N.Y. Democrats face the future: What our pols can learn from the election
Nov 24, 2024
While most elected officials in New York weren’t happy with the results of the presidential election, there’s still a lot to learn if you’re paying attention.
First, stop pretending up is down. Team Biden and then Team Harris insisted the economy was excellent. Statistically, they were right. But voters know what their groceries cost. Not only did they reject the premise, they resented it. Eric Adams has the same problem. Statistically, crime isn’t that bad. But tell that to the average New Yorker. To them, the city feels dirty, dangerous, lawless.
Whether it’s the still thousands of illegal weed shops operating (despite real progress by Adams in closing many of them), endless scaffolding, locked up toothpaste at CVS, bikes on every sidewalk or mentally ill people whacked out on tranq roaming the subways and streets, the city doesn’t feel good. Trying to tell the voters otherwise won’t work. That’s why Trump won 30% of the local vote. Treat voters like intelligent adults, acknowledge where we realistically are, and go from there.
Second, money can only take you so far. Kamala Harris outspent Donald Trump but still lost. Adams has done right by many of his big 2021 supporters, especially the Hotel Trades Council and the Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY).
Right now, Adams is deciding whether to sign or veto the FARE Act, legislation recently passed by the City Council 42-8 to finally eliminate forced broker’s fees for rentals. My foundation, Tusk Philanthropies, commissioned a poll that found that 66% of local registered Democrats want Adams to sign the bill. REBNY desperately wants Adams to veto it. Let’s say REBNY promises him a seven figure positive ad campaign. Adams will still be humiliated by the Council when they override his veto and telling New Yorkers that being forced to pay exorbitant fees is actually good for them is never going to fly. They know better.
Third, the echo chamber of the left on Twitter and MSNBC in no way reflects more than a subset of Democratic primary voters. When everyone you know reads and watches the same thing, it’s easy to convince yourself that everyone — everywhere — must feel that way. They don’t.
Personally, I’m willing to give congestion pricing a try. But Gov. Hochul’s decision to appease the left and reinstate the measure feels like the worst of all worlds. Now everyone’s upset and even if the left grants her a temporary reprieve, they’ll find something else to be unhappy about soon enough.
Fourth, authenticity matters. Trump is crazy, but he’s authentically crazy. His most effective ad was the clip of Harris saying her administration would fully fund gender reassignment surgery for federal prisoners who want it. Yes, the policy itself seems very off, but that wasn’t the real problem. The problem was that it was obvious Harris didn’t believe what she was saying.
She pivoted far left during her 2020 presidential campaign because that’s where the energy was. Once voters feel like you stand for nothing except your own ambition, they stop respecting you. That may not be how Harris actually is, but it’s certainly how she came off there. Say what you think, not what you think everyone wants to hear.
Based on the presidential results, the chess board for New York politics seems slightly clearer (although new indictments could upend it again). Tish James seems to really like being attorney general, she’s very good at it, and continuing to use that office to stop the worst of the Trump administration is probably the best thing she can do.
Andrew Cuomo has a lot in common with Trump, which not only makes him a more viable candidate for mayor, it means that if he ran as an independent and if the GOP line were left blank, he could be competitive that way too, running an anti-elite, outer borough focused campaign where many Manhattanites quietly vote for him anyway. Cuomo at City Hall and James remaining as AG bodes well for Hochul’s reelection, though it seems likely that someone like Congressman Ritchie Torres would then take a shot at unseating her in the primary.
No matter who runs for what, the lessons should be clear. Treat voters with respect and intelligence. Say what you mean. Don’t confuse your echo chamber with real life. Acknowledge what isn’t working and set out to fix it. And don’t think that money matters more than anything else. The candidates who take these lessons to heart are the people who will be running our city and state for years to come.
Tusk is a venture capitalist, political strategist and philanthropist.