in any other game this season. While Moore only caught half of his targets (eight), he registered 97 yards and a touchdown.
What’s changed?
In the two games since, Moore’s targets have dropped but his efficiency has increased. In both games, he was targeted eight times, catching six vs. the 49ers (49 yards) and all eight vs. the Vikings (46 yards). He also added three rushes against the Vikings (24 yards) after not attempting a rush vs. the 49ers or Lions.
Adjustments?
Moore continues to be the Bears’ top option on offense and the Lions will need to be prepared for the litany of ways the Bears use him.
Key 10: Prep for “quick throws”
Did it work?
Yes. In the first two games since Thomas took over play calling duties, Williams was averaging 70.5% completion percentage with 285 passing yards per game, along with a yards per attempts average of 7.3 yards. Against the Lions, those numbers were reduced to 51.3% completion percentage, 256 passing yards with 6.6 YPA.
What’s changed?
Williams’ success rate continues to decline. In the two games following Week 13, Williams is averaging 64.8% completion percentage, 162.5 passing yards per game, and 6.02 YPA.
Adjustments?
Williams looks like the physicality of his rookie season is taking its toll on him. He’s been sacked 51 times (second most allowed in the NFL) and will want to get the ball out of his hands quickly. If the Lions can take away the shorter throws, while holding up in coverage and allowing the defensive line to eventually get pressure, they’ll get Williams out of rhythm and off his game.