A mix of clouds and some sunshine is starting our cold morning here in KC as temperatures expectedly tanked overnight into the teens again are greeting our Friday morning. The good news is that temperatures, especially this afternoon and overnight will warm nicely into the 40° range (or warmer overnight), so milder air to the south will be coming into the region. The bad news is that this transition is going to take a bit of time today, and while there isn't any low level moisture yet...that will change this afternoon as the low levels start to saturate. What's interesting is that the depth of that moisture is only about 5,000 feet thick for awhile. In other words it remains dryer below about 2000 feet till this evening and it's dry about 7000-8000 feet so that means that whatever falls will be very light initially. The issue is what type of precip falls while we do a delicate dance between temperatures moderating, the surfaces holding on to the coldness, and perhaps some mist or drizzle falling into that scenario. The sunshine that's coming in briefly this morning will help the pavement locally...but for areas to the north of KC...north of KCI towards the IA border, that warm up will be slower and that could lead to some light glazing into the evening. A winter weather advisory is in effect from St Joe northwards. Icier conditions are expected towards and into Iowa where the ice for the Hawkeye state will be a bigger issue. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Forecast: Today: Increasing low clouds this afternoon with some patches of drizzle or mist developing around the region, especially from the State Line westwards. There may be some freezing precip north of the Metro later this afternoon. Pay attention to the changing conditions, especially after 3PM or so. Highs climb into the 35-40° range later today, warmer south and colder north. Tonight: All convert over the liquid rain with temperatures steady or climbing into the 40s by daybreak. Tomorrow: Rain continues at times into the mid afternoon. Temperatures well into the 40s. Sunday: Nicer and milder with highs into the mid 50s ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Discussion: Interesting set up for today...as we start so cold, but yet as I type this there is sunshine out there that is going to help us out here in the Metro. We're on the back edge of some pretty cold air, and also close to some pretty warm air. Yesterday southern MO topped off at 60°...so it's close and some of it will creep northwards today. The weather map this morning shows a warm/stationary front to the south of the area...this will gradually progress northwards today and especially tonight. We remain for now on the cold side of this with easterly winds. By tonight though this "less cold" air will come northwards and we should see temperatures locally warm into the 40-45° range from KC southwards towards Midnight. The freezing line will be up towards and just south of the IA border by then. This is part of the issue because that freezing line (give or take a couple of degrees) may be the delineator between liquid and frozen drizzle/rain. This will work northwards later today and tonight. For the Metro...the sunshine we're seeing is welcome...this will tend to warm the pavement this morning and IF we can get that pavement into the mid 30s or upper 30s during the middle of the afternoon we shouldn't have an issue should precip gradually develop after 2-4PM or so. Areas south of the Metro are fine with damp roads likely. I think the majority of the Metro should be OK as well. Areas that will be watched are more towards the north...let's say from the KCI area up towards St Joe...and then north from there. Iowa is going to have bigger issues with ice compared to MO. Here is the Winter Weather Advisory...in the counties in purple. Last night I mentioned that I thought a few more counties would be added south of the original area outlined...and that indeed happened. The St Joe area was added and they're on the edge of this potential. What's interesting is that local terrain may play a role in this for an hour or two. There are various valleys up along the MO River towards NE KS and NW MO...areas where cold air has a tendency to hang on a bit more compared to other areas a bit higher in elevation. I'm thinking of Weston and elsewhere towards and north of 36 highway. The more hilly areas where it's possible it could be a notch or two warmer on top of the hills than at the bottom of the hills where the cold air drains and is trapped to some degree. It could add a wrinkle to some areas up there should the precip get going a bit faster this afternoon. Tonight though all areas will be rain, and we should see 1/10" to 1/3" or so, more farther east and the rain may continue off and on into tomorrow afternoon as a system in the west moves right through the area. We should continue to warm up overnight and through about lunch tomorrow...45-50° or so before starting to trail off later tomorrow. The good news is that a rapid return to south winds on Sunday should send highs up into the mid 50s...so Sunday looks great here. In Cleveland it will be a cold rain with temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40° for the game. We remain mild into Monday and Tuesday, at least above average before we cool off again on Wednesday before we go through the ups and downs again into Christmas week. There are still no signs of snow of any consequence through Christmas Day. Speaking of snow...the Lake Effect was raging yesterday in parts of MI and NY...where feet of snow fell. The Buffalo Bills had to cancel practice because of all the snow on Orchard Park. Look at some of these totals in western NY... and in northern Michigan Speaking of Gaylord, MI...which is near and dear to my heart...they've had 81" of snow SINCE Thanksgiving! Incredible lake effect for them...that's about 7 FEET in less than 3 weeks! OK that's it for today...have a great weekend and Go Chiefs! The feature photo is from Brian Joe