Traffic on Williston Road at the intersection with Dorset Street in South Burlington looking West on May 14, 2024. File photo by Glenn Russell/VTDiggerThe Conservation Law Foundation argued Wednesday that its staff expects Vermont to miss its first legally mandated deadline to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by between 9% and 12%. The group’s estimates marked the latest in a debate between state officials and data experts over the accuracy of the data used to assess Vermont’s compliance with its emissions deadlines. A 2020 state law, known as the Global Warming Solutions Act, set three deadlines for reducing emissions that contribute to climate change. Policies must be in place to bring emissions down to 26% below 2005 levels by 2025, to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80% below 1990 levels — or net zero — by 2050. The law also allowed lawsuits to be filed against the state if it failed to meet the deadlines. In September, the Conservation Law Foundation used that provision to sue the state, alleging that the Agency of Natural Resources was using inaccurate data to claim that Vermont is on track to meet the 2025 deadline. On Wednesday, the organization and its consultant, Asa Hopkins of the Massachusetts-based consulting firm Synapse Energy Economics, explained the group’s case to two subcommittees of the Vermont Climate Council, a body tasked with providing recommendations for meeting the state’s emissions deadlines. Conservation Law Foundation initially took aim at the modeling the state had used without providing its own estimate of how far off the state was from meeting the 2025 target. ​​Until recently, the state has used data from its annual Greenhouse Gas Inventory to predict future emissions, but this year, it switched to using a new model from the Energy Futures Group, which was created to determine how certain policies could impact Vermont’s emissions. The Conservation Law Foundation and other data experts argue the model wasn’t created to measure Vermont’s compliance with the climate law. READ MORE Conservation Law Foundation hired Hopkins to calculate the difference between the state’s previous method for counting emissions, the Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and the new modeling method. To meet the 2025 deadline, Vermont must have policies in place to hit 7.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the metric used to track emissions — down from 9.86 million metric tons in 2005. Of the 2.56 million metric tons Vermont needed to reduce, Hopkins said Wednesday that he expects the state to miss the mark by between 230,000 and 310,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent — between 9% and 12%.Elena Mihaly, vice president of Conservation Law Foundation Vermont, said 300,000 metric tons is the equivalent of “Vermonters driving more than 785 million miles in gasoline powered passenger vehicles over the course of a year.”READ MORE Meanwhile, the Agency of Natural Resources estimates that Vermont will meet the requirement with 13,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in the bank. “What’s, frankly, so alarming, is that the agency has spent the last year telling the Climate Council, leaders of our state legislature and the public that we are on track, that it does not need any new rules or updates to ensure meeting the 2025 mandate,” Mihaly said. Several members of the Agency of Natural Resources were present on the call on Wednesday. Jane Lazorchak, director of the state’s Climate Action Office, told members they are still reviewing the report. “With an update to the Climate Action Plan due July 1, we’re currently updating the business as usual model, and in accordance, we’ll consider new information and other things with respect to that,” Lazorchak told councilors. Read the story on VTDigger here: Environmental group projects Vemont will miss 2025 emissions deadline by about 10%.