Three big thoughts as the Bills get ready to play The Game Of The Year... Part 2... Rush Can't Gush No matter how many different ways you asked the Bills defensive players about the Lions offense, they always kept coming back to stopping the run game. This is no disrespect to Jared Goff and the receivers. The Bills know exactly where all the success in Detroit begins. The Lions are fourth overall in total rush yards and are one of two teams that have yet to be held under 100 yards in a game (Eagles are the other). Detroit uses two excellent backs and you can quickly tell which they like better by how they split the touches--both have exactly 212 rushes and receptions combined. David Montgomery is the bigger, stronger, between the tackles runner. Jahmyr Gibbs is the more prototypical receiver, but both guys can do whatever. Montgomery's 32 receptions trail Gibbs by only two. The Bills aren't going to stop this duo. Not when the Lions are getting starting tackle Taylor Decker back after he missed a couple games with an injury. The goal here for Buffalo is not to get steamrolled. This game can't look it did in Baltmore. Let Allen Attack The Lions weakness is their pass defense. Sort of. Detroit is 23rd in passing yards allowed. Some of that is because their opponents are constantly trailing. Often by quite a lot. The Lions do rank in the top ten when it comes to passing yards and net passing yards allowed per attempt. I said it was a weakness. I didn't say it had to be all that weak. Where the Lions have had issues is keeping their hands off receivers. No team has committed more pass interference penalties than the Lions 17 through 13 games. Detroit also is tied for the most defensive holding and illegal contact penalties combined with nine. Detroit's run defense has been pretty tough all year. They are ninth in yards allowed per carry and that's with a massive amount of defensive line injuries. A few of which are healing up this week. The Bills also have not run it great lately against anyone not trying to make tackles in a few inches of snow. The play this week is to attack down the field early and often. The Bills have Josh Allen. Unleash the monster. Mila-No Shortcuts All-Pro Matt Milano would be a huge help this week, but current Matt Milano has looked a ways from that level just two games into his return. Both mentally and physically. That should not be a surprise. While Milano's most recent injury was a torn bicep, he is still also playing his first few games since a serious leg injury last season. As the Bills have seen first hand with Tre White and Von Miller, it can take a while for a player to fully return to form. Even an elite one like Milano. White and Miller were much lesser players in their first seasons after the major leg injury. Milano's ascent back to the elite level he was at before the injury is likely to be just as gradual. Betting Things Back in the win column last week after Kyren Williams went over 66.5 yards rushing relatively comfortably with 87. I'm now 6-7 for the year. Still in the red, but only down 0.4 units. Going right back to the well with an opponent rushing over. The Gibbs line is 66.5 yards on FanDuel. Exact same number and odds as the Williams line last week (-113). Just like Williams, Gibbs has been pretty consistent beating that number during the season. He's had at least 67 yards rushing in 9 of 13 games and he's only been under 60 yards twice. There's a little more danger here than with Williams because Montgomery is capable of dominating touches much more than a Blake Corum. As with last week, the Bills leaky run D makes this play more enticing. The Montgomery line is also on the table (54.5 yards), but he's been more of a 50-50 shot this year to top that. I also like the over on Allen passing attempts (34.5). He's put the ball in the air at least 35 times in four of the last five games. Any TD bet involving Gibbs, Montgomery, Allen and even James Cook is probably a smart one. The Pick The Lions are well known for their ability to stack points, their ferocious run game and their ferociously aggressive head coach, but they are also so good at so many little things. Detroit has the best combined kick return game in the NFL (4th best on punt returns, 2nd best on kicks). They have the second most accurate kicker. They have the second best punt game. They are top 6 in converting and stopping 3rd downs and red zone possessions. Remember that pass defense I tried to pawn off as a "weakness"? No team has allowed less that the 11 TD passes the Lions have given up. They are also getting healthy. The offensive line will be whole again, as mentioned above. The defense has weathered a bevy of injuries, but should be getting a pair of defensive ends back this week plus standout tackle D.J. Reader. Buffalo is returning Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman on offense this week and likely Dawuane Smoot on defense. All will help, but none is a great needle mover. On the flip side, Rasul Douglas will sit with a knee injury and the defense could also be out both starting safeties. Sweeping changes in the secondary to face the best offense in the game is no bueno. And that's after a week where the Bills did not even have a full practice due to the weather. The best player on the field will be wearing 17 in white and blue. Playing at an MVP level, Josh Allen is going to give the Bills a good chance in every single game. It would be zero surprise if Allen makes a number of high level throws, grabs chunks of scramble yards against a defense that plays heavy man coverage and the defense snags a turnover or two to steal this game. However, the Lions are home for a third straight week. They are playing on extra rest after a second consecutive Thursday game. They are the measurably better team in a number of areas, which is surprising against a pretty darn good 10-3 Bills team. And they might be more desperate to win when the Vikings breathing down their neck in the division. There are too many pieces of evidence pointing Detroit's way to go against them. So, I won't. Give me the Lions 37-30.