Trump is revving up his tariff war — here’s what you need to know
Dec 17, 2024
The prospect of Donald Trump assuming the presidency on Jan. 20 is enough to frighten America’s friends around the world. It’s not just that he’s vowed to impose punitive tariffs on America’s three biggest trading partners — 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on imports from China — for failing to stop the flow of illegal immigrants and narcotics into the U.S. He’s also sure to demand that America’s allies, notably Japan and South Korea, pay far more for the cost of having U.S. troops and bases while courting his old friend, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, who insists on nothing less than withdrawal of U.S. forces from the South while still not giving up his nukes.
And Trump is talking about a vast increase worldwide in the tariffs imposed on most products, including eventually 60 percent on everything from China.
The Trump tariff on South Korea will not be nearly as horrendous, but a levy of 10 percent could undermine the “spirit of Camp David” at which President Biden got the leaders of South Korea and Japan to bury their differences and work against their mutual enemies.
“Numbers come and go with Trump,” his one-time national security adviser, John Bolton, remarked in response to my question in a Zoom conversation staged by the Institute for Corean-American Studies. (They adopt an old-fashioned way of spelling Korea.) “He’s throwing a lot of dust in the air. He’s throwing firecrackers.”
Trump, however, doubled down, declaring, “I’m a big believer in tariffs,” when asked by Kristen Welker on NBC’s “Meet the Press” if he could be sure tariffs wouldn’t bring about increases in prices. “I can’t guarantee anything,” he said, but he had no doubts about the wonders of levying far more on imports.
“I think tariffs are the most beautiful word,” he responded. “I think they’re beautiful. It’s going to make us rich. We’re subsidizing Canada to the tune over $100 billion a year. We’re subsidizing Mexico for almost $300 billion. We shouldn’t be — why are we subsidizing these countries?”
While focusing on ways to achieve an equitable commercial relationship in which all America’s East Asian trading partners — China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan — can no longer enjoy mammoth trade surpluses with the U.S., Trump is reversing the concept of “free trade” that has infused American policy since Roosevelt at the height of the Great Depression, rammed through the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act 90 years ago. Michael Beeman, author of the newly published “Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond,” has described the radical shift in American policy that is already under way — and sure to become much sharper under President Trump.
“We’re walking out on trade agreements, on developing countries,” said Beeman, a visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific American Resource Center, in a talk that I attended at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington. “It’s a bit of a law of the jungle.”
Beeman, who previously served as assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperative forum, argues the last two American administrations have simply “walked out” on “most favored nation” agreements, ending an era dating from the 1930s in which free trade was a principle of American diplomacy and commerce despite notable exceptions and differences. Having led the difficult process of renegotiating free trade agreements between the U.S. and Korea, and also between the U.S. and Japan, he looks with concern on what he sees as a seismic shift driven by “political polarization” in the United States.
“The focus on tariffs” is leading to “a reset on trade with the world,” he believes. “This is the new economic philosophy.”
Trump’s views on what to do about America’s huge trade and budget deficits go far beyond just raising tariffs. He’s also opposed to the Semiconductor Support Act, widely known as the CHIPS and Science Act — one of Biden’s proudest achievements. Under this deal, the U.S. would subsidize construction by foreign companies of immense semiconductor manufacturing facilities. For instance, the U.S. has agreed to cover $6.6 billion of the cost of construction of three plants in Arizona by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest chip-maker. The outgoing commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, has called the subsidy “one of the most important investments we can make as a country to advance our economic and national security.”
Biden, in the wake of Trump’s election victory, was eager to wrap up the deal with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company before Trump could reject it. The president-elect has made plain what he thinks of the CHIPS Act, loudly criticizing Biden for paying foreign companies that compete with American manufacturers for global markets. In one interview, he asked, “How stupid are we?” The Taiwanese company, he said, “took our chip business from us.”
It’s not clear, as president, whether he can undermine this subsidy, perhaps forcing dissolution of the deal. Construction of the Arizona plants has not yet begun, but it’s way too late for Samsung Electronics, the world’s second-biggest chipmaker. Samsung, building a new plant in Texas thanks in part to a $6.4 billion subsidy, is too far into the project to back out easily if Trump manages to withhold the money.
Trump is just as determined to reverse other Biden-era initiatives, including the tax credits for buying electric vehicles — $7,500 for new models and $4,000 for used or “pre-owned.” The idea is that electric vehicles are needed in the battle against climate change and pollution by the gasoline-fueled vehicles that still dominate the market. Trump has called the bill one major element in the “green new scam” that only perpetrates what he sees as the “hoax” of the climate change movement. Slashing tax credits, thereby vastly reducing the sales of electric vehicles, would also cut deeply into the sales of the batteries needed to make them run. Foreign manufacturers, dominating battery sales, would suffer.
The Sierra Club, dedicated to protecting the environment, put the consequences of doing away with the EV tax credit in harsh terms. Abolition of the credit “would backfire on Americans, robbing people of their choice to buy electric vehicles that are good for our economy, the climate, and clean air,” said Katherine Garcia, director of the Sierra Club’s Clean Transportation for All campaign.
Interestingly, the world’s richest man, Trump’s new pal Elon Musk, is for doing away with the Inflation Reduction Act, including tax credits. His logic is simple: While Tesla vehicles would be more costly, Tesla’s competitors would suffer more. Some would not survive. Musk would grow richer as Tesla produced ever more vehicles for those who could afford them, while also perfecting driverless models that may fill the world’s roads and markets many years from now.
At home and abroad, Trump promises to alter established patterns. Foreign countries, including America’s friends and foes, will fight increased tariffs, undoubtedly raising their own tariffs, possibly leading to much more serious conflicts. Much will depend on the advice and actions of Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, the chief of a prominent Wall Street firm who’s advised Trump on economic and trade policy — including tax cuts for wealthy Americans. At home, the middle class, including millions who voted for Trump, will writhe under the end to tax subsidies while the rich get richer and hostility deepens among nations vowing revenge from behind tariff walls.
Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years, focusing much of his career on conflict in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and Chicago Tribune. He is currently a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea, and is the author of several books about Asian affairs.