Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK Breaking down one key matchup from Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions with a deep statistical dive. We all know the drill. Realistically, the Detroit Lions need this win even more than the fledgling Caleb Williams-led Chicago Bears—even with Matt Eberflus’ scorching-hot seat. Dan Campbell, Jared Goff, and the entire Lions nucleus need their first win in front of the Lions loyalists for what was once their one and only annual national spotlight game. The Lions haven’t won on Thanksgiving since Taylor Decker’s rookie season (2016). Back when it was Year 1 under the combination of the failed odd couple pairing of Jim Caldwell and new general manager Bob Quinn. During that losing streak, the Bears have beaten the Lions three times in front of the Ford Field faithful for their treacherous Turkey tradition (2018, 2019, 2021). These are better times and the entire franchise and fan base deserves this next rite of passage as a true contender. On the short week, I’ll be going in-depth on one key matchup against the Bears. For more preview articles checkout Erik Schlitt’s Honolulu Blueprint and Jeremy Reisman’s On Paper. Let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against with their Windy City neighbears in my key matchup. Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro. Huffing it on foot This Thanksgiving Day game will be the first time in a long time that this old NFC Central Black and Blue divisional matchup includes two top-10 defenses. But when you pull back the armor on the Bears defense, there are areas that the Lions offense is well-suited to exploit. In general, the Chicago Bears, defense is top 10 in most major metrics: points allowed, EPA allowed, and DVOA. The strength of the defense is their pass defense, which has been one of the strongest units in football. The Lions game plan should play to their own strengths and rely on their ground game. There should be second and third helpings of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and perhaps a Jameson Williams end around for dessert—to the point where the Bears’ run defense is already uncomfortable, unbuttoned, and been stuffed to the brim. I expect for Jared Goff to only need to rely on high percentage play action passes carving up the middle of the defense and not be asked to carry the whole meal. The Bears defense is actually average-to-subpar against the run. They allow a -0.06 EPA/rush (14th) but are only 30th in run defense DVOA at 5.6%. The Bears are also bottom 10 in the NFL allowing 40 10+ yard rushes (22nd), a 15.1% stuff rate (25th), +0.65 rush yards over expectation/attempt (27th), and 1.84 yards before contact/attempt (26th). That’s a number of avenues where the Lions could take advantage producing plus yards on the ground. The Eberflus defense has a few telling tendencies that their opponents have illustrated for the Lions. Bears opponents are able to run the ball into light boxes on 52.2% of runs (eighth highest rate), they run inside of the offensive tackles 53.5% of the time (fourth highest), and they run on first down 58.8% of the time (sixth highest). The code to crack for Ben Johnson will be to set-up successful runs into light boxes, on first down, and inside the tackles. The Lions offensive line didn’t consistently win at the point of attack or control the line of scrimmage against the Colts, but they’ll need to against the Bears. The Lions rushing offense only runs inside the tackles on 37.1% of rushes (fifth lowest) but when they do they average +0.15 EPA/rush (second), are only stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage 9.8% of the time (second lowest), they have a 50.0% success rate (sixth), provide an impressive 1.88 yards before contact/attempt (first), and despite the low volume on inside runs have still ripped off 18 10+ yard runs (seventh). Teams that are able to consistently pound the rock on first down against the Bears are able to consistently move the ball and control the game. On runs against the Bears on first down, teams have generated 28 10+ yard runs or 2.5 per game (second highest). They’ve also been able to fight for additional yards—say less to David Montgomery—by averaging a full 3.32 yards after contact/attempt (seventh highest). The Bears get caught in light boxes (<7 defenders), against the run on 48% of first downs (seventh most) and the statistics illustrate this being their toughest situation in run defense. The Bears have faced 85 runs on first down this season against light boxes which equates to 7.7 per game. Almost eight first downs per game that Montgomery, Gibbs, and the Lions run blockers will potentially face less than seven defenders. There isn’t a team that should be more equipped to capitalize on having a mathematical advantage pre-snap. From first down light boxes, the Bears defense allows 5.8 rushing yards/carry (29th), an astounding 17 10+ yard rushes (32nd), +0.05 EPA/rush (27th), a whopping +1.97 rushing yards over expectation/attempt (32nd), 2.21 yards before contact/attempt (26th), and 3.65 yards after contact/attempt (27th). The numbers are staggering at how opponents are able to attack the Bears, in favorable matchups, on first down. Even based on pre-snap alignment, personnel, and distance, Next Gen Stats analytically attributes the Bears’ first down defense, against light boxes, with allowing 157 rushing yards over expectation. That’s last in the NFL with the next closest being the putrid Carolina Panthers’ run defense only allowing +100 RYOE/att. The Lions also should feast on first down, regardless of the number of the defenders in the box, when running outside the tackles (potentially off of Penei Sewell’s backside). The Lions already attack the edges and run outside on 59% of their runs (eighth most). They do so, in part, because they can rely on their tight ends and wide receivers to block better than most skill positions players in the NFL. Trimming the margins by winning on the edges. The Bears defense has been exposed against runs outside of the tackles. In such situations they allow 6.0 yards/rush (31st), 18+ 10 yard runs, (29th), +0.06 EPA/rush, (29th), +149 RYOE (32nd), 2.16 yards before contact/attempt (27th), and 3.85 yards after contact/attempt (28th). The Lions offense, particularly Montgomery and Gibbs, have numerous avenues for success early and often. They can continue to stay ahead of the sticks and put Goff in favorable positions to succeed by winning on first down, then playing up-tempo with the same personnel against predictably light defenses. One last anecdote: If you recall, the Lions had success against the Colts by running on third-and-manageable or third-and-long. While it is a small sample size, the Bears defense, on third-and-mid (3-6 yards), have given up 10.3 yards/rush (fourth highest), 4.80 rush yards over expectation/attempt (third), and an astounding 8.36 yards before contact/attempt (32nd). The Lions should really be able to ride their rushing attack on early downs and set up running on late downs. In addition to the Bears’ early-down run struggles that have been highlighted, it’s worth noting that the Bears will be down some key personnel (as every NFL team is this time of year). The central figure in the Bears’ run defense is veteran defensive tackle Andrew Billings, who went down with a torn pectoral muscle in Week 9. The Bears have struggled to replace him since. Jaquan Brisker is also one of the best young safeties, particularly as an enforcer, in football. Unfortunately, Brisker has been out with an ominous, yet scary, head injury since Week 5. For the Lions, it would be like having Brian Branch and DJ Reader out. The Lions’ game plan against the Bears likely dictates that they eat the entirety of the clock by rarely seeing second-and-long. As I mentioned at the top, the Bears have a strong pass defense. That said, it is worth noting that in the last two weeks, the Bears have been exposed with their worst coverage capabilities. In Week 11, against the Packers, the Bears allowed a +0.61 EPA/pass and against the Vikings and, in Week 12, they allowed a +0.27 EPA/play when through Weeks 1-10 they hadn’t allowed higher than a +0.15 EPA/play in a single game. This game is under a microscope for everyone involved with the Lions given their recent tortuous Thanksgiving history. However, when factoring in the opponent, the Lions really shouldn’t be threatened by this Bears team currently riding a five-game losing streak. The Lions should have 35 minutes of time of possession and a comfortable double-digit lead for most of the game barring Caleb Williams going nuclear and turning out a career game. Trap games are few and far between with this Dan Campbell regime, and something tells me this game means more for them. Here is looking forward to Montgomery and Gibbs sharing a Turducken postgame.