How well did the Experimental Cone of Uncertainty perform during the 2024 hurricane season?
Dec 17, 2024
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- The Cone of Uncertainty is the graphic meteorologists use to show the possible track of a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center provides emergency management officials, local and state governments, media outlets, and the public with updates every six hours during the lifecycle of a hurricane or tropical storm and tropical depression.
The true meaning of the Cone of Uncertainty
If the hurricane is intense enough, then the Cone is updated every two or three hours. The cone looks at tropical weather systems in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Eastern Pacific, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Prior to the start of the 2024 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center created what was hoped to be a more efficient Cone, the "Experimental Cone of Uncertainty." We spoke with the NHC about that before the start of the tropical weather system.
We learned that the Experimental Cone would not be used during the entire season but would start somewhere around August 15. Information the experimental cone dispensed included inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings.
Knowing the inland watches and warnings can help communicate the inland wind risk. What the NHC did not want to do was to complicate things by providing too many layers or too much data.
KXAN Meteorologist Rich Segal spoke with the Director of the National Hurricane Center, Dr. Michael Brennan.
Dr. Brennan talked about the need for the updated cone and what went into its creation. More importantly, he talked about its performance during major hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Public feedback was solicited during and at the end of the hurricane season. Dr. Brennan addressed it during the interview.
Watch the full interview in the video player at the top of this story.