Northeast Ohio’s forthcoming winter will likely be consistently “chillier” than last season, yet still stay slightly above historical temperature averages. Additionally, the region will see spread-out, lake-effect snow periods starting in early December. Those predictions, shared by AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok, also include “just below average snowfall,” but greater volume than the 2023-24 winter. Based in State College, Pennsylvania, AccuWeather provides commercial forecasting services worldwide. What Northeast Ohio can expect According to Pastelok, highs and lows will fluctuate throughout the winter. “We are not looking at a frigid winter, overall, but the period around Thanksgiving and into the first week of December can be pretty cold with occasional shots of cold throughout the winter,” the senior meteorologist said. “December through February 2023-24, was the warmest winter on record for the United States, with the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast leading the pack. “We are forecasting temperatures for the December through February time period to average 1.5 to 2.5 degrees above average,” Pastelok added. “Last winter, Northeast Ohio averaged 4.5 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average.” January’s departures, he said, can run the highest, averaging over three degrees above average, noting that last year, January was colder than December, when comparing averages. “This year, December’s temp departures could be colder than January, compared to historical averages,” Pastelok continued. “December starts wintery with brief blasts of cold air and some lake-effect snow periods, and the pattern will ease back in the second and third weeks. The opposite setup occurred last winter when little lake-effect was seen.” He added that “big changes will unfold during the opening weeks of 2025,” as a new weather pattern will likely lead to milder temperatures and less snow across the eastern half of the nation. “January can be mild compared to averages with a couple of periods where temperatures can be well above average,” Pastelok said, “However, storms may track west to east, bringing rain, snow and sleet at times — the storm track, too, could be farther south at times in February, which can be a snowier month. “A backend surge to winter could bring the potential for multiple snowstorms from the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and through the Northeast,” he added. “The risk of snow may also be accompanied by the polar vortex.” “Wet vs. Dry” The combination of rain, freezing rain and snow — generally wet snow melted down — during the winter season between November and March, where the percentage of normal precipitation averages 120 percent or greater, is counted as a “wet season,” Pastelok noted. For a dry season, he added, averages are lower than 75 percent, as “dry snow” has less water content and usually falls during colder winters. “This winter, the snow will have good water content with less arctic air masses and warmer-than-average lakes helping as well,” Pastelok said. “We are expecting a winter with rain at times due to mild conditions, wet snow, and mix events. Our snowfall forecast is below average, but nearly double compared to last year. “For example, we are going with a big range of 40-55 inches for Cleveland, which is normally around 63 inches, but the 2023-24 total was 23.7 inches.” With water temperatures over Lake Erie and other Great Lakes at near record levels, “well above average,” impact areas right along Erie will see some rain heading into December. “However, in January, lake-effect events can be brief and occasional, which is one of the reasons why we are not predicting above-average snowfall for Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania,” Pastelok said. Staying aware AccuWeather is reminding residents to remain aware this winter, especially with more snow and ice than last year, with the following general tips: • Dress appropriately • Check tires; make sure there is good treadwear to get through the season • Check batteries for flashlights • Check generators and snow equipment; give them a kick start to make sure they are working correctly • Put ice chippers and snow brushes back in vehicles Pastelok said winters are constantly different, no matter how seemingly similar at times, with factors varying outcomes. “We also want to remind people to make sure they are checking their heating systems,” he added. “A mild forecast does not mean you won’t be using them, whatever they are — remember, we live in a colder climate region.”