Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images Breaking down the three key matchups from Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions with a deep statistical dive. The Detroit Lions are looking to stake their claim as the winningest regular season team in franchise history with 13 wins and extend their current winning streak to 12 games. All that is standing in the way is the fire-breathing, rocket launcher-armed, centaurian demi-god at quarterback in Josh Allen. Allen is fresh off an NFL history first with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a game. His Buffalo Bills, in what was a supposed down year, look like the class of the AFC and is a team this Lions regime knows all too well. Back on Thanksgiving Day 2022, the 4-6 Lions, riding a three-game winning streak, entered their first heavyweight fight and went blow-for-blow with the 7-3 Bills (finished 13-3). Most Lions fans remember Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the Lions offense conducted a two-minute drive to set-up a Michael Badgley field goal to tie the game with less than 30 seconds remaining. Unfortunately, that was more than enough time for that mystical creature Allen to set-up a game-winning Tyler Bass 45-yard field goal. From overtime optimism to crushed defeat in a few seconds of game clock. After that game, Dan Campbell said “it should sting that we lost that game. Because we had our opportunities” and that “I don’t feel like this was a step back. I still feel we’re moving forward.” In the moment, the loss was crushing. In reality, it was the most meaningful loss of the Campbell-Holmes regime. The scrappy 2022 Lions proved they could hang with the big dogs, they just needed to take the next step in beating them. Since that loss, the Lions are 31-8, the second-best record in football. On Sunday, they can further prove they are the most powerful juggernaut in the NFL. Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro. Secret formula The two most high-powered offenses in the NFL square off in the friendly confines of Ford Field on Sunday with the Lions averaging 32.1 points/game (first) and the Bills averaging 30.5 points/game (second). At those current rates, those would be the two highest scoring offenses in a single season since 2020. The current projected total for the game is 54.5, which is the highest total for any game this season. However, totals of 50 or more points in the past three seasons (58 such games), have only had the over hit 21 times (36% of the time). I’ve got a feeling Dan Campbell and Lions’ game plan might lead to a lower scoring game than anticipated. The Lions’ objective will to be ball hogs. To play keep away from Allen and limit his possessions. The Bills are already 22nd in the NFL averaging only 29:40 time of possession/game. In the Bills’ three losses, they’re averaging almost four minutes less even at 25:45 in time of possession/game. In those losses, the Bills have only averaged 24 points/game, including two games at or below 20 points. Meanwhile, the Lions are third in the NFL averaging 32:00 in time of possession. For this matchup, it’s going to take at least 35 minutes with the rock in their possession. Limiting Bills possessions and the number of sustained drives is key to not allowing Allen to get hot and take over the game. In the Bills’ recent Week 14 loss, the Rams provided the Lions with a blueprint to build off of for attacking the Bills defense. The Rams totaled 457 total yards, averaging 6.3 yards/play, by continually breaking the Bills’ outside containment with runs, including to Puka Nacua, then bashing up the middle. That helped them be efficient with play action passing early. The Rams kept Matthew Stafford clean and eventually forced the Bills out of their zone. Per FTN, the Bills played man coverage on 46.7% of dropbacks (most in a game this year), played single-high coverage on 70% of dropbacks (most), and blitzed on 26.7% of dropbacks (fifth most). The Lions dominating time of possession, particularly late in the game when you have to kill the boogie man, is a major component to success in Week 15. Expect Dan Campbell to remain aggressive on manageable fourth downs (3-for-3 back in 2022 matchup). Playing keep away The Lions will minimize Allen’s opportunities to mutate by playing to their own superpower strength: a diverse run game, with their own two-headed monster in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and a wrecking crew upfront in the Detroit People Movers. Exerting their will on the Bills defense will be a key to victory. After struggling to run the ball for the majority of the past two games, the Lions’ great siege beasts are in store for a prideful get-right game against the Bills. In the Bills’ last five games, their run defense has allowed 638 rushing yards on 139 carries for 4.6 yards/carry. In those games, the Bills allowed 24.4 points/game (above their eighth-best 20.6 points/game on the season). Overall, the Bills defense has more than respectable metrics with the sixth best EPA/rush (-0.12), the best stuff rate in the NFL (23.6%), and the 10th best success rate (38.6%). That is mightily impressive considering they have the sixth-highest light box rate (51.5%) and the lowest stacked box rate in the NFL (7.1%) However, this is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and in those last five games they have less impressive numbers. Since Week 9, the Bills maintained top 10 level in EPA/rush and stuff rate but they are only 17th in success rate (41.0%). Additionally, in that span (p+er FTN), the Bills have the worst rate in avoided tackles (29.5%), are 28th in yards after contact (2.8), are 29th in open field yards/carry (2.2), and are 28th in explosive run rate (12.9%). Linebacker Matt Milano, in his return from injury, has not hit the ground running but he is far from the only weak link in the Bills front seven. That includes a surprising dip in play from Ed Oliver in the middle. Oliver has 43.9 PFF run defense grade (109th/142 DTs) and a 27.5 tackle grade (139th). Fellow starting defensive tackle, DaQuan Jones, isn’t far behind with a 51.8 (80th) and a 28.7 tackle grade (127th). I fully expect the Lions to try to gash the Bills up the middle with inside gap-scheme runs. Frank Ragnow might live in the second level of the defense and Milano and the Bills linebackers might spend the afternoon with ice skates strapped to their feet or on their asses. Just Joshin’ around Josh Allen is a defensive coordinator’s nightmare on the money downs. His ability to will his team to improbable conversions on third downs and fourth downs is one of his many super powers. He’s also strong once the Bills get into the red zone, averaging a touchdown on 68.52% of trips (fifth). The Bills convert 43.42% of third downs (eighth) including 55.56% in the last three games (first). They also average +0.13 EPA/play (fifth) on third down. On fourth down, they convert a league-leading 88.67% of the time with a +1.99 EPA/play (second). Even when defenses do well getting Allen behind the sticks, jhe succeeds. As a passer on third-and-long (per FTN), Allen leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (7), is fifth in passer rating (108.5), second in EPA/dropback (0.69), second in DVOA (100.55), and ninth in success rate (42.5%). When pressured on third-and-long, Allen is slightly worse, but still top 10 in most metrics. The Lions defense, with the return of Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal, and DJ Reader, will hopefully prevent Allen from sitting back comfortably in the pocket. As a runner on third-and-long, Allen has eight carries for 72 rushing yards, a 62.5% success rate (seventh), three 10+ yard runs, and a 1.19 EPA/rush (sixth). On fourth down, he’s even more dangerous on the ground. Allen leads the NFL in rushing yards (47) and success rate (100%). The Lions will need to corral Allen in and not extend drives with back-breaking runs. That will require the pass rush crushing the pocket and sticking him in a Houdini-like inescapable suit. But the coverage unit will also have to have active eyes on him despite heavy playing man coverage. It may even require a potential spy in the second level. This is a big stage for Jack Campbell and Brian Branch to show off their versatility and their ability to swarm to the ball. Like many matchups in this potential Super Bowl preview, money downs will be strength on strength. The Lions defense leads the NFL in third down conversion rate (31.25%) and is second in fourth down conversion rate (35%). Josh Allen and the Bills offense, on the Ford Field fast track, will be Aaron Glenn’s toughest challenge to date and is exactly what they need in preparation of making a deep playoff run this year.