Dec 17, 2024
Democratic state Rep. Brad Tabke’s legal team offered evidence from voters Tuesday that appeared to show he would have won enough votes from a batch of missing ballots to secure a narrow reelection. David Zoll, an attorney representing Tabke, brought to the stand six voters whose ballots were thrown away before they were counted in the House District 54A race. Each said they had cast a vote for the Shakopee DFLer. Following the conclusion of testimony on Tuesday, Tabke said the presentation of the votes should clear up any question about the race’s outcome. Undated courtesy photo from the 2023-24 legislative session of Minnesota Rep. Brad Tabke, DFL-Shakopee. Tabke, the assistant majority leader, represents District 54A. (Courtesy of the Minnesota House of Representatives) “We had six folks testify under oath that they voted, in fact for me, which makes it impossible for the result of this election to change, which is the crux of where we’re at on things,” Tabke said. The voters weren’t identified by name under a court’s order, but Scott County District Judge Tracy Perzel and the attorneys in the case were supplied with information to verify they were likely the people whose ballots were improperly discarded in October. One of those who affirmed that her ballot was in the pool that wasn’t counted would have added a vote for the DFLer. “I have his yard sign at my house and it was present throughout the election,” said a woman identified as “Voter No. 5” while on the stand. Tabke beat Republican Aaron Paul by 14 votes, a result verified by a hand recount and certified by the Scott County canvassing board. County officials determined as part of a postelection review that 20 ballots were unaccounted for. A preliminary investigation determined they were received by the city but never counted. They were then disposed of and it’s unlikely that they can be recovered. Testimony from the voters whose ballots were mishandled appear to cement a narrow lead for Tabke in the contest. Even if Paul could show he won the rest, it wouldn’t be enough to gain a lead. SMALL FILE — MAX. WIDTH FOR PRINT: 2.8 INCHES — Undated courtesy photo, circa Fall 2024, of Aaron Paul, Republican candidate for the District 54A Minnesota House seat in the Nov. 2024 election. (Courtesy of the candidate via Forum News Service) After the voters were done testifying, a statistician, University of Minnesota professor Aaron Rendahl, called to the stand by Tabke’s attorneys, walked the court through probabilities to demonstrate there was only a remote chance Paul could have overtaken Tabke had the missing ballots been located. Reid LeBeau, the attorney for Paul, tried to poke holes in Rendahl’s testimony by saying his analysis didn’t take into account the political behavioral patterns of people who vote early and those who vote on Election Day. He called on political science professor Thomas Brunell, of the University of Texas at Dallas, to raise doubts about statistical probabilities accounting for voters’ decisions. “All 20 of those votes could be Republican, all 20 could be Democratic,” Brunell said. “We don’t know and just sort of imputing missing votes just sort of strikes me as inconsistent with free and fair elections.” Testimony in the trial concluded around midday and the judge set filing deadlines for the attorneys involved before the year’s end. The six voters whose ballots were thrown away before they were counted said they were frustrated and disappointed at learning that their ballots hadn’t been counted. “Frankly, I feel like I’ve been robbed,” a person who voted for Paul, identified as “Voter No. 17,” told the court Monday. “It makes me question the integrity of our voting system.” Paul challenged the election result over the missing ballots and said there should be a new election to restore voters’ faith in the system. A change in the election result in Paul’s favor could swing control of the House to Republicans — either through a temporary vacancy or a Paul win of some fashion. As it stands, the chamber is set to begin the 2025 legislative session in a 67-67 tie. But that could change before lawmakers return to St. Paul on Jan. 14. Aside from the case in Scott County, there is another in Ramsey County surrounding a Roseville-area district where the residency of DFL Rep.-elect Curtis Johnson has been challenged. Johnson is asking the Supreme Court to intervene and declare the challenge brought by the Republican District 40B candidate, Paul Wikstrom, invalid due to the timing of his lawsuit. The Legislature has the final say on the qualification of its members. There could be a challenge to the seating of Johnson and Tabke, even if their election wins stand up in court. If it comes to that, the lawmakers would not be able to vote on their own standing, according to a widely read interpretation of state law. County election officials, the mayor of Shakopee and Scott County commissioners who participated in the election canvassing process also testified in the trial on Monday. Related Articles Elections | Trial begins in disputed Minnesota House election where 20 absentee ballots were lost Elections | Minnesota Republicans sue to force election rerun in tight House race where 20 ballots are missing Elections | DFL House candidate who won Roseville-area House seat seeks dismissal of residency challenge Elections | Scott County says 20 missing absentee ballots in tight House election were likely discarded, destroyed Elections | In push to break tie with House DFL, Republicans say they’ll challenge election in southwest metro
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