How well the Experimental Cone of Uncertainty performed
Dec 17, 2024
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- The Cone of Uncertainty is the graphic meteorologists use to show the possible track of a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center provides emergency management officials, local and state governments, media outlets, and the public with updates every six hours during the lifecycle of a hurricane or tropical storm and tropical depression.
If the hurricane is intense enough, then the Cone is updated every two or three hours. The cone looks at these tropical weather systems in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.
Prior to the start of the 2024 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center created what was hoped to be a more efficient Cone. We spoke with the NHC about that before the start of tropical weather season.
We learned the Experimental Cone would not be used during the entire season but would start somewhere around Aug. 15. Information the experimental cone would dispense included inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings.
Knowing the inland watches and warnings would assist in communicating the inland wind risk. What the NHC did not want to do was to complicate things by providing too many layers or data.
KXAN Meteorologist Rich Segal spoke with National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan.
Brennan speaks about the need for the updated cone and what went into its creation. More important than that is his discussion about the performance during major hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Public feedback was solicited during and at the end of the season. Brennan addresses this during the interview.