Scouting report: Can Bears ruin Lions’ path to top NFC seed?
Dec 18, 2024
Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
With the Bears eliminated from playoff contention, and their head coach already fired, the only thing this team can do is play spoiler. Can they catch Detroit off guard and prevent them from winning the division? When your team has nothing left to play for, all you can do is try to ruin other people’s fun. The Detroit Lions did it back in 2022. After missing the playoffs, they had nothing to play for in Week 18 going up against the Green Bay Packers. Just because you have nothing to play for, doesn’t mean your team will give up and let the opponent win. The Lions played spoiler that night and eliminated the Packers from the playoffs, and since then this franchise has been on the up and up.
No, the Chicago Bears winning on Sunday wouldn’t mean they will dominate the NFC North in 2025. But that being said, the Bears would love nothing more than to try and ruin the Lions’ chances at winning the Super Bowl. Even though the Lions have clinched a spot, they are still fighting for a divisional crown and the one seed. Chicago, at home, will be ready to give Detroit a fight for 60 minutes and make the Lions prove why they deserve to be the top in the division, as well as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Let’s check in on the Bears in our Week 16 scouting report for the 2024 season.
Chicago Bears
2024 season thus far (4-10)
Week 1: Defeated Tennessee Titans, 24-17Week 2: Lost to Houston Texans, 19-13Week 3: Lost to Indianapolis Colts, 21-16Week 4: Defeated Los Angeles Rams, 24-18Week 5: Defeated Carolina Panthers, 36-10Week 6: Defeated Jacksonville Jaguars, 35-16Week 7: BYEWeek 8: Lost to Washington Commanders, 18-15Week 9: Lost to Arizona Cardinals, 29-9Week 10: Lost to New England Patriots, 19-3Week 11: Lost to Green Bay Packers, 20-19Week 12: Lost to Minnesota Vikings, 30-27 OTWeek 13: Lost to Detroit Lions, 23-20Week 14: Lost to San Francisco 49ers, 38-13Week 15: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 30-12
Stats:
25th in points scored, 11th in points allowed
25th in DVOA
25th in offensive DVOA (24th in pass DVOA, 24th in run DVOA)
23rd in defensive DVOA (14th pass DVOA, 31st in run DVOA)
8th in special teams DVOA
Things have changed a bit for the Bears since Thanksgiving. After the coaching debacle late in the fourth quarter that ruined Chicago’s chances at possibly tying, or winning the game, the front office decided to fire its head coach Matt Eberflus. With Eberflus out, the interim head coach is now Thomas Brown, who was then interim offensive coordinator after firing Shane Waldron. Brown is moving up the ranks quickly in Chicago, but not the way anybody wants to.
In his first game as head coach, the Bears got destroyed by the 49ers, losing by 25 on the road. In their final four games, they play three divisional opponents, giving them a chance to try and ruin everyone’s dreams of winning the division or getting a high seed in the playoffs.
It started with the Vikings on “Monday Night Football” and it couldn’t have gone any worse. Despite the defense holding Minnesota to 13 points in the first half, the offense couldn’t seem to figure things out. Quarterback Caleb Williams was under duress constantly, as according to PFF, he saw 11 pressures, nine hurries, and was sacked twice. The defense could only hold for so long before Minnesota pulled away and won 30-12.
The offense doesn’t appear to have an identity and a direction, and they aren’t as organized as they’d like to be. With the season lost, there’s still time for young players like Williams to use these reps as practice for future situations, but with how the offensive line is blocking for him, he doesn’t seem to have a chance. If this team is going to win another game this season, they need to catch their opponent on a bad day.
Injury notes
Key players ruled out: DT Andrew Billings (IR/pec), Jaquan Brisker (IR/concussion),
Key players to monitor: LG Ryan Bates (concussion), DT Gervon Dexter Sr. (knee), RB Roschon Johnson (concussion), LT Braxton Jones (concussion)
Compared to their last matchup, Chicago has more injuries heading into this showdown. Left guard Ryan Bates is still out with the concussion that caused him to miss the Thanksgiving game. Running back Roschon Johnson and starting left tackle Braxton Jones are also currently in concussion protocol. For any of them to return, they have to practice and with no appearances last week, it might be a long shot for them to play this week.
Defensive tackle Grevon Dexter Sr missed the game last week with a knee injury, and he didn’t practice either. If he can’t return in a limited fashion this week, he runs the risk of not playing either.
Biggest strength: Passing defense
Once again, the Bears secondary is doing all it can to help this team win some games. With the offense struggling to put up points due to a poor offensive line, the defense has had to step up this season for Chicago. The pass defense has stood out as the best thing about this team as a whole. They are eighth in the NFL in completion percentage allowed at 63.4 percent and are tied for second in fewest passing touchdowns allowed with 14.
You could certainly say the passing defense has better numbers because teams are gaining early leads and running on them more. Lions quarterback Jared Goff only managed 221 yards on Thanksgiving. They have had moments of limiting opposing quarterbacks from doing damage, but other parts of the team fall apart. In the loss to the Packers, they allowed 261 yards and a touchdown, but they got an interception and a blocked field goal lost them the game.
Biggest weakness: Pass blocking
Things keep getting worse for the Bears offensive line. They have allowed 58 sacks (tied for first) and 402 sack yards (most) and are down possibly two starters in the matchup against the Lions. Even with the Lions having a depleted defensive line, they still were able to sack Williams five times on Thanksgiving. This offensive line was already without Bates in the first matchup, but if the team is down Jones as well, things could get even worse for the unit.
If Jones can’t go, then third-round rookie Kiran Amegadjie would likely be his replacement. In the last game, Amegadjie filled in at left tackle for Jones and he struggled. He registered a 39.5 overall grade from PFF (he has a 40.3 overall grade for the season), while also earning a 39.3 pass blocking grade, due to giving up four pressures, including a sack that resulted in a fumble. Coleman Shelton will replace Bates if he can’t go again, and he seems to have been a possible upgrade from Bates. His pass-blocking grade is better, despite him allowing more sacks and pressures, but when you have played over 500 more snaps, things will be a bit different compared to the 68 that Bates had.
If the Bears can’t give Williams time to throw against a secondary without their top cornerback, and a room that will get tested heavily these next few weeks, then the Bears can’t win on Sunday. This offensive line must give Williams a chance to win them this game because the defense can only go so far.
Key matchup: Lions secondary vs. Bears wide receivers
No unit will be tested more on Sunday for Detroit than their secondary. The team will be going up against a solid trio of wide receivers for the Bears, and while their offensive line will need to keep Williams upright for him to pass, he’s facing a banged-up cornerback room. The Lions will have rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold as the top option for the team, and he has had a roller coaster of a season with some good and some bad. The Lions lost Carlton Davis III for six weeks, and depth cornerback Khalil Dorsey for the season with a broken ankle.
The team has Emmanuel Moseley as an option to play, as he has been a healthy inactive for the past two weeks. Ennis Rakestraw is still on IR, but if he is able to return this week, that can give the secondary a boost. If Rakestraw can’t go, the top four corners will be Arnold, Moseley, Kindle Vildor, and Amik Robertson, with nobody behind them. The team could try and move safety Brian Branch down to nickelback if they can get safety Ifeatu Melifonwu back this week from IR, giving them some options and variety on the back end.
The Lions will probably sign a free agent to help with depth, but this team can’t afford to lose anybody else on this defense. A team can only go so far with backups and free agents until things don’t work out. If the Bears are going to win, it has to take advantage of the Lion's secondary figuring out what is going on with multiple players out. With the Lions rotating guys in, communication could become difficult and that is where Chicago can strike.
Vegas line for Sunday: Lions favored by 6.5 points