How much dreaming it may take for Columbus to have a white Christmas
Dec 17, 2024
Central Ohio Weather and Radar
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- We are roughly a week away from the holiday travel days ahead of Christmas next Wednesday and, depending on when and if you are travelling for the holiday, you might encounter a bit of warming weather ahead of the holiday.
The weekend leading up to Christmas week is looking chilly, including for Ohio State's home playoff game Saturday night. Wind chills for the game could end up being in the teens. Home field advantage: check!
But the high that will be over us for the weekend will shift to the east heading into Christmas week. This should provide us with dry weather for Monday, with improving temperatures getting closer to the upper 30s to near 40. On Tuesday for Christmas Eve, it will be a bit warmer, with temps trending toward the middle 40s.
What does Christmas normally look like in Columbus?
To start, a white Christmas is not the norm in Columbus. Depending on your personal definition, measurable snow falling on Christmas Day, or snow on the ground to start the day, we only end up around either occurring around one quarter of the time.
Since record keeping started back in the mid 1880s, we have had measurable snowfall (0.1" or greater) 28% of the time falling on Christmas. Snowfalls at 1" or greater on Christmas occur about 7% of the time. We have had 3" or greater Christmas day snowfalls only three times. More than half a foot happened only once, when Ohio's own Benjamin Harrison was president, in 1890: 7" dropped that day.
If you consider it a white Christmas when snow is on the ground on Christmas Day, that also happens almost exactly a quarter of the time. Thirteen percent of all Christmas Days have had 3" or more snow on the ground, and in 1960 we had a record 9" on the ground. It was melting that day, as we had a high of 41° that afternoon. The week before Christmas had almost 10" of fresh snow that fell on top of the couple of inches of base that were already there. At almost a foot and a half of snow that December, 1960 was our snowiest December.
It should be noted that accurate snow depth records were only kept back to when our reporting was moved out to the airport in 1948. Temperature-wise, the averages are 36.6° for the high, and 23.7° for the low. Our records on Christmas are 64° in 1893, and -12° in 1983. What is wild though, is when looking at the warmest and coldest days (based on average temp, highs and lows) they occurred only 1 year apart!
In 1982, the high temp reached 63°, but the low temp only hit 55°, which was a record. The average temperature for the day was an incredible 59°, roughly 29° above normal. Only a year later in 1983, the high was only 1°, the low was -12°. The average temp was -6°, roughly 36° below normal for Christmas. It was also a shocking 65° colder than exactly a year ago!!!
12/25 snowfall amount% of times>= 0.1"28%>= 1.0"7%>= 3.0"2%>= 6.0"1%* Percentage of Christmas Days with amount of snow since 1884
12/25 snowfall depth% of times>= 1.0"26%>= 3.0"13%>= 6.0"1%* Percentage Christmas Days with snowfall depth on ground since 1948
Green outlook for Christmas in Central Ohio
This year will likely be another green Christmas as temps will be too warm ahead of, and on the actual holiday for us to have a white Christmas. Unlike 2022, when we had a brutal cold snap a couple of days before Christmas with almost 5" of snow, alongside wind chills at -20 to -30 degrees, we will not be graced with that weather this year.
In fact, looking at some of the longer range forecast models, they are all hinting in the direction of warmer weather, with high temps in the 40s to lower 50s on Christmas Wednesday.
The models range in speed with some precipitation coming through our area. The Canadian model is the quickest, dropping moisture through on Christmas Eve, as rain, and then drying us out for Wednesday with highs in the middle 40s.
Canadian Forecast Model - Temperatures early afternoon Christmas Day
The American model was the quickest to introduce warmer air for next Wednesday but still has some precipitation working through in the early morning hours on Wednesday, but then drying us out to highs back near 50 in the afternoon.
American (GFS) Forecast Model - Rain early Christmas morning (just after midnight)
The European Forecast Model has been a little slower than the others, but is also pushing the colder air further away, and keeping us warmer, and wetter during the morning hours on Christmas. Eventually, it even takes afternoon temps back into the lower 40s in our area.
European Forecast Model - Christmas morning near sunrise
As was the case in 2022, we do not always need snow on Christmas to have a white Christmas. However, you do need snow before, and cold temps to keep that snow around, both appear to be highly unlikely, even with sub-freezing temps expected, even for highs the weekend before the holiday.
Longer range, it does appear above normal temps will be the norm to close out the year. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center confirms this. It shows much better chances of above normal temps.
The longer range models are not really pointing to a storm track that will bring a big snowfall through our area before 2025 arrives. Storm Team 4 will continue to track the forecast for the holidays, from the days before and after Christmas and New Year's Day as well.