Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Our Lions vs. Bills statistical breakdown, preview, and score prediction. It’s On Paper, Week 15. The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills face off this week in what is almost certainly the most interesting game of Week 15. Some are calling it a Super Bowl preview. Some are calling it a battle between two MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Regardless of how you want to frame it, it should be a treat for those in attendance at Ford Field. But who has the advantage? Let’s break it all down in our Lions vs. Bills preview, statistical breakdown, and score prediction. It’s On Paper time. Lions pass offense (10th in DVOA) vs. Bills pass defense (11th) The Lions pass offense remains top 10 in DVOA, but bordering on top-five in pretty much every other important metric: Third in yards per attempt (8.5) Second in passer rating (110.4) First in completion percentage (72.5) Third in dropback EPA (0.240) First in dropback success rate (52.7%) As I’ve said before, the only statistic the Lions seem to be uncharacteristically “normal” at is pass protection. Detroit is 10th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (64%), 17th in PFF pass block grade (70.4), 17th in pressure rate allowed (33.8%), and 12th in sack rate (6.0%). The question that follows is: does it matter? If they’re posting top-five numbers in just about every efficiency metric, does it matter if their pass protection is average? Detroit’s pass pro should see a bit of a boost this week anyway, with left tackle Taylor Decker expected to return to the lineup this week. The Bills pass defense has been pretty darn solid all season. They’ve allowed over 250 net yards in just three games this season, and only three opponents have managed a passer rating over 100 against Buffalo. But a closer examination of their opponents reveals an uninspiring list of passing offenses. They have only played a single game against a team ranked in the top-10 in passer rating (Ravens). They’ve played four games against bottom-10 pass offense. The defense is even more questionable when you look at some of the other important metrics: 8th in yards per attempt (6.9) 13th in passer rating (89.9) 28th in completion percentage (69.1) 14th in dropback EPA (0.059) 23rd in dropback success rate (47.9%) In terms of pass rush, it’s a mixed bag. They rank 15th in pass rush win rate (40%), sixth in PFF grade (75.7), but just 19th in pressure rate (32.5%) and 21st in sack rate (6.2%). They only blitz 18.2% of the time (30th), so they often rely on their front four to generate pressure, and that has obviously been an inconsistent strategy. It’s also worth noting the Bills are a bit banged up in the secondary. Starting cornerback Rasul Douglas has missed both practices this week, while both starting safeties (Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin) missed Thursday’s walkthrough. Player to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Bills defense doesn’t give up a ton over the top, but they are vulnerable in the short and intermediate areas. Per NFL Pro, they rank 28th in passes under 10 air yards—where St. Brown often does the majority of his work. Buffalo also ranks 27th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers and 29th against No. 2. Advantage: Lions +2. I actually think this is a pretty favorable matchup for the Lions. The Bills are a defense that makes you dink and dunk your way down the field, but that is something that Jared Goff does well. He doesn’t get impatient and force the ball downfield, and he has a receiving corps that is excellent in the short-to-intermediate part of the field. Plus, if the Bills struggle to pressure Goff, he’s going to tear them apart. Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Bills run defense (8th) Is it time to admit that the Lions’ running game is in a bit of a slump? Of course, everything is relative—they still have at least 100 yards in every game this season—but they’ve been pretty ordinary when it comes to efficiency. In the past five weeks, Detroit ranks: 7th in EPA (-0.036) 4th in success rate (45.3%) 17th in yards per carry (4.2) Like I said, it’s relative. They haven’t been bad. Just not up to their own lofty standards. Still, for the season, Detroit’s run game has been impeccable: 5th in EPA (0.019) 3rd in success rate (44.9%) 8th in YPC (4.6) 4th in stuffed rate (13.7%) And, again, it’s worth pointing out just how dominant the offensive line has been: first in adjusted line yards, eighth in yards before contact per rush, and t-third in run blocking PFF grade. So... speaking of being in a slump. The Bills run defense has allowed over 120 rushing yards in four of their last five games, and over 4.5 yards per carry in four of five, as well. Over that span, the Bills rank 15th in run defense EPA and 19th in success rate. For the season, they’re closer to a top-10 unit. While they rank 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.7), they’re eighth in both rush EPA and success rate (37.3%). That tells me they’re occasionally giving up big plays (sixth most 10+ yard rushes), but also capable of creating big defensive plays (first in stuffed rate). So don’t be surprised if the Bills rack up a few tackles for loss, but also give up the occasional big play or two. Player to watch: Greg Rousseau. While Rousseau is mostly known for his pass rushing (6.5 sacks, 50 pressures), he also has 15 tackles for loss on the season, which ranks third in the NFL. No one else on the Bills has more than five. Advantage: Lions +2. I’m sorry, but looking at these stats, I am not scared of the Bills defense. With Buffalo trending in the wrong direction and vulnerable to the big play, I expect Detroit’s streak of 100 rushing yards to continue with ease. The only thing that could flip this matchup is if Detroit struggles on short-yardage situations due to the Bills’ strong stuffed rate, but the Lions thrive in those opportunities, too. Bills pass offense (2nd) vs. Lions pass defense (1st) This is the chart of a legit MVP candidate. Josh Allen and the Bills passing offense have been fantastic this year, and there’s no way around it. Allen has cleaned up the turnovers (18 interceptions last year, five this year), and it’s resulted in career-high efficiency marks. Thus far, the Bills rank: 9th in yards per attempt (7.7) 6th in passer rating (101.6) 1st in dropback EPA (0.303) 7th in dropback success rate (50.5%) Allen, himself, ranks fourth in PFF grade (89.3) and first in ESPN’s QBR (76.8). The Bills parted ways with Stefon Diggs and, instead, took the approach of diversifying their receiving corps. They now spread the wealth between Khalil Shakir (735 receiving yards), rookie Keon Coleman (417), tight end Dalton Kincaid (356), and trade deadline acquisition Amari Cooper (231 in five games). They also have a strong pass protecting offensive line. As a team, they rank eighth in PFF pass blocking grade (73.8), sixth in pass block win rate (68%), 11th in pressure rate (30.7%), and first in sack rate (3.2%). Although Allen’s escapability certainly factors into the team’s low sack rate. Injuries may not have taken their toll on the Lions’ overall record, but you can certainly see the impact on this chart. Prior to all the Thanksgiving injuries, the Lions had only allowed a passer rating above 91 in a single game. Now they’ve ceded 95+ passer ratings in back-to-back games. It hasn’t been a complete disaster—Detroit still managed to hold both teams below 230 net passing yards. But they’ve understandably taken a step back recently. It’s unclear how many players the Lions will get back this week. Edge defender Josh Paschal seems the most likely given he was a full participant in Thursday’s practice, but DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike could also return. Where the Lions will remain shorthanded is at linebacker. Not only will Alex Anzalone remain out for at least a couple more weeks, but now they could be short another player with Trevor Nowaske in concussion protocol. Expect to see a lot of Jack Campbell, Ezekiel Turner, Kwon Alexander, Jamal Adams, and David Long. Hopefully, those newcomers are a little more comfortable after being rushed into the lineup last week. Anyway, back to the numbers. For the season, Detroit ranks: 10th in yards per attempt (6.9) 1st in passer rating (76.5) 2nd in dropback EPA (-0.077) 8th in dropback success rate (43.2%) The Lions remain a stout, aggressive unit. While the pass rush has slowed, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has dialed up the blitz to compensate, and Detroit now ranks fourth in blitz rate (35.0%). Player to watch: Allen. It’s a boring pick, but he’s a game-changer. Detroit will try to crush the pocket around him, but if Allen can get outside—and he will—he’s the most dangerous out-of-pocket quarterback in football. 9th in yards per attempt (7.7) 6th in passer rating (101.6) 1st in dropback EPA (0.303) 7th in dropback success rate (50.5%) Advantage: Bills +1.5. This may be the tightest matchup in the game. It’s elite unit vs. elite unit, but I have to give the edge to Buffalo for two reasons. First, Josh Allen is an alien who can create something out of nothing. Second, the Lions aren’t trending in a great direction—albeit in a small sample size. Bills run offense (5th) vs. Lions run defense (6th) The Bills rushing attack is all over the place. Surprisingly, they’ve only rushed for over 150 yards twice all season, but they’ve surpassed 100 in all but three games. They’ve kept high-efficiency numbers all season, though, only being held below 4.0 yards per carry four times this year. For the season, Buffalo ranks ninth in yards per carry (4.5), third in rush EPA (0.048), and sixth in success rate (44.1%). Their success is a mix of several influences. While the run blocking grades out as average (20th in run block win rate, 14th in PFF grade), James Cook has been very good. He ranks 10th in PFF rushing grade and his +0.6 rushing yards over expected per rush ranks 11th. Oh, and Josh Allen is a problem, too (416 yards, 9 TDs). The Lions defense finally turned a corner at the midway point of the season and seems to have settled in nicely. There have been some issues in recent weeks with injuries, but they still rank highly in just about every category. 5th in EPA (-0.144) 3rd in success rate (35.4%) 12th in YPC (4.3) 15th in stuffed rate (17.1%) But let’s talk about it recently. In the past two weeks, Detroit ranks 21st in rush EPA (0.011) and 24th in success rate (45.5%). Now, Detroit should get Alim McNeill back this week after missing most of the Packers game, but the tipping point this week could be the status of nose tackle DJ Reader. It’s unclear at this point if he’ll play, but he’s such a critical part of the Lions’ run defense, and his replacements (Pat O’Connor and Brodric Martin) can’t occupy blocks like he can. Player to watch: McNeill. Assuming he clears concussion protocol, McNeill has a chance to make a big impact on an average Bills interior offensive line. McNeill is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss with seven. Advantage: Bills + 1. At full health, I think the Lions may have the advantage in this matchup. But with a decimated linebacking corps and Reader’s status still in question—plus Allen’s mobility—I just don’t have enough confidence Detroit can stop Buffalo on the ground. That said, I don’t expect Buffalo to run all over them. Detroit has done a good job mitigating the damage, and in a high-scoring affair, I wouldn’t be surprised if the running game takes a backseat for the Bills. Last week’s prediction Last week, I threaded the needle of picking the Lions, but the Packers with the points—which turned out to be the case. That moves On Paper to 12-1 overall and 9-4 against the spread. The only real miss from the article was Detroit’s running game, which struggled. I only gave them a +1 advantage against the Packers, though, so I feel pretty good overall about the breakdown. In the comment section, almost everyone was in the ballpark of the actual score, but surprisingly, there was only one perfect 34-31 Lions prediction: Canadaler. Congratulations, here’s your prize: Presenting a new app for your favorite NFL team! When injuries have plagued your roster, and you don’t have time to develop your own young players, use SCOREDASH! They’ll deliver veteran players to your door who are ready to play right then and there. Please be aware that SCOREDASH drivers could potentially poach your players before they arrive. We are not responsible for any lost players. This week’s prediction: The Lions come out with a +1.5 advantage. To be honest, I was surprised to find that I wasn’t that afraid of the Bills defense. I’m far from the first person to say this, but it certainly seems like a shootout is on the horizon. And, quite frankly, I think the Lions are the better team on the defensive side of the ball, even with all the injuries. The difference in this game may simply be the defense that gets one or two stops. Lions 38, Bills 34.