South County’s long-held dream of attracting a major four-year university isn’t panning out. Not a single school has committed to building a big campus on the east side of Chula Vista. Is this the moment that a community college that’s been there for decades evolves into an institution that could provide much of what the region wants? Is that even doable? Not long ago, the idea might have been laughable. Southwestern College went through 10 leaders in  about 20 years. Controversy was a constant. But now, in an unexpected turn, it’s flourishing and has big ambitions. Southwestern wants to be similar to the University of Texas system, which has deep academic and cultural roots on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, making it indispensable. It also wants to be the place employers think of first when hunting for newly trained graduates. “The sky’s the limit here — with the proper programs,” said Mark Sanchez, the 53-year-old Barrio Logan native who was appointed president of Southwestern in late 2020 and has brought stability and purpose. “Students who graduated in the past year are already meeting workforce needs at a wage that’s allowing them to be able to afford to stay in San Diego County.” It’s a comment based on discussions with students and employers. Southwestern College President Mark Sanchez stands in front of a new $101 million student union that will open in February. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune) There are signs of momentum everywhere. Southwestern enrolled a record 20,093 students this fall, rebounding from the pandemic faster than many community colleges across the state. On Nov. 5, voters approved an $800 million bond that will, among other things, enable the college to build a science center in San Ysidro, where there’s a branch campus focused on health and medicine. It may also expand its Otay Mesa campus, a training ground for police and other first responders. A pricey makeover and expansion of the school’s main campus are about to deliver dozens of new classrooms, a planetarium and a glassy student union that will be the beating heart of the 63-year-old school. There’s also a building where schools like Arizona State University, and possibly the University of Southern California and Cal State San Marcos, will offer courses that lead to bachelor’s degrees, which are in big demand locally. Southwestern also is trying to develop a limited number of its own bachelor’s degree programs, including one in architecture. And it might soon get a famous partner in UC San Diego. The two schools are discussing whether to create a joint bachelor’s program in public health. Another powerhouse, San Diego State University, may move part of its nursing program to a new city-owned building in Chula Vista, not far from Southwestern. “There’s so much going on it’s hard for faculty to get their head around it,” said Max Branscomb, a journalism professor. “What are we going to do with all of these buildings, all these outreach programs? “I think we all see bits of the elephant, but not the entire beast.” An existential threat A quieter but equally important story also is unfolding at Southwestern. The number of college students and the number of people between 18 and 24 — the demographic that produces the most college students — are in decline across the U.S. Educators attribute the drop in part to a historically low birth rate, the pandemic and the rising cost of tuition. The birth rate also has slipped in Baja California but remains comparatively high. The state is currently home to 1 million students in the K-12 range, about 400,000 of them U.S. citizens, according to Luis Gallego, Baja California’s secretary of education. He announced the new data Thursday in a talk at Southwestern. Many of these students will go on to college. Southwestern officials say the school’s long-term health will be determined by its ability to draw more students from Baja California. The college recently began heavily recruiting students at many of Tijuana’s largest high schools — sometimes with the help of incentives. One incentive in particular is stirring interest. Under a new California law, some residents of Mexico are allowed to attend California community colleges at in-state tuition prices, about $560 per semester. They’d otherwise pay non-resident tuition — roughly 10 times that at $5,600. Southwestern is finishing construction on new academic buildings on the east side of its 156-acre main campus. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune) This was made possible by a law co-authored by state Assemblymember David Alvarez, who represents South County from Barrio Logan to the border. All community college districts in San Diego and Imperial counties are able to give 150 students per semester the lower rate in a five-year pilot program. “This comes as such a relief,” said Christopher Garcia of Tijuana, one of the first Southwestern students to benefit from the law. “I’ve been working two to three jobs to pay tuition. This kind of thing can help you live the American dream.” Last year, Southwestern expanded its graduation ceremonies beyond Chula Vista to Tijuana, which has proven to be popular. Garcia’s family will watch him graduate in May. The college also has been helping many Mexico residents apply for a Global Entry pass so they can cross the border in as little as 20 to 30 minutes, rather than the hours it can otherwise take. In some cases, Southwestern helps students pay for the pass, which costs $120. The school also recently began teaching a small number of classes at CETYS University, a private school in Tijuana, and will soon do the same at the Autonomous University of Baja California, a public school in the same city. Both are situated closer to Chula Vista than UCSD and SDSU. All of these things are expected to lead to growth and demographic change. About 7.5% of Southwestern’s students live in the Tijuana area. Within a decade, the figure could rise to 25%, according to Joel Pilco, director of binational and international programs at Southwestern. Christopher Garcia, 21, will be graduating from Southwestern College next spring. Garcia crosses the U.S.-Mexico border every day at Otay Mesa on his way to school and work. Garcia, a full-time student, also works three separate jobs to pay for school and to help with family expenses back at home in Tijuana. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune) The school’s big upswing has been noticed by former Mexican President Vicente Fox, who has provided Southwestern with guidance and support. “They’re offering programs that really appeal to a lot of students,” Fox told The San Diego Union-Tribune in a phone interview. He also said people are intrigued about getting help from a community college, something that doesn’t exist in Mexico. Most high school graduates who continue their education go straight to a university. The hard part Southwestern has as much to worry about as it does to celebrate. The school is struggling to increase the number of students who earn associate degrees and who transfer to four-year universities. These are primary missions for community colleges under California’s master plan for higher education. The problem is deeply rooted in the fact that many high school graduates aren’t academically and emotionally prepared for college. Southwestern will attempt to address the matter in July when it opens Middle College, a dual-enrollment center on campus that will be filled with students from the Sweetwater Union High School District. The program will focus on helping at-risk students earn a high school diploma and, if possible, an associate degree. The program will give students the opportunity to take the core courses that are broadly required to get into top colleges and universities, and intends to help them acclimate to college life. As many as 300 Sweetwater students are expected to attend Middle College. https://wpdash.medianewsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SUT-L-SOUTHWESTERN-VID-updated.mp4 But in general, by its own admission, Southwestern also has a mismatch problem: It trains thousands of students, but not in ways that always reflect the needs of the region’s workforce. The efforts pay big dividends when things work right. Southwestern has a large culinary program that will help staff the Gaylord Pacific Resort & Convention Center, the 22-story, $1.2 billion complex in Chula Vista that will open in late spring. The college’s large automotive program also is clicking, feeding graduates to the local corporate offices and dealerships of Mercedes-Benz and Subaru, as well as some of the maquiladora factories in Tijuana. Officials in Uruguay and Chile have reached out to Southwestern for help in training students. Students pass by one of the newest completed construction projects at Southwestern College is the math and science building. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / The San Diego Union-Tribune) Such growth has brought relief to Southwestern, which for roughly 20 years was better known for producing bad headlines. The college had deep financial, accreditation and racial problems that were largely attributed to poor management by the school’s various presidents and governing board. Things were so tense that when Sanchez became president, the board gave him only a three-year contract. “We really wanted to understand what his visions and goals would be,” said board member Roberto Alcantar. “We had a lot of bad experiences with hires that didn’t go exactly the way we thought they’d go.” The board later extended Sanchez’s contract to five years — which apparently will be as far as it goes. He told the Union-Tribune he intends to retire in two years, when he turns 55. “We’ve got to do everything we can to change his mind,” Alcantar said.