Dec 04, 2024
Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK In this week’s Honolulu Blueprint, we re-examine the Lions Week 9’s keys to victory and explore where to make adjustments when they face the Packers in Week 14. The Detroit Lions (11-1) will host their second divisional game in a row in Week 14, as they welcome the Green Bay Packers (9-3) on “Thursday Night Football.” Detroit won the first battle between these two teams in Week 9, and like the Lions, we’ll revisit our previous game plan to see what worked. “Yeah, there’ll be some carryover,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said of leaning on their Week 9 game plan to guide them in Week 14. “There will be enough carryover, I’m sure for them, as well as us. Things that they did well against us, things that we did well, and then you just kind of play off of that. And there will be wrinkles on both sides. The weather affected a couple of things, but I think all in all, the blueprints are there for either team, however you want to look at it. So, I don’t see anything being too significant and we get wrinkles every week. We always get something that’s tendency breakers, now. So, we pretty much expect that.” So, let’s take a look at Week 9’s Honolulu Blueprint, explore what was successful, what wasn’t, and any alterations that need to be made for Week 14. Packers base schemes For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 9 Preview: Breaking down Packers’ offensive and defensive schemes. Key 1: Turnovers could decide this game Did it work? YES Not only did Kerby Joseph’s interception return for a touchdown end up being the deciding factor in this game, but the Lions also forced three Jordan Love fumbles—fortunately for the Packers, they were able to recover all three. Meanwhile, the Lions did not turn the ball over once, despite the Packers entering the game as the best team in the NFL at forcing turnovers, with 19 turnovers over just eight games. What’s changed? Both teams have slowed down The Packers' average forced turnovers has dropped from 2.4 to 1.9 per game. That’s still good enough to check in at fourth in the NFL on the season, but they’ve only forced four turnovers in the past four games. On offense, Love’s consecutive interception streak ended at nine games (with 11 total interceptions on the season), and he’s not thrown an interception in the most recent two weeks. It’ll come as no surprise that the Packers have two of the most impressive offensive outings over that time, producing at least 30 points scored in each game. For the Lions, they average less than a turnover (0.9) a game on offense, which is seventh-best in the NFL. And in all non-Texans games, the Lions are averaging just 0.5 turnovers per game, which would lead the NFL. The Lions' defense forced 19 turnovers over their first nine games, but have failed to produce a turnover in their most recent two games. Adjustments? Keep the same strategy — improve on recent results The Lions need to be opportunistic, as again, turnovers could be the deciding factor in this game. What needs to improve is the recent results from both teams' previous two games. The Lions recognize that they will need to get back to creating turnovers—while simultaneously forcing the Packers to break their streak of holding onto the ball—and they’re working on just that at practice this week. “Just continue to emphasize it,” Campbell said on Tuesday. “We’re so close and that has been a point of emphasis this week, things we’ve talked about in practice. We got some yesterday, which was good, and we know that’s going to be a pivotal part of this game, as any game, we’ve got to take care of the football on offense, defense we’ve got to come away with them if we get our hands on them. So, we just emphasize it, keep working it.” Key 2: Attack the seams and intermediate level of the defense Did it work? Yes — but the weather played a factor With the Packers leaning on a single high safety over 50% of the time and playing zone defense at least 70% of the time, the Lions’ best method of attack in the passing game is in the seams and at the intermediate level. With no Jameson Williams to stretch the field in Week 9, combined with inclement weather, the Lions leaned heavily on their rushing attack and turned to short passes and YAC when they went to the air. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the way with seven receptions in that game, which is no surprise considering the style of defense the Packers run. What’s changed? They play in Ford Field’s dome this week With weather a non-factor in this game, as well as the return of Williams, the Lions will have opportunities they did not have in Week 9. Adjustments? Lean on JAMO to open up the field underneath Because of the frequency of single-high formations, the Lions would be best served by testing the range of the Packers secondary. The easiest way to do this is to see how many defensive backs they’re willing to assign to JAMO on deep passes. If they roll a safety over the top, there will be advantages underneath, that the Lions can take advantage of. The most notable advantage the Lions will likely have is with St. Brown, who will more often than not be matched up with safeties—likely rookie Javon Bullard. Additionally, Sam LaPorta, who has suddenly found his chemistry with Jared Goff again, could draw coverage from linebackers. which again, sets up well for Detroit’s offense. Key 3: Red zone efficiency Did it work? YES In Week 9, both teams entered the red zone four times, but the Lions walked away with two touchdowns, while the Packers only had one. What’s changed? Both teams have improved When comparing the Lions' offense and the Packers' defense, things are about the same. In Week 9, the Lions offense scored touchdowns on 65% of their offensive trips, and that number slightly increased to 66% in Week 14 (sixth best in the NFL). The Packers' defense matched that output, surrendering a touchdown on 60% of red zone trips in Week 9, and lowering that number to 59% in Week 14 (20th). There was a more significant change when looking at the other side of this matchup. The Packers' offense was scoring just 50% of the time in the red zone in Week 9, but have managed to bump that up to 55% in Week 14 (15th best in the NFL). But the Lions have improved even further. Entering Week 9, the Lions were allowing touchdowns to be scored in the red zone just 47.3% of the time, but they’ve dropped that number down to 41.9% of the time in Week 14 (second best). Adjustments? None This remains one of the Lions' biggest advantages in this game. In the four games since they played the Packers in Week 9, the Lions offense has entered the red zone 17 times, scoring 12 touchdowns, for an impressive 70.5% success rate. Over that same timeframe, the Lions defense has only allowed teams to enter the red zone eight times and only allowed three touchdowns, that’s only 37.5% of the time. If the Lions can continue to double up the success rate of red zone attempts vs. defended, they’ll have a massive advantage. Key 4: Stay in base defense and make your tackles Did it work? No — but the weather could’ve played a factor here The Lions did play a fair amount of base coverage in this game, but that’s become more common of late. The Lions had about a 50/50 split between base and their subpackages, which is close to standard at this point of the season. The Lions missed eight tackles when they played the Packers in Week 9, the third most they’ve had in a game this season. The rainy weather certainly could take some of the responsibility here, but it’s worth noting that the Packers only missed five tackles, so it’s hard to put all the blame on the conditions. What’s changed? The Pack’s YAC Entering Week 9, the Packers were finding a lot of success with yards after the catch (YAC), generating the eighth-most YAC and fourth-most YAC over expectations. Since then, they've dropped to 12th in YAC and seventh in YAC over expectations. Not devastating drops, but they do move from being in the top 10 in both categories, to being just above-average in each. While the passing YAC has declined a touch, the run game has improved. Entering this game, the Packers are averaging 3.52 yards after contact on runs, which is the second-best mark in the NFL as a team. For Josh Jacobs, he is averaging 3.6 yards after contact, which is currently seventh-best in the NFL. Adjustments? Keep focus on stopping the run There was nothing wrong with the strategy but the execution needs to be better. With a defensive front-seven that will have new faces contributing this week, expect the Lions to be heavily focused on stopping the run. This is always priority No. 1 for the Lions, but the Packers have been very efficient with their rushing attack, and slowing their offense down starts with slowing down their run game. Up front, they’ll need to set their edges and make their tackles, and let the secondary deal with the passing game.
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