Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images Breaking down 3 key matchups from Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts with a deep statistical dive. The Detroit Lions have another business trip, as they rack up the frequent flier miles, with their fifth road trip since their bye week, a mere seven week ago. Luckily, as the snow begins falling in the Midwest, Dan Campbell’s road warriors should be right at home as they will battle on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 12. The Lions have lost five of their last six match-ups against the Indianapolis Colts dating back to the third season of Peyton Manning’s career. In those last six games, the Lions have allowed the Colts to score an average of 35.5 points/game. It’ll be a good test for Aaron Glenn’s defense to neutralize Anthony Richardson, after an inexplicable two-game hiatus riding the pine, and the well-rounded group of Colts skill players. Let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against with these indoor ponies in my three biggest matchups. Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro. Aaron Glenn Comes Knocking While Richardson’s return is a major talking point, football begins and ends in the trenches, so we’ll start by discussing the meat and potatoes involved in allowing Richardson to operate Shane Steichen’s offense. The Colts’ offensive line was stellar last season and started out that way this year before injuries ravaged them. Both center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries, who was a revelation as a first-time starter in 2023, have been on injured reserve since their Week 5 loss to the Jaguars. Additionally, their talented third-year left tackle Bernhard Rainmann injured his knee in Week 10 against the Bills and will miss his second consecutive game. That leaves third-round rookie Matt Goncalves at left tackle, fourth-round rookie Tanor Bortolini at center, and undrafted rookie Dalton Tucker at right guard. The Colts offense allows the seventh highest quarterback pressure rate in the NFL at 37.8% including a miserable 60.0% in both Weeks 7 and 8 against the Dolphins and Texans. The weakest link on the offensive line has been Tucker. Per Pro Football Focus, Tucker surrendered pressure on 15.2% of pass plays last week (second-worst rate among guards) and has the fourth-worst pass blocking efficiency rate (95.2) among all guards (out of 79). The Lions' defensive plan for destruction should involve a heavy dose of Alim McNeill and Za’Darius Smith opposite Tucker on passing downs. The Colts' offensive line issues—due to some of the lack of chemistry amidst the injuries and young players forced into action—is further magnified when the opposing team brings additional defenders. They’ve allowed the third-highest pressure rate against the blitz this season (53.0%), compared to a 32.4% pressure rate when not blitzing (11th-highest). Aaron Glenn’s Lions defense has blitzed on 35.7% of snaps this season (5th-highest rate). The Lions blitz efforts have come with mixed results. They’ve recorded just a 37.4% pressure rate when blitzing (25th). However, the Lions have allowed just a 56.7% completion percentage when blitzing this season (5th-lowest), with a league-low 62.6 passer rating allowed and 7 interceptions (tied-most). Applying consistent pressure, speeding up Richardson’s processing, and bringing him down, will be the challenge for the Lions' defense. They’ll look to do so with extra defenders coming from all over to force communication issues up front and expose their lack of cohesion. Night and Day QB play The naturally gifted, but inexperienced, Richardson didn’t make the linear progression to start his sophomore season that was expected. While his career is a small sample size, with only eleven starts, it’s noteworthy that Richardson’s passer rating had plummeted from 87.3 in 2023 to 66.2 this season. However, Richardson showed signs of progress after getting a reset while sitting behind Joe Flacco for two weeks. In his return to the starting lineup against the Jets, Richardson completed 18 of 23 pass attempts from inside the pocket for a season-high 256 yards and 1 touchdown, his highest completion percentage (78.3%) and completion percentage above expected (+7.2%) on such attempts this season. Richardson struggled passing from inside the pocket prior to Week 11, recording just a 47.4% completion percentage and -10.9% completion percentage over expectation on such attempts. If Richardson is able to play comfortably from the pocket, he’s prone to go big game hunting. Richardson is currently averaging 15.6 yards/completion which is the fourth-highest rate of any quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts in the last twenty-five seasons. The Colts have an array of talented pass catchers in Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Adonai Mitchell but it’s fourth-year receiver Alec Pierce who leads the NFL with an average of 22.7 yards/reception. Luckily the Lions, Brian Branch, and Kerby Joseph are the perfect counter punch as they lead the NFL with a -0.38 EPA/Pass on passes of 20+ air yards. The Lions' safety tandem, and entire coverage unit, could cause Richardson to make some dicey decisions trying to dial up the deep ball. Don’t Zone Out Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, the original defensive coordinator for the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom, relies heavily upon zone coverage. The Colts are second in the NFL in zone coverage rate (79.6%) which could pose some challenges for Jared Goff to overcome. Goff this season, prior to their game against the Jaguars, had crushed man coverage, throwing nine touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 144-passer rating. However, through his first nine starts, when against zone coverage, Goff had thrown seven touchdowns, nine interceptions, and only an 89-passer rating. Diving in further, per FTN Fantasy, Goff is tied with Lamar Jackson, for the league lead, with a 38.5% DVOA against Man Coverage. However, against zone coverage, Goff’s 11.1% DVOA ranks only 13th. Goff’s 27.4% differential in DVOA from man coverage to zone coverage is the third largest in the NFL. While the Colts are a zone-heavy team, they are bottom-10 in the NFL in a number of zone metrics including allowing a 38.2% first down-plus-touchdown rate, 7.45 yards per coverage snap, and 8.9 yards per coverage target (Per PFF). Goff will look to Amon-Ra St. Brown to succeed against their zone concepts. This season, against zone, St. Brown has caught 54 receptions for 567 receiving yards and a 28.9% target share on 225 routes run. The goal for Goff and the Lions will be to get comfortable by peppering passes St. Brown’s way and avoiding any costly turnovers on the road this week.