We're t-minus one week until Christmas, which means we are now within a reasonable forecast window to start talking about the forecast for next Wednesday. Strangely, the definition of "White Christmas" has nothing to do with snow actually falling on Christmas Day (although that can technically help satisfy the requirement). The definition dictates at least 1" of snow be on the ground Christmas morning. Heck, it could be 70° Christmas Day but if there is a leftover snowpack from a prior snowstorm, it would count as a White Christmas. Weird, huh? Historically, Rochester hits this criteria slightly better than half the time at 54%. Recent history has not been kind to us with only 1 Christmas of the last 5 having snow on the ground (2022), and that one barely qualified. The last significant Christmas morning snowpack was in 2017 when Rochester still had half a foot on the ground. While Rochester's history of White Christmas hits is highly variable, Christmas Day snow depth has been trending downward over the last century or so. This comes alongside average Christmas temperatures trending upward. WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS? There is some hope this year as the pattern later this week into the weekend will become quite cold with opportunities for snow. While the above is accurate, I'm also confident next week will feature yet another significant warming trend for the region. The play here will likely be getting enough snow by the end of the weekend to survive to Christmas morning before melting. Euro ensembles continue to paint a very close call with still having that 1" minimum on the ground by the 25th. Because there will be an element of lake effect to our snow late Friday into the weekend, it is likely leftover snowpack will be highly variable. Bottom line, I suspect if we're going to hit White Christmas criteria, it will only barely do so. Fingers crossed!