BILLS BURIED? How much snow will fall in Orchard Park this weekend?
Nov 29, 2024
It wouldn't be November/December in Orchard Park without at least one lake effect snowstorm, right? Lake Effect Snow Warnings are up for areas downwind of Lake Erie, including Orchard Park, as a favorable setup for intense snowfall will bury parts of WNY in several feet of fresh fluff. However, it's unlikely Orchard Park will be the big "winner" in terms of snow totals from this one. That said, that doesn't mean there won't be plenty of impactful snow to contend with.
Fluctuating winds over the next 48 hours will likely drive the intense snow band northward toward the Buffalo Southtowns later Saturday into Saturday night. This will allow heavy snow to begin to fall outside Highmark Stadium as conditions quickly deteriorate. Model guidance remains consistent with the idea of a very sharp gradient in snow totals on the north side of this band (common in setups like this). That will lead to feast-or-famine type snow totals over very small north/south distances. Of note, models might be a tad too far south with placement of this band. If it does indeed make it all that way to the south side of Buffalo, Orchard Park should expect to see over a foot of snow (at least) already on the ground by Sunday morning. Emphasis on the "at least".
Snow will then continue to fall through the first part of Sunday, heavy at times. This will almost certainly impact travel into the area, particularly those coming up from the south. The Thruway could be impossible for travel with SEVERAL feet of snow likely having already fallen. Winds will be in the process of shifting again later Sunday into Sunday night. This will force the primary snow band south of Orchard Park, allowing snow to relent over the stadium. The timing of this shift remains in doubt, but it's inevitable. It is likely that will shift the heavy snow out of the picture for the game itself, but it's going to be a close call with timing.
I'll say this, the fact this is a night game versus afternoon likely helps. It buys more time for that heavy snow to shift southward. But it also means it's colder. Expect temperatures in the upper 20s with wind chills in the teens at kickoff. Those of you with tickets should monitor traffic status updates, particularly if you plan on taking I-90 coming south to north. Those heading in from Rochester will only encounter transient snow showers, which should pick up a bit Sunday night after the game in that shifting wind flow. But it's manageable.