5 Qs Lions vs. Bears preview: How Chicago’s new OC brought rhythm back to the offense
Nov 26, 2024
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
What’s been different with the Bears offense since they made a switch at offensive coordinator? We asked @WCGridiron about the Thanksgiving day matchup between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears. More Detroit Lions football is right around the corner, and we would never pass up the opportunity to get some intel from the opponent’s perspective. We called on Bill Zimmerman to give us some insight into the Chicago Bears, the systemic changes with their offense, the development of Caleb Williams, and how the rest of this Bears team is shaping up ahead of this Week 13 matchup.
General manager Ryan Poles spent this offseason loading up the skill positions around Caleb Williams, bringing in veterans like Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift, but also spending the No. 9 overall pick on Rome Odunze. Adding those players to go alongside D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet, the Bears offense had some high hopes despite it being led by a rookie quarterback.
The Bears got off to a hot start at 4-2, but they’ve dropped five straight games since their bye week, averaging just 14.6 points per game over the stretch–24.6 points per game over their 4-2 start.
What or who’s to blame for the stark dropoff in scoring points since the team’s bye, and how is Chicago trying to right the ship?
The change at offensive coordinator has been a huge boost for the offense. Yes, the Bears are only averaging 14.6 since the bye but they’ve averaged 23 points per game in their last two games under Thomas Brown and they crashed to 9 PPG the final three games of Shane Waldron’s tenure. There were some rumblings that things weren’t going well offensively behind closed doors prior to the bye, despite the strong games against Carolina and Jacksonville, players were calling meetings and there was something about Shane Waldron that just wasn’t clicking.
For whatever reason, it really was exposed after the bye. The offense became really static, the passing concepts were oddly bunched and there was no flow to the play-calling. Caleb Williams was holding onto the football way too long because the receivers weren’t separating and he wasn’t getting rid of the football before the pass rush got home against the Bears’ mediocre offensive line. It’s been a remarkable transformation in the offense the last two weeks and it’s shocking how an offensive coordinator who had mild success in Seattle became a complete debacle in Chicago, but those type of things always seem to be the Bears MO. It will be interesting to see if the offense can continue to play at this level against the difficult competition they have the rest of the way.
Williams has completed 77.0% of his attempts for 937 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions when getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds this season, compared to a 51.7% completion percentage for 1,419 yards, six touchdowns, and five interceptions when taking over 2.5 seconds to throw.
Since firing Shane Waldron after Week 10, Caleb Williams has averaged the 8th-quickest time to throw (2.66) among quarterbacks, compared to having the 8th-longest time to throw (3.03) over the first ten weeks.
Under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, how has that clear emphasis on getting the ball out quicker had an impact on not only Williams, but the offense as a whole?
I think the most important thing is the rhythm of the offense looks so much better. As I mentioned before, the Bears’ offensive line isn’t good, so if Williams is holding onto the football too long, he’s probably going to get himself in trouble with the pass rush. Brown has clearly emphasized making sure Williams plays on time and plays quickly and makes the read and fires the ball in confidence. We saw that type of play from Williams against Carolina and Jacksonville, but he and Waldron got completely away from it after the bye.
Williams has also beaten the blitz really well the last two weeks, which, as you know, is crucial when you play the Minnesota Vikings. Williams has been reading the blitz well and been hitting the defense where the blitzer vacates and doing it quickly before the rest of the defense can recover from the blitzing area. It’s been fun to watch this particular part of development from Williams because you can’t blitz elite QBs because they’ll always hurt you and Williams doing this already as a rookie is very promising moving forward in his career.
The Bears' defense helped them get off to that aforementioned hot start, but since then, it’s taken a step back, especially when it comes to stopping the run. While Chicago ranks 19th in team defense DVOA, they currently sit at 30th in rush defense DVOA, allowing seven of their 11 opponents to rush for 120+ yards.
Where are the breakdowns happening for Chicago in run defense, and is there hope for the run defense to be any better this week–or in the near future?
The run defense wasn’t particularly strong before the bye, but they were making just enough stops to get bye. Part of their issue early on was that Gervon Dexter, while developing really well as an interior pass rusher, had not done well stopping the run and many teams targeted him and ran right at him.
If you watch the Colts tape, you’ll see Johnathan Taylor run at him for most of his carries. The other issue is that the defensive line depth is paper-thin. That forces all the DL to carry the burden of a heavy snap load and they just don’t have the gas they need to stop the run in the fourth quarter. Making matters worse these last few weeks is the loss of Andrew Billings. Billings has been one of Ryan Poles’ most valuable free agent additions. He’s an absolute load in the middle that needed constant double teams but despite them, he was still disrupting plays. He’s out for the year and a huge loss for their run defense.
In short, I don’t think it’s going to get any better.
Is there a player or two you could highlight from this Bears team that may fly under the radar nationally and will ultimately surprise Lions’ fans by their level of compete?
I’ll give you one on offense and one on defense. Defensively, I’m going to give you Kyler Gordon. He was one of the Bears second-round picks three years ago and struggled as a rookie, especially because the Bears tried to work him at Nickel and at outside CB. Starting in year two, they started using him exclusively as a Nickel and he quickly developed into an impact player and this year he’s becoming one of the league’s best Nickels. He’s pretty sticky in coverage, he’s extremely athletic and he isn’t afraid to come up in the run game and make a tackle. He’s also an effective blitzer tallying 1.5 sacks and 8 TFLs as a corner over his short career. He will almost certainly make a few impact plays on Thursday.
Offensively there aren’t as many to choose from because the Bears have a lot more name recognition on their offensive unit. But as an offensive line guy, I’m going to give you left guard Teven Jenkins. Jenkins gets banged up frequently and is probably no better than an average pass blocker, but he’s a lot of fun to watch in the running game. When he gets to the second level, he absolutely punishes defenders. Last week he pancaked Harrison Smith 35 yards down the field on a screen play. If you are one to watch line play, look for 76 when the Bears run to the left or run screens to the left, you will see him put a Lions defender or two on their butts.
What’s your most lucrative nugget of Bears’ intel that a Lions fan could benefit from hearing about and putting on their bet slip for this Week 13 matchup?
I think the best thing I can offer is that the Chicago Bears defense has been struggling since the Hail Mary. It seems to have broken them. The pass rush has been weak, CB Tyrique Stevenson has been getting picked on, and the last two weeks, the Bears defense has given up, on average, over 400 yards of offense per game with a yards/play allowed approaching eight. The offense has also looked significantly better the last two weeks under Thomas Brown averaging a touch under 400 yards per game. I think most people think of the Chicago Bears and think good defense, bad offense and would consider betting the under. But the last two weeks, it’s been bad defense, good offense. If I had to suggest a best bet in the game, I would suggest betting over 48.5 total points in the game.I think the Lions win this one, but it’s tough to lay 10.5 when a late meaningless Bears touchdown could cut the point differential under 11. I think there’s plenty of points scored in this one and the over is the way to go.